Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerHero77
I like Thomas also but Cink +304 seems too good to pass up.
How much of your model considers shortened holes, like #13 and #17 yesterday? I imagine that would help guys like Cink who like tight short courses.
Also, did the wind shift on Saturday play into your model at all?
My only golf models use implied hole scoring distributions for each player, based on difficulty, their expected 18 hole scores, and market odds. Slight adjustments for AM/PM flights. Pretty rough but on a macro scale they seem to do ok.
i used to break down on a hole by whole basis in years past and it was a huge mess with a lot more work and just terrible results - i'm sure long term that's the optimal approach but until i can figure out to do it, i will stick to continuing this macro perspective
and yes, i too agree that cink at +304 should be huge value, not purely just because he has it in him to outgolf thomas periodically but he can have a terrible day and still win because the top guys are all capable of blowups
one thing i want to really look over is the risk of implosion, i used to factor this in with 3put and double bogey or worse frequencies to manually adjust standard deviation for each player - but inevitably this just skewered the pool where you'd have such an absurd gap between the elite guys and the rest and it gave the bottom guys way too much win equity because the bigger standard deviation meant when they hit the top of their range in simulations they were really dominating so i need to figure out how to quantify someone's risk of having a terrible round and include this without totally corrupting resutls - perhaps looking over historical results of h2h matches where line is -300 or greater is a good start to see how often those bets are profitable vs say a -200 favorite
as for weather, i've read a bunch of papers regarding impact of wind at various speeds on golf balls
i had
thurs am 7 mph avg wind
thurs pm 17 mph avg wind
fri am 25 mph avg wind
fri pm 17 mph avg wind
legit don't even remember the process/forumulas that led me to from those winds to an 18.9% advantage to the AM/PM group over the PM/AM group (really need to take more notes explaining process, referencing the papers i'm sourcing info from etc etc because this is what always happens with my models, over time it's there, i'm not sure how it got there or why it's set up the way it is but at the time i built it, it must have made sense)
but the key is if i take that 18.9% advantage and apply it holistically then you get absurd results, but if you instead apply it only as a modifier like you would with course history or cut making history then it factors in but not enough where you can blindly take the am/pm side in a whole tourney h2h
here's my baseline expected score for everyone, this is what i use in rounds 3 & 4 since any h2hs will be in same tee group so no need to adjust (some of these guys are in the zero sample group (they are just given 100 as placeholders and some others are in the low sample where i have enough data to have a projection but still don't feel good about it)
Rank PLAYER Score
1 Jon Rahm 69.55
2 Scottie Scheffler 69.77
3 Justin Thomas 69.81
4 Rory McIlroy 69.93
5 Patrick Cantlay 69.95
6 Collin Morikawa 70.27
7 Viktor Hovland 70.29
8 Xander Schauffele 70.39
9 Hideki Matsuyama 70.48
10 Cameron Smith 70.52
11 Shane Lowry 70.57
12 Dustin Johnson 70.67
13 Matthew Fitzpatrick 70.71
14 Will Zalatoris 70.77
15 Jordan Spieth 70.77
16 Sergio Garcia 70.87
17 Daniel Berger 70.89
18 Joaquin Niemann 70.91
19 Sam Burns 70.93
20 Keegan Bradley 70.93
21 Corey Conners 70.93
22 Tyrrell Hatton 70.99
23 Brooks Koepka 71.01
24 Tony Finau 71.06
25 Adam Scott 71.06
26 Cameron Young 71.07
27 Russell Henley 71.07
28 Billy Horschel 71.13
29 Tiger Woods 71.17
30 Louis Oosthuizen 71.20
31 Harold Varner III 71.22
32 Tommy Fleetwood 71.25
33 Alex Noren 71.30
34 Matt Kuchar 71.31
35 Sebastian Munoz 71.35
36 Jason Day 71.36
37 Bubba Watson 71.37
38 Gary Woodland 71.43
39 Jason Kokrak 71.46
40 Talor Gooch 71.46
41 Brian Harman 71.47
42 Aaron Wise 71.48
43 Jhonattan Vegas 71.48
44 Seamus Power 71.49
45 Chris Kirk 71.49
46 Max Homa 71.51
47 Maverick McNealy 71.52
48 Abraham Ancer 71.54
49 Justin Rose 71.54
50 Webb Simpson 71.56
51 Si Woo Kim 71.60
52 Kevin Na 71.61
53 Mito Pereira 71.62
54 Kevin Kisner 71.67
55 Patrick Reed 71.67
56 Marc Leishman 71.67
57 Tom Hoge 71.67
58 Adam Hadwin 71.68
59 Ian Poulter 71.68
60 Joohyung Kim 71.68
61 Thomas Pieters 71.70
62 Sepp Straka 71.72
63 Cameron Tringale 71.72
64 Erik van Rooyen 71.73
65 Bernd Wiesberger 71.74
66 Matt Jones 71.80
67 Ryan Palmer 71.86
68 Kevin Streelman 71.86
69 Rickie Fowler 71.87
70 Sam Horsfield 71.88
71 Russell Knox 71.89
72 Anirban Lahiri 71.89
73 Keith Mitchell 71.91
74 Luke List 71.92
75 Robert MacIntyre 71.93
76 Kyoung-Hoon Lee 71.94
77 Lucas Glover 71.94
78 Troy Merritt 71.96
79 J.J. Spaun 71.96
80 Lanto Griffin 71.97
81 Joel Dahmen 71.97
82 Patton Kizzire 71.97
83 Brendan Steele 71.98
84 Ryan Fox 72.00
85 Rikuya Hoshino 72.01
86 Henrik Stenson 72.01
87 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 72.03
88 Denny McCarthy 72.03
89 Dean Burmester 72.04
90 Zach Johnson 72.04
91 Francesco Molinari 72.05
92 Scott Stallings 72.06
93 Sadom Kaewkanjana 72.06
94 Pablo Larrazabal 72.06
95 Davis Riley 72.07
96 Cameron Davis 72.08
97 Lee Westwood 72.09
98 Branden Grace 72.10
99 Cameron Champ 72.12
100 Charl Schwartzel 72.15
101 Mackenzie Hughes 72.15
102 Padraig Harrington 72.18
103 Oliver Bekker 72.18
104 Stewart Cink 72.18
105 Takumi Kanaya 72.18
106 Adri Arnaus 72.20
107 Lucas Herbert 72.23
108 Martin Kaymer 72.27
109 Chad Ramey 72.30
110 Justin Harding 72.34
111 Richard Bland 72.35
112 Carlos Ortiz 72.36
113 Laurie Canter 72.42
114 Paul Dickinson 72.43
115 Wyatt Worthington II 72.43
116 Casey Pyne 72.44
117 Sean McCarty 72.45
118 Beau Hossler 72.48
119 Shawn Warren 72.49
120 Kramer Hickok 72.52
121 Min Woo Lee 72.52
122 Jesse Mueller 72.54
123 Kyle Mendoza 72.56
124 Ryan Vermeer 72.57
125 Adam Schenk 72.59
126 Hudson Swafford 72.60
127 Bio Kim 72.62
128 Daniel Van Tonder 72.64
129 Tyler Collet 72.66
130 Harry Higgs 72.67
131 Yuki Inamori 72.68
132 Matt Borchert 72.70
133 Matthew Wolff 72.72
134 Nicolai Hojgaard 72.72
135 Alex Beach 72.75
136 Chan Kim 72.77
137 Ryosuke Kinoshita 72.80
138 Michael Block 72.89
139 Shaun Micheel 72.95
140 Garrick Higgo 72.97
141 Rich Beem 72.97
142 Jinichiro Kozuma 72.99
143 Shaun Norris 73.00
144 Jason Dufner 73.08
145 Ryan Brehm 73.29
146 Alex Cejka 73.45
147 Y.E. Yang 74.49
148 John Daly 75.03
149 Tim Feenstra 100.00
150 Brandon Bingaman 100.00
151 Austin Hurt 100.00
152 Colin Inglis 100.00
153 Nic Ishee 100.00
154 Dylan Newman 100.00
155 Zac Oakley 100.00
here it is for thurs/fri weather, you'll see there's some changes but not overly significant, it's also not precise, i found it easier logistically to improve scores on the good side rather than punish scores on the bad side, afterall we're not really seeking what their actual score would be but would rather have a baseline to compare one golfer to another
so you can see rory gained half a stroke based on weather and went from 4th to 1st based on his tee time
Rank PLAYER Score
1 Rory McIlroy 69.46
2 Jon Rahm 69.55
3 Scottie Scheffler 69.77
4 Justin Thomas 69.81
5 Viktor Hovland 69.90
6 Patrick Cantlay 69.95
7 Xander Schauffele 70.02
8 Hideki Matsuyama 70.12
9 Cameron Smith 70.17
10 Collin Morikawa 70.27
11 Will Zalatoris 70.46
12 Jordan Spieth 70.47
13 Shane Lowry 70.57
14 Sam Burns 70.65
15 Dustin Johnson 70.67
16 Matthew Fitzpatrick 70.71
17 Tyrrell Hatton 70.73
18 Tony Finau 70.81
19 Cameron Young 70.83
20 Sergio Garcia 70.87
21 Daniel Berger 70.89
22 Joaquin Niemann 70.91
23 Keegan Bradley 70.93
24 Corey Conners 70.93
25 Tiger Woods 70.95
26 Brooks Koepka 71.01
27 Adam Scott 71.06
28 Russell Henley 71.07
29 Alex Noren 71.09
30 Matt Kuchar 71.11
31 Billy Horschel 71.13
32 Sebastian Munoz 71.16
33 Bubba Watson 71.18
34 Louis Oosthuizen 71.20
35 Harold Varner III 71.22
36 Gary Woodland 71.25
37 Tommy Fleetwood 71.25
38 Brian Harman 71.30
39 Chris Kirk 71.33
40 Max Homa 71.35
41 Jason Day 71.36
42 Abraham Ancer 71.38
43 Justin Rose 71.38
44 Si Woo Kim 71.46
45 Jason Kokrak 71.46
46 Talor Gooch 71.46
47 Kevin Na 71.47
48 Mito Pereira 71.47
49 Aaron Wise 71.48
50 Jhonattan Vegas 71.48
51 Seamus Power 71.49
52 Maverick McNealy 71.52
53 Patrick Reed 71.54
54 Tom Hoge 71.54
55 Webb Simpson 71.56
56 Thomas Pieters 71.58
57 Kevin Kisner 71.67
58 Marc Leishman 71.67
59 Adam Hadwin 71.68
60 Ian Poulter 71.68
61 Joohyung Kim 71.68
62 Matt Jones 71.69
63 Sepp Straka 71.72
64 Cameron Tringale 71.72
65 Erik van Rooyen 71.73
66 Bernd Wiesberger 71.74
67 Ryan Palmer 71.76
68 Kevin Streelman 71.76
69 Sam Horsfield 71.78
70 Robert MacIntyre 71.85
71 Lucas Glover 71.85
72 Rickie Fowler 71.87
73 Troy Merritt 71.88
74 Russell Knox 71.89
75 Lanto Griffin 71.89
76 Anirban Lahiri 71.89
77 Brendan Steele 71.91
78 Keith Mitchell 71.91
79 Luke List 71.92
80 Ryan Fox 71.93
81 Kyoung-Hoon Lee 71.94
82 Rikuya Hoshino 71.94
83 J.J. Spaun 71.96
84 Denny McCarthy 71.97
85 Joel Dahmen 71.97
86 Patton Kizzire 71.97
87 Dean Burmester 71.97
88 Francesco Molinari 71.99
89 Sadom Kaewkanjana 72.00
90 Pablo Larrazabal 72.00
91 Henrik Stenson 72.01
92 Davis Riley 72.01
93 Cameron Davis 72.03
94 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 72.03
95 Lee Westwood 72.04
96 Zach Johnson 72.04
97 Scott Stallings 72.06
98 Branden Grace 72.10
99 Mackenzie Hughes 72.11
100 Cameron Champ 72.12
101 Padraig Harrington 72.14
102 Oliver Bekker 72.14
103 Stewart Cink 72.14
104 Takumi Kanaya 72.14
105 Charl Schwartzel 72.15
106 Adri Arnaus 72.17
107 Lucas Herbert 72.23
108 Martin Kaymer 72.27
109 Chad Ramey 72.30
110 Justin Harding 72.34
111 Richard Bland 72.35
112 Carlos Ortiz 72.36
113 Paul Dickinson 72.43
114 Laurie Canter 72.43
115 Wyatt Worthington II 72.43
116 Casey Pyne 72.45
117 Sean McCarty 72.45
118 Beau Hossler 72.50
119 Shawn Warren 72.51
120 Min Woo Lee 72.52
121 Jesse Mueller 72.54
122 Kramer Hickok 72.54
123 Kyle Mendoza 72.59
124 Adam Schenk 72.59
125 Hudson Swafford 72.60
126 Ryan Vermeer 72.61
127 Tyler Collet 72.66
128 Bio Kim 72.66
129 Harry Higgs 72.67
130 Daniel Van Tonder 72.69
131 Matthew Wolff 72.72
132 Nicolai Hojgaard 72.72
133 Yuki Inamori 72.74
134 Alex Beach 72.75
135 Matt Borchert 72.76
136 Chan Kim 72.77
137 Ryosuke Kinoshita 72.80
138 Rich Beem 72.97
139 Michael Block 72.99
140 Shaun Micheel 73.05
141 Garrick Higgo 73.08
142 Jinichiro Kozuma 73.10
143 Shaun Norris 73.12
144 Jason Dufner 73.21
145 Ryan Brehm 73.29
146 Alex Cejka 73.45
147 Y.E. Yang 74.88
148 John Daly 75.53
149 Tim Feenstra 100.00
150 Brandon Bingaman 100.00
151 Austin Hurt 100.00
152 Colin Inglis 100.00
153 Nic Ishee 100.00
154 Dylan Newman 100.00
155 Zac Oakley 100.00
