no meditating is the key to success. I do it every morning for 20 minutes along with yoga 3x/week

Happens to the best of us

Got out of the Westgate about an hour ago with one of my best days in a couple months

Hit the pick 5 at Pesque Isle Downs for 14k
Hit the Super High 5 for only $7 invested to pay $5,500 at The Meadows (it might have been the entire pool for just my ticket)
Several superfectas in the 1k-2k range
Won every ML (5 bets, unless ARI somehow loses), Total (4), HRE Bet (5) and even 2/2 in RSIF thanks to The Chart (TM)
Went 3-1 against "Like" in H2H K's

I won't lie I did a little fist pump when I won the pick 5. 14k isn't life or bankroll changing (one ML win is usually in this range) and I've hit a bunch of those and pick 6's this year, but they mostly just covered the previous amounts bet on that type of bet. Just collecting rakeback essentially. Thousand here, thousand there. Classic $70 pick 6 payout, missing the 1.35 million payout in the Derby even though I had the Derby winner in there (Didn't have the 7 in the 10th), etc. So the fist pump was kind of like yea, we did it after months of nothing and getting close.

Go to the parking lot to hit up the sensory deprivation tank place and some thai food for my one meal of the day before I go home and my bumper is missing. Someone hit my Tesla (flexing) and just drove away and took it with them (was it a Dodge Ram?). The money isn't the issue, but now it will take several hours of my life to deal with and hassle of dealing with insurance, repair shop, wondering if there is any other structural damage beside just the bumper, wondering if I should just buy a new car and waste hours in a dealership where they try to treat you like an idiot to upsell you?

The world works in mysterious ways. Maybe I wasn't humble enough today with my fist pump and this is how I get put in my place by the universe. Tomorrows goal is to be more humble. Thank you for coming to my TED talk.

Two losses only by 1/2 K, close ones!

Loaisiga u6 -115 (Scratched)
Hess o3.5 +105 (PPD)

Skaggs o4.5 -105 WIN +1
Peacock u6 -115 WIN +1
Aaron Nola u7-115 WIN +1
Ray u7.5 -115 WIN +1
Kingham u4 -115 WIN +1
Bieber u7 -115 WIN +1
R. Lopez u5.5 -115 LOSS -1.15
Fiers o4.5 -115 LOSS -1.15 (should have probably laid off him coming off a 131 pitch game before but still only lost by 1/2)
Kikuchi o5 -115 PUSH (thought we were getting the comes into an inning, strikes out one batter, then gets pulled but instead he gave up a HR. 100% a K though if we had the under)

Yesterday: 6-2-1 +3.7u
Total: 194-172-37 +10.98u

Whoops missed morning lines dealing with bumper. Very sad because some of these lines are bad and a lot of bets if we got them at opening we would have crushed, but now they've moved too much.

Here's what's left IMO

Eickhoff o5.5 +104 (Proj: 6)
L Weaver u5.5 +101 (Proj: 5.2)
Paddack o5.5 -120 (Proj: 6.5)
B. Anderson o3.5 -110 (Proj: 4.4)
Sale u9 +110 (Proj: 8.8)
Hendricks o4.5 -125 (Proj: 5)

I'm starting to think this wasn't an accident but was a message from a different syndicate that we better watch out because they know who we are.

cool ill throw a couple hundo on these today

Small loss day. Frustrating as all the lines that were crushed before I got to them (Woodruff u7, Leake o3.5, Hellickson u4, Freeland o4) won. Gotta hit them bright and early tomorrow

Eickhoff o5.5 +104 (Proj: 6) LOSS -1
L Weaver u5.5 +101 (Proj: 5.2) WIN +1.01
Paddack o5.5 -120 (Proj: 6.5) LOSS -1.2
B. Anderson o3.5 -110 (Proj: 4.4) WIN +1
Sale u9 +110 (Proj: 8.8) LOSS -1 (only 17K's, so close)
Hendricks o4.5 -125 (Proj: 5) WIN +1

Yesterday: 3-3 -0.19u
Total: 197-175-37 +10.79u

Spent the last hour running simulations for the hundreds of PGA matchups and only found a couple bets which is odd because historically majors have tons of value due to obscure matchups. Hoping BM will post better ones when the spreads are up. These are around Vegas, but also Pinnacle/5d/other books that copy Pinnacle

Thomas Detry -½+124 over Ross Fisher Risk: 0.44u LOSS -0.44
Richie Ramsay -½+107 over Matthew Jordan Risk: 0.15u LOSS -0.15
Yesterday: 0-2 -0.59u on 0.59u risked (-100% ROI)
Total: 22-26 -0.0933u on 39.68u wagered (-0.24% ROI)

Bethpage R1:

Steve Stricker -½ +100 over Harman Risk: 0.4u
Dylan Frittelli -½ +100 vs Kurt Kitayama Risk: 1.17u
Andrew Putnam +½ +114 vs Byeong Hun An Risk: 0.24u
Joost Luiten +½ -120 vs Matt Wallace Risk: 0.58u
Aaron Wise -½ -112 vs Ryan Fox Risk: 0.71u
Charley Hoffman +½ -108 vs Patrick Reed Risk: 0.43u

Chris Archer o5.5 +133 (Proj: 5.9)
Zack Greinke u6 -115 (P: 5.4)

Yu Darvish u6 -115 (5.9)

jesus christ you have to be fast at these things

took soto u3 -115 literally within a minute of it posting and before i could hit submit on the 2p2 internet forums crowdsource syndicate thread to share with my family it's -227

we need a plan of action boys

now -250

I have fair at -398 if you want to tempt it, but I wouldn't bother at -250

Cahill o4 +105

Wilmer Font o3.5 -115 (4.3)
Corbin u7.5 -115 (7.1)
wAcha Flocka Flame o4 +100 (5.1)
Soroka o5 -115 (5.2)

Odorizzi u4.5 +118 (4.5)

lol hit j lopez u5 -115

-165 in seconds then the line moved to 4.5

this thing is too hard to share. i feel like i'm on the stock exchange.

how can we deal with this

i miss the days of BB where they'd hang a horrible line and just leave it there for hours

there's only couple games left I have these projections
Strahm 5.5
Maeda 6.7
S. Anderson 4.6
Hess 3.9
Happ 5.6

Good luck getting them before me and others.

Well, my book has an API so in theory you could write a program so that when you hit a play, it automatically hits it at my book also before the line moves.

one way to deal with would be to stop posting them online for free? please?

When did you bet it? BM seems to be doing gradual limit increases, and if you're max 250 on the phone at 7am then they're going to crank the wheel as hard as they can. A couple hours before game time they increase to 500 and move less to action. Gotta let them marinate for a while after they're posted.

I've been betting within a minute of them being posted. If I don't bet it someone else will.

They posted Hess 3.5 and Happ at 6.5. Did Hess o3.5 first, got it, then line crushed. As I'm trying to do Happ u6.5 line moved 4 times then to 6.

Still took u6, but there's a lot of syndicates attacking these.

How can Joe Casual get involved when he needs to sit there and as soon as that square that says +9 turns red indicating new props was added he needs to click the button, then do quick math to determine if its a good bet or not

Tragedy of the commons I guess. I just wish people would calm down and give them an hour so PPH can copy.

The billionaire betting $200 prop openers

If you don't bet it someone else will. No way for all the syndicates to negotiate peace with each other. The openers range from $250-500. Never seen them at $200. I have a ROI of 10.15% on K's this season and average 14 unique bets/day. $250 * 10.15% * 14 = $355.25 in EV/day. Not bad for 30 minutes of work when there's nothing else to do. And that doesn't include multiple bets of which most are.

Some new lines at BM for Bethpage R1:

Zach Johnson -½+126 over Sung Kang Risk: 0.36u
Si Woo Kim -½+125 over Corey Conners Risk: 0.67u
Lee Westwood -½+121 over Harold Varner Risk: 0.35u
Ross Fisher -½+126 over Brian Harman Risk: 0.59u
CT Pan -½+100 over Adrian Otaegui Risk: 0.38u
Tom Lewis -½+121 over Burgoon Risk: 0.37u
Padraig Harrington -½+120 over Janewattananond Risk: 0.73u
Martin Trainer -½+126 over Shaun Norris Risk: 1.23u
Satoshi Kodaira -½+115 over Michael Kim Risk: 0.5u


Shaun Norris is a professional golfer, but he's not that good. He mostly plays on the Asian Tour in Japan and the Sunshine Tour in South Africa. Trainer is new to the PGA tour (qualified from WEB.com last year) and he's had decent results. Shouldn't a PGA tour pro be substantial favorite over someone who plays for 200k purses? The math says yes, but are we being set up by bookmaker?

Here is a possible solution

Instead of hoping the line isn't gone when I post it, here's all the probabilities for tomorrow for every option of lines for under.

We can all fight for them as they are posted

https://pastebin.com/HsBb7hMp

Remember about a month ago when it was Reynaldo Lopez I think who had 2 strikes on someone and he got pulled with an injury half a K short of a win? The opposite happened today when Greinke was pulled with 5 K's due to an injury and 2 strikes. Everything balances out in the end. Even the really random events.

seriously though...why do you keep posting these?

Fulfill TomG's mission to bring peace to the world. Even though he's dead and gone, we must keep his legacy intact.

The big golf bet looking good. Norris turning in a +4 on the front 9 which is easier than the Back 9 whereas Trainer started at the Back 9 and is looking at +2 thru 7.

For BM, The Pastebin (TM) shows value in Bassitt o5.5 and Turnbull u5 at current prices. Very small on Lynn at that +110.

Whoops then Trainer bogeys and double bogeys on the "Easier" front 9. Game over friends. Sunshine Tour > PGA