Taking a lot of plus numbers today, not sure how accurate these are

Only one place in Vegas has props. Even 5D doesn't have them. What is going on

Proj SOG:

https://pastebin.com/4PaUfitU

Here's what I got at my one spot.

OReilly o2.5 100
Marchand o3 130
Krejci o1.5 100 **
Pastrnak o3 100
DeBrusk o2 100
Pietrangelo u2.5 -115 ** (big one)

Lets try out Score a Point or Goal. Here's what I think are fair lines (do you have the same POOGS?)

To Score a Point
YES NO
McAvoy 39.34 60.66
Perron 47.27 52.73
Pietrangelo 42.88 57.12
Krug 41.73 58.27
Oreilly 58.1 41.9
Coyle 32.29 67.71

To Score a Goal
YES NO
Bergeron 30.23 69.77
Pastrnak 34.3 65.7
Schwartz 16.47 83.53
Tarasenko 37.5 62.5
Marchand 36.87 63.13


I got these on Bookmaker

Perron Yes Point 130
OReilly Yes Point -120
Krug No Point -115
Coyle No Point -150

Didn't see any value in yes/no score a goal

one more Even bet too

NYA/TOR E +130 1u

Not a lot of value out there in NBA. I'd worry about DeMarcus Cousins. It's clear he's broken.

Proj Rebounds June 7

https://pastebin.com/xwrvys59

Proj Assists June 7

https://pastebin.com/YzRJ4Q5T

Proj Assists + Rebounds

https://pastebin.com/Y0BKNAfT

Proj Steals

https://pastebin.com/7UtiCwQk

Proj Blocks

https://pastebin.com/PLcYksit

Gasol o6.5 Rebounds -115
VanVleet o4.5 Assists+Rebounds -115
Leonard u4 Assists -115
Gasol u3.5 Assists -115
Lowry o11.5 Assists+Rebounds -115
Lowry o6.5 Assists -115
Danny Green u3.5 Rebounds -115
Ibaka u6.5 Assists+Rebounds -115

Here's what I got. Biggest value on VanVleet. Rest are about the same.

Marchand o3 +127 on BB

GSL Season 2 Ro.8 Day 2
Friday, Jun 07 11:00pm CDT (GMT-05:00)

Parting (-123) v Hurricane (-116)

Any thoughts on this match? I am actually way behind in SC2 for this year and haven't seen many of Parting's games but he's clearly actually back and dedicated. Despite this being Hurricane's first GSL Top 8, I've been hearing his name for years as a practice partner. Again it's PvP so anything can happen but PvP is so micro-oriented and Parting has always been god-tier micro. I expect Hurricane will be bringing tons of unique strategies and one-off builds, but kind of expecting him to choke here in the Top 8 as he has done many times before. I would definitely favor Stats, Classic, herO, Zest, etc. way over Hurricane but maybe Hurricane can pick on a rusty old-timer?

Historically PvP is Hurricane's best match-up but he's recently 3-15 in it including an 0-3 loss to Parting in the 2019 Super Tournament I. He did 2-1 Parting at IEM though so he can definitely win.

Aligulac gives Hurricane 57% favorite.

little bit of inside info...the bruins had a scrimmage before they left for STL and marchard and clifton ran into each other. marchand seemed to have jammed his hand and was seen in pain and shaking it. hes been pretty bad since then, lots of people think he has a hand injury. I havent looked at his recent shot attempts but hes had only one SOG in the past two games. Im on over .5 points for him tonight cuz the line was decent but I dont like it. If I had anywhere to bet SOG id look for him to be under

oh good sigs is on over 3 shots

marchand has 4 shots now

can they take any away?

6-3-1 on NHL, not bad. Lost two big ones so only picked up lil more than one max bet. That Pietrand 3rd shot was suspect. Dude was just clearing the puck and since the goalie touched it instead of icing it counts as a shot on goal? Guy was on the other side of the ice

BOS/KCA E +130 1u WIN +1.3
NYA/TOR E +130 1u WIN +1.3
Yesterday: 2-0 +2.6u
Total: 6-8 +2.4u

nice day on evens

and the coup de however you spell the rest of it. If Tyler Skaggs u5.5 holds

Risk: Net: ROI:
25020 18685.20 74.68

Imagine if the Mariners weren't stupid and just started Milone? Easily would have been 23k

What a beautiful ride this MLB Strikeouts journey has been. I'm glad you were here for it.

Remember when we were made fun of for betting into such a "small" market. Now we made enough in 2 months to buy 2 2019 Dodge Rams 3500 with minimal effort

Curry o5.5 Reb -114
Curry o11.5 Reb/Ast -114
Green o18.5 Reb/Ast -103
Green o10 Reb -114

On BB this fine AM

Not DNRS or TomG Total K's 6/7/19

https://pastebin.com/Dntpzeeh

IDK the limits at Pinny (or maybe @ SBO or another Asian bookmaker) but Rito bets on like English & Phillipines basketball totals, not sure why he was slandering betting MLB props lol.

Marlins +180
Nats -102
Mariners +177

first crack at NBA projections. my "model" is just using advanced stats from the '18-'19 season with some playoff multipliers for eFG%, FTr, and pace. also using Rotogrinders minutes projections.

it's probably bad - I have TOR -1 in this game somehow. FiveThirtyEight has GSW -1 and Vegas has GSW -4.5. FiveThirtyEight uses a "playoff experience multiplier" for their team ratings that I didn't use, but it barely moves the needle for this matchup anyway.

I don't have time right now to figure out % chance of going over or under for props (I think I need to find standard deviations and then use the log normal distribution?), so sorry about that.

any feedback is appreciated, boys





potential problems that come to mind:
-using some Raptors source stats from the pre-Gasol team
-not accounting for broken DeMarcus Cousins

i think nba playoffs have bigger home/away and series status adjustments compared to the regular season aka zigzag theory so you'll have to handle it differently than a regular season hfa adjustment

that would move my #s more in line with 538. who knows if that's a good thing.

surprisingly, Klay being in or out is not moving my spread much. is this true for anyone else?

so is this DeanO's four factor model? i don't model nba but it's my understanding that's how the line is mostly set with better handicappers able to model pace and adjust the factors specfic to each matchup. nice work using player level data.

Cards +114

Yeah, mostly 4 factors with a couple more in there. I think calculating pace is pretty easy...I think what probably takes a lot of work is using the most predictive data and then quantifying matchup specific stuff.

Thanks though. Just an amateur dipping my toes in.

Yes matchup specific vs the opposing team but also the intrateam baseline stats can depend a lot upon the interaction among the guys on the same team. It's a very fluid game. There's some decent on/off court WOWY type analysis out there but then it suffers from sample size and recency issues. Or maybe the machine learners have it all figured out already.

live feed of the syndicate at work

b00t got fatter I see.

F.Van Vleet rebounds+assists over 4½ -115 vs F.Van Vleet rebounds+assists under 4½
F.Van Vleet rebounds+assists over 4½ -120 vs F.Van Vleet rebounds+assists under 4½
F.Van Vleet rebounds+assists over 5 +150 vs F.Van Vleet rebounds+assists under 5
F.Van Vleet rebounds+assists over 5 +135 vs F.Van Vleet rebounds+assists under 5
F.Van Vleet rebounds+assists over 5 +115 vs F.Van Vleet rebounds+assists under 5
F.Van Vleet rebounds+assists over 5 +100 vs F.Van Vleet rebounds+assists under 5
F.Van Vleet rebounds+assists over 5½ +165 vs F.Van Vleet rebounds+assists under 5½
F.Van Vleet rebounds+assists over 5½ +155 vs F.Van Vleet rebounds+assists under 5½
F.Van Vleet rebounds+assists over 5½ +140 vs F.Van Vleet rebounds+assists under 5½
F.Van Vleet rebounds+assists over 5½ +130 vs F.Van Vleet rebounds+assists under 5½
F.Van Vleet rebounds+assists over 5½ +135 vs F.Van Vleet rebounds+assists under 5½
F.Van Vleet rebounds+assists over 5½ +125 vs F.Van Vleet rebounds+assists under 5½
F.Van Vleet rebounds+assists over 5½ +100 vs F.Van Vleet rebounds+assists under 5½

Each for $250

Ban incoming?

Sorry I thought I posted MLB lines earlier but apparently I didn't hit submit. Whoops. We need Margevicius to hit u3.5 to have a small win (~4%), so didn't miss much. But 2-0 on evens if TEX/BAL hold (dramatic 9th in BOS/TBA for the other win). That's a huge disappointment missing out on that.

only lost lowry o11.5 a+r even with danny green getting tons of extra minutes because VanVleet got busted open and lost a tooth

easy game guys. here's hoping the warriors can win a game so this doesn't end on Monday or whenever the next game is

Another good win today. Hoping for a miracle stat correction on draymond o9.5 rebounds.

Anyone remember that shot clock violation near end of 3rd q? They initially gave him a rebound but took it away. When I slow-Moed it, it looked like the ball was in his hands when the clock expired.

Cmon NBA do your fans right! All those poor people who bet draymond to get a triple double

Wow.

Cousins should’ve taken a multi year contract when he had the chance.