Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting - Page 49 - Sports Betting

Whoops that Schenn is o2 not 2.5

Copy into some program like notepad, save with .csv extension, open in excel.

I think they used decimal odds but just display USA so it causes some rounding errors. I remember when K had 100 limit the max bet was like 113.36 to win 100 on a -114 line

Quote

06-03-2019 , 11:40 AM

#1202

bettertimes

newbie

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 29

You can also copy paste the Raw/Paste data from the PasteBin link into Excel and Data -> Text to Columns -> Delimited -> Comma -> OK

Also, I'll probably regret this and figure it'd be polite to ask but is it OK if I post a link to a total K file (would be more or less the exact same format as DNRS in PasteBin)? I’m by no means an expert in modeling or sports betting (probably a life time break-even to slight loser) but I’ve gotten a lot of entertainment/learned a lot from following this thread and if nothing more would be fun to see how far off I am from someone who actually knows what they’re doing.

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06-03-2019 , 12:29 PM

#1203

Fubster

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 8,949

It's crowdsourced, all are welcome to contribute

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06-03-2019 , 01:23 PM

#1204

nuggetz87

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 15,728

Quote:

Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley

And Klay averaging 3.3 rebounds and somehow getting 4 in the first couple minutes too.

he's at 4.0 per game in playoffs and 3.8 per game reg season according to basketball reference.

did you mean your model has him averaging 3.3 in this game?

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06-03-2019 , 02:10 PM

#1205

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

Whoops typo. I had him at 3.9 projected so +100 made it good. Anything else bad.

Anyone can post here. Love to see competing models. No one's is perfect and we can all learn from each other. I know mine has issues (like who is even pitching today for ANA and SEA, no one knows) and we can all improve together.

Here's a K update.

https://pastebin.com/SzdvKSLE

Most people the same. Lester went down 0.2 projected and Nola and Martin up 0.1.

Here are the bets I got

Buehler u6 -115 (4x)
Ray u7 -115 (3x)
Nola o6.5 -130 (2x)
Lester u4.5 -115 (1x, moved to -140 after yuck)

Quote

06-03-2019 , 02:16 PM

#1206

bettertimes

newbie

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 29

Cool, below is the link for 6/3. I put this together last night with the assumption that Cahill was starting for LAA and LeBlanc is starting SEA but looks like Angels are going opener and Mariners who knows

https://pastebin.com/5sWqmLnX

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06-03-2019 , 02:54 PM

#1207

JBravo

newbie

Join Date: May 2019 Posts: 35

Anyone else have their books take down K props? A couple of mine seem to have removed them just today.

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06-03-2019 , 03:17 PM

#1208

Fubster

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 8,949

SC2
QzDdb +1.5 +285 vs Firefly
Misaki ML +283 vs BreakingGG

don't understand those lines at all

Quote

06-03-2019 , 03:18 PM

#1209

banned

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 1,307

Quote:

Originally Posted by JBravo

Anyone else have their books take down K props? A couple of mine seem to have removed them just today.

yup. mine did too. we did it boys!

Quote

06-03-2019 , 03:23 PM

#1210

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

I'm sure they'll come back. There's only a couple games today and we don't even know all the pitchers. I doubt this thread has any effect on the market as a whole.

We are really crushing the NHL Shots on Goals lines. OReilly even dropped from u2.5 to u2 lol

Quote

06-03-2019 , 03:37 PM

#1211

JBravo

newbie

Join Date: May 2019 Posts: 35

Quote:

Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley

I'm sure they'll come back. There's only a couple games today and we don't even know all the pitchers. I doubt this thread has any effect on the market as a whole.

This brings up an interesting thought: what % of the K bet market share do you think this thread holds? Am I being naive in thinking its anywhere near a whole percent?

Quote

06-03-2019 , 03:39 PM

#1212

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

I'm only getting town 10-15k/day on K's

I'm guessing the experts on Reddit, Gambling twitter, and DFS Analytic Touts are betting tens of millions a day easily into the market. That is where the real killers are.

Today is a day to worry because the ACTION NETWORK has Ray and Buehler over as 10 star quality bets. We are on the opposite side (and somehow the market is moving in our direction, but they're setting it up for when they drop the bomb). Might as well call up bookmaker and see if we can get out of the bets somehow.

Quote

06-03-2019 , 03:56 PM

#1213

ShaoPossu

stranger

Join Date: May 2019 Posts: 4

My bets today:

Martin O4.5 @ +108 (biggest)
Lester U4.5 @ -105
Nola O6.5 @ -110
Buehler U5.5 @ +142
Ray U6.5 @ +124

1st5 Dodgers/Dbacks Over 4.5 @ +113

NHL. Schenn O2.5 SoG @ +130

Last edited by ShaoPossu; 06-03-2019 at 04:03 PM.

Quote

06-03-2019 , 04:03 PM

#1214

JBravo

newbie

Join Date: May 2019 Posts: 35

Quote:

Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley

Today is a day to worry because the ACTION NETWORK has Ray and Buehler over as 10 star quality bets. We are on the opposite side (and somehow the market is moving in our direction, but they're setting it up for when they drop the bomb). Might as well call up bookmaker and see if we can get out of the bets somehow.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShaoPossu

Buehler U5.5 @ +142

Gulp. Got this in at u6.5 myself. Nice line on Corbin though.

Quote

06-03-2019 , 06:35 PM

#1215

atrainpsu

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 1,840

Quote:

Originally Posted by bettertimes

I accidentally followed you for a small hedge on buehler o6+127. So good luck. Hopefully we all have u6.5 and he gets 6.

Quote

06-03-2019 , 06:47 PM

#1216

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

Krejci u2 -> now 1.5
OReilly u2.5 -> now 2
Schenn o2 -> now 2.5
Marchand u3 -> now 2.5

Poogs did we do good? Isn't 1/2 a Shot on goal a lot especially with such small numbers?

Quote

06-03-2019 , 07:25 PM

#1217

heehaww

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 5,081

I'm just glad people can't crowdsource a poker player out of business like y'all are doing to Poogsy. Guy is earning an honest living betting props and y'all are pulling it right out from under him, putting him into unemployment. Savage! How's a man supposed to get hired into the corporate droneforce when his only recent work history is "professional gambler"?

Quote

06-03-2019 , 08:02 PM

#1218

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

Turn a negative into a positive. Learn some new markets. Stay on the grind.

Once we get something good going we get comfortable and just assume that these opportunities will be there forever.

Everyone will be a better person after we kill all the props.

Quote

06-03-2019 , 09:09 PM

#1219

NajdorfDefense

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Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 17,563

Reminds me of the convert arb market heading into 2008, everybody was fat and happy earning above market returns with little risk due to the natural hedging of the strategy and just profiting on the volatility and then poof, down 60% and out of business in 2-3 months. People with 15 yr track records busto overnight.

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06-03-2019 , 10:15 PM

#1220

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

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Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

looks like ACTION NETWORK was super sharp today on the overs

We gonna need some luck

Quote

06-03-2019 , 11:18 PM

#1221

NicholasJ

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 2,761

Wow what a fish. I misclicked Ray over AND Buehler over in my first ever shot at following your bets.

Quote

06-03-2019 , 11:21 PM

#1222

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

cursed the syndicate

it's okay we were due for a bad day, at least it occurred when there were only a couple games

going 0 for with 16 games would be horrible

nola needs save us from -100% ROI

NHL went decent. Won 3 of the big bets, lost 1, then lost 2 small won 1 but that 9.67% roi on a smaller limit isnt gonna put a dent into that mlb loss

Quote

06-04-2019 , 01:13 AM

#1223

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,294

Quote:

Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley

If this post doesn't inspire you then you are absolutely in the wrong business.

It got me fired up to head into the lab and build a K model. I know, I know, everyone has a K model these days. It's not exactly a new market but it's new to me. It's something I am embarrassed to say I was lazy about and you know what, it's coming along nicely. I am testing posting my overnights beating rsigley to the post because competition makes us all better. Notice formatting is already improved.

6/4/19 K
https://pastebin.com/QVpUn9HG

Notational convention is always the odds of going over the number

Quote

06-04-2019 , 04:41 AM

#1224

BOLplayer

banned

Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 168

Wednesday, Jun 05 4:30am CST GSL Ro.8
twitch.tv/gsl

soO +153 over Classic

I love Classic (affectionately known as "Chintoss" because of his massive ****ing chin) but Quarterfinals soO means Finals soO. This one is certainly very close and I'd maybe even say Classic is a slight favorite. aligulac.com lists it as an even matchup with Classic as 54.19% favorite.

I'm going to have a sleep and think on Innovation vs Trap and see what the lines do but Innovation -143 over Trap seems pretty good.