first crack at NBA projections. my "model" is just using advanced stats from the '18-'19 season with some playoff multipliers for eFG%, FTr, and pace. also using Rotogrinders minutes projections.
it's probably bad - I have TOR -1 in this game somehow. FiveThirtyEight has GSW -1 and Vegas has GSW -4.5. FiveThirtyEight uses a "playoff experience multiplier" for their team ratings that I didn't use, but it barely moves the needle for this matchup anyway.
I don't have time right now to figure out % chance of going over or under for props (I think I need to find standard deviations and then use the log normal distribution?), so sorry about that.
any feedback is appreciated, boys
potential problems that come to mind:
-using some Raptors source stats from the pre-Gasol team
-not accounting for broken DeMarcus Cousins