Early games.

Runs
BOS J.D. Martinez o0.5 +130
MIN Max Kepler u0.5 -205
HOU Niko Goodrum u0.5 -265
TOR Bradley Zimmer u0.5 -220
MIA Jon Berti u0.5 -130
MIA Jorge Soler u0.5 -130

RBIs
HOU Niko Goodrum u0.5 -320
SEA Ty France o0.5 +290
MIA Jorge Soler u0.5 -160

Runs
LAA Shohei Ohtani u0.5 -110
NYY Miguel Andujar o0.5 +165
CHC Seiya Suzuki o0.5 +195
CHC Patrick Wisdom u0.5 -275
ARI Jordan Luplow u0.5 -145
ARI Christian Walker u0.5 -135
STL Tommy Edman u0.5 +110
STL Harrison Bader u0.5 +100
STL Tyler O'Neill u0.5 -105
ATL Adam Duvall u0..5 -125
ATL Dansby Swanson u0.5 -145
TEX Marcus Semien u0.5 +120
TEX Adolis Garcia u0.5 +105
TEX Mitch Garver u0.5 -120
TEX Eli White u0.5 -180

RBIs
ARI Christian Walker u0.5 -190
TEX Corey Seager u0.5 -155

work prevented doing today's matchups and will post total results later today

Runs
CIN Joey Votto u0.5 - 110
WAS Cesar Hernandez u0.5 -145
WAS Lucius Fox u0.5 -270
OAK Sheldon Neuse u0.5 -155
OAK Seth Brown u0.5 -185

RBIs
CIN Joey Votto u0.5 -150

I don't think I've ever had a MLB season where I haven't had a sit-down conversation to remind myself MLB is a long season. Let's not go broke in the first month or two. It happens every year. With that in mind, we also have to plan for a few days each season where we get blown out. It's the nature of betting a daily sport over a six month stretch. Those 1 or 2 percentile days where everything seems to go wrong are going to happen a couple of times. It's just unfortunate it happens when we're already reeling. That's how knockout blows happen. I'm not against changing things up or retiring. It's the sad reality of gambling that very few ever quit on top. I say all these things so we're clear-eyed about our situation and aren't reacting emotionally.

Runs
Daily: 11-15-0, -12.11u, 36.35 units risked
YTD: 126-144-0, -40.91u, 353.4u risked, -11.6% ROI

RBIs
Daily: 2-4-0, -5.7u, 10.75 units risked
YTD: 67-108-0, -9.15u, 207.95u risked, -4.4% ROI

Total
Daily: 13-19-0, -17.81u, 47.1 units risked
YTD: 193-252-0, -50.06u, 561.35u risked, -8.9% ROI

mexico results

whole tourney 17-12-1 +4.55u
r1 2-6 -4.43u
r2 6-6-3 -0.03u
r3 7-7-2 +1.19u
r4 n/a

mexico totals 32-31-6 +1.28u

2022 total 318-216-39 +31.22u +3.84% ROI


Mexican Weird Stuff
whole tourney 0-1 -1.22u
r1 n/a
r2 7-10 -1.93u
r3 2-6-1 -3.69u
r4 n/a

total tourney: 9-17-1 -6.84u

2022 weird: 16-42-2 -24.52u -33.45%

I think it's time to give TheBat or TheBatX as it is now called a try. I've always felt that sports betting markets are the best test of the accuracy of a projection system. As the saying goes, "ROI Don't Lie." I've reached out to the creator of TheBatX system, Derek Carty, and asked if he'd be willing to sponsor my TheBatX membership in return for the publicity of testing out his projections here. Stay tuned.

no weird stuff this week! excite!

R1

Golfer Fair Line
Ryan Armour 145
Brian Harman -145
0
Doug Ghim -108
Brendan Steele 108
0
John Huh 121
Doug Ghim -121
0
Tony Finau -128
Sepp Straka 128
0
Tyrrell Hatton -109
Tony Finau 109
0
Dylan Frittelli 102
Branden Grace -102
0
Nick Taylor 110
Dylan Frittelli -110
0
Webb Simpson -136
Francesco Molinari 136
0
Corey Conners -109
Abraham Ancer 109
0
Marc Leishman 127
Corey Conners -127
0
Matt Jones -116
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 116
0
Seamus Power -125
Matt Jones 125
0
Lanto Griffin -103
J.T. Poston 103
0
Zach Johnson 102
Lucas Glover -102
0
Mark Hubbard -125
Brice Garnett 125
0
Denny McCarthy -103
Aaron Rai 103
0
Peter Malnati 130
Kevin Streelman -130
0
Luke List 141
Gary Woodland -141
0
Sergio Garcia -164
Luke List 164
0
Michael Thompson 138
Keith Mitchell -138
0
Max Homa 112
Jason Day -112
0
Rickie Fowler 110
Max Homa -110
0
Nate Lashley 116
Adam Long -116
0
Patrick Reed -114
Joel Dahmen 114
0
Paul Casey -120
Patrick Reed 120
0
Tyler Duncan 171
Matt Kuchar -171
0
Jhonattan Vegas -160
Harry Higgs 160
0
Russell Knox 140
Russell Henley -140
0
Mackenzie Hughes 137
Cameron Young -137


Whole Tourney

Golfer Fair Line
Anirban Lahiri 127
Troy Merritt -127
0
Matt Jones 109
Troy Merritt -109
0
Sergio Garcia -188
Troy Merritt 188
0
Brian Harman -163
Adam Long 163
0
Brian Harman -105
Si Woo Kim 105
0
Kevin Streelman 130
Brian Harman -130
0
Lucas Glover 145
Brian Harman -145
0
Aaron Rai 103
Doug Ghim -103
0
Anirban Lahiri 103
Aaron Rai -103
0
Anirban Lahiri 117
Joel Dahmen -117
0
Anirban Lahiri 135
Sepp Straka -135
0
Brendan Steele 129
Joel Dahmen -129
0
Doug Ghim 179
Cameron Young -179
0
Joel Dahmen -121
Doug Ghim 121
0
Kevin Streelman -128
Brendan Steele 128
0
Matthew NeSmith 117
Doug Ghim -117
0
Gary Woodland 144
Tyrrell Hatton -144
0
Marc Leishman 154
Tyrrell Hatton -154
0
Martin Laird 110
Russell Knox -110
0
Rory McIlroy -240
Tony Finau 240
0
Russell Henley 114
Tyrrell Hatton -114
0
Sepp Straka 149
Abraham Ancer -149
0
Tony Finau 111
Corey Conners -111
0
Tony Finau -122
Gary Woodland 122
0
Tyrrell Hatton -124
Abraham Ancer 124
0
Tyrrell Hatton 118
Matthew Fitzpatrick -118
0
Dylan Frittelli 107
Cameron Davis -107
0
Francesco Molinari 101
Dylan Frittelli -101
0
Francesco Molinari -105
Matthew NeSmith 105
0
Matt Jones 129
Webb Simpson -129
0
Matt Kuchar -122
Webb Simpson 122
0
Rory McIlroy -219
Corey Conners 219
0
Rory McIlroy -176
Matthew Fitzpatrick 176
0
Sergio Garcia -160
Webb Simpson 160
0
Webb Simpson -144
Alex Smalley 144
0
Webb Simpson 114
Cameron Young -114
0
Webb Simpson -102
Jhonattan Vegas 102
0
Webb Simpson -109
Si Woo Kim 109
0
C.T. Pan -150
Brandon Wu 150
0
C.T. Pan -108
Taylor Moore 108
0
Corey Conners 123
Matthew Fitzpatrick -123
0
Keegan Bradley -111
Abraham Ancer 111
0
Kevin Streelman -109
C.T. Pan 109
0
Marc Leishman 125
Abraham Ancer -125
0
Marc Leishman 104
Gary Woodland -104
0
Marc Leishman 136
Keegan Bradley -136
0
Marc Leishman 102
Patrick Reed -102
0
Matthias Schwab 128
C.T. Pan -128
0
Paul Casey -141
Marc Leishman 141
0
Russell Henley -110
Abraham Ancer 110
0
Keegan Bradley 102
Russell Henley -102
0
Lanto Griffin -119
David Lipsky 119
0
Lanto Griffin 105
Mark Hubbard -105
0
Paul Casey -103
Keegan Bradley 103
0
Seamus Power 123
Keegan Bradley -123
0
Seamus Power -132
Keith Mitchell 132
0
Seamus Power 121
Russell Henley -121
0
Gary Woodland 173
Matthew Fitzpatrick -173
0
Lucas Glover -114
Luke List 114
0
Lucas Glover -104
Russell Knox 104
0
Russell Henley 131
Matthew Fitzpatrick -131
0
Adam Long 113
Denny McCarthy -113
0
Mark Hubbard -103
Taylor Moore 103
0
Matt Kuchar -192
Aaron Rai 192
0
Rickie Fowler -101
Denny McCarthy 101
0
Adam Long 110
Alex Smalley -110
0
David Lipsky 127
Alex Smalley -127
0
Matthias Schwab 111
Cameron Davis -111
0
David Lipsky 162
Keith Mitchell -162
0
Gary Woodland -102
Patrick Reed 102
0
Paul Casey -134
Gary Woodland 134
0
Sergio Garcia -140
Cameron Young 140
0
Sergio Garcia -152
Patrick Reed 152
0
Si Woo Kim -107
Keith Mitchell 107
0
Jason Day -101
Patrick Reed 101
0
Jhonattan Vegas -117
Max Homa 117
0
Matt Kuchar -119
Jason Day 119
0
Max Homa 139
Cameron Young -139
0
Nate Lashley -130
Kurt Kitayama 130
0
Si Woo Kim -110
Max Homa 110
0
Jhonattan Vegas -129
Joel Dahmen 129
0
Matt Kuchar -156
Joel Dahmen 156
0
Paul Casey -139
Patrick Reed 139

r1 results 2-1 +0.81u

R2

Golfer Fair Line
Taylor Moore -107
Rory Sabbatini 107
0
Peter Malnati 123
Kevin Streelman -123
0
Michael Thompson 135
Keith Mitchell -135
0
Sergio Garcia -129
Gary Woodland 129
0
Luke List 136
Gary Woodland -136
0
Sergio Garcia -163
Luke List 163
0
Chad Ramey 118
Adam Long -118
0
Nate Lashley 107
Adam Long -107
0
Nate Lashley -103
Chad Ramey 103
0
Max Homa 119
Jason Day -119
0
Rickie Fowler 127
Jason Day -127
0
Rickie Fowler 105
Max Homa -105
0
Tyler Duncan 175
Matt Kuchar -175
0
Patrick Reed -118
Joel Dahmen 118
0
Jhonattan Vegas -157
Harry Higgs 157
0
Russell Knox 148
Russell Henley -148
0
Mackenzie Hughes 139
Cameron Young -139
0
David Lipsky -109
Brandon Wu 109
0
Ryan Armour 149
Brian Harman -149
0
Kramer Hickok 142
Brian Harman -142
0
Ryan Armour 105
Kramer Hickok -105
0
John Huh 117
Brendan Steele -117
0
Doug Ghim -104
Brendan Steele 104
0
John Huh 123
Doug Ghim -123
0
Tony Finau -133
Sepp Straka 133
0
Tyrrell Hatton -140
Sepp Straka 140
0
Tyrrell Hatton -105
Tony Finau 105
0
Webb Simpson -130
Francesco Molinari 130
0
Rory McIlroy -244
Francesco Molinari 244
0
Webb Simpson 194
Rory McIlroy -194
0
Nick Taylor 101
Branden Grace -101
0
Dylan Frittelli -102
Branden Grace 102
0
Nick Taylor 106
Dylan Frittelli -106
0
Marc Leishman 107
Abraham Ancer -107
0
Corey Conners -110
Abraham Ancer 110
0
Marc Leishman 119
Corey Conners -119
0
Keegan Bradley -155
J.T. Poston 155
0
Lanto Griffin 102
J.T. Poston -102
0
Lanto Griffin 153
Keegan Bradley -153
0
Seamus Power -140
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 140
0
Matt Jones -113
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 113
0
Seamus Power -128
Matt Jones 128
0
Denny McCarthy -108
Aaron Rai 108
0
Lee Hodges 132
Aaron Rai -132
0
Lee Hodges 131
Denny McCarthy -131
0
Mark Hubbard -126
Brice Garnett 126

Turns out DM'ing the creator of TheBAT, "I'm TomG from TwoPlusTwo Forums, would you like to sponsor my membership?" doesn't work all that well. Things are on hold until a new sponsor is found as I don't want to pay $80/month for something that will probably lose but I'm open to testing it.

wow the nerve of that guy, has no idea who he's dealing with

r2 results: 8-5 +2.41u

early results from whole tourney is very promising 12-2-1 +10.45u but could still lose overall as there's 32 total bets actioned for that

beginning to feel real confidence in this and considering dropping real sklanskys on the results instead of on excel



but obviously once i start wagering it'll be doom switch time, today only got 4 of my day 2's booked in the vigfree thread and those were 4 of my 5 losses so already on track

r3 here we come

Golfer Fair Line
Si Woo Kim -119
Mackenzie Hughes 119
0
Matthew NeSmith 101
Mackenzie Hughes -101
0
Si Woo Kim -134
Matthew NeSmith 134
0
Dylan Wu -101
Ben Kohles 101
0
Cameron Young -199
Ben Kohles 199
0
Dylan Wu 192
Cameron Young -192
0
Stewart Cink 119
Joel Dahmen -119
0
Justin Lower 166
Joel Dahmen -166
0
Stewart Cink -138
Justin Lower 138
0
Kevin Chappell -114
Austin Smotherman 114
0
Paul Barjon 121
Austin Smotherman -121
0
Paul Barjon 134
Kevin Chappell -134
0
Tony Finau -174
Matthew Wolff 174
0
Scott Piercy 103
Matthew Wolff -103
0
Tony Finau -184
Scott Piercy 184
0
Martin Laird -137
Henrik Norlander 137
0
Ryan Armour -121
Henrik Norlander 121
0
Ryan Armour 114
Martin Laird -114
0
Camilo Villegas 151
Brendan Steele -151
0
Stephan Jaeger 123
Brendan Steele -123
0
Stephan Jaeger -119
Camilo Villegas 119
0
Lanto Griffin 103
C.T. Pan -103
0
Luke Donald 126
C.T. Pan -126
0
Luke Donald 111
Lanto Griffin -111
0
Sergio Garcia -227
Ben Martin 227
0
Rickie Fowler -147
Ben Martin 147
0
Sergio Garcia -152
Rickie Fowler 152
0
Kyoung-Hoon Lee -126
Callum Tarren 126
0
Dawie van der Walt 144
Callum Tarren -144
0
Kyoung-Hoon Lee -184
Dawie van der Walt 184
0
Hank Lebioda 185
Abraham Ancer -185
0
J.T. Poston 147
Abraham Ancer -147
0
J.T. Poston -123
Hank Lebioda 123
0
Turk Pettit 103
Peter Malnati -103
0
Taylor Moore -118
Peter Malnati 118
0
Turk Pettit 118
Taylor Moore -118
0
Matthew Fitzpatrick -232
Adam Schenk 232
0
Jhonattan Vegas -164
Adam Schenk 164
0
Matthew Fitzpatrick -144
Jhonattan Vegas 144
0
Russell Henley -112
Matt Kuchar 112
0
Michael Thompson 160
Matt Kuchar -160
0
Russell Henley -168
Michael Thompson 168
0
Rory Sabbatini 108
Anirban Lahiri -108
0
Tyrrell Hatton -164
Anirban Lahiri 164
0
Tyrrell Hatton -169
Rory Sabbatini 169
0
Michael Gligic 134
Chase Seiffert -134
0
Russell Knox -135
Chase Seiffert 135
0
Russell Knox -187
Michael Gligic 187
0
Keegan Bradley -121
Brian Harman 121
0
Chad Ramey 147
Brian Harman -147
0
Keegan Bradley -177
Chad Ramey 177
0
Rory McIlroy -301
Chez Reavie 301
0
Troy Merritt -146
Chez Reavie 146
0
Troy Merritt 202
Rory McIlroy -202
0
James Hahn 130
Denny McCarthy -130
0
Kurt Kitayama 144
Denny McCarthy -144
0
Kurt Kitayama 111
James Hahn -111
0
Dylan Frittelli 157
Corey Conners -157
0
Nick Taylor 177
Corey Conners -177
0
Nick Taylor 110
Dylan Frittelli -110
0
Max Homa 116
Jason Day -116
0
Luke List 135
Jason Day -135
0
Max Homa -119
Luke List 119
0
Kelly Kraft 113
David Lingmerth -113

R3 results 9-3 +6.91u

looks like we're all out of bubble gum


onto round 4 zomg lines are out before 4 am zomg more celebration!


Golfer Fair Line
Taylor Moore -118
Kevin Chappell 118
0
Peter Malnati -114
Callum Tarren 114
0
Dawie van der Walt 191
Brendan Steele -191
0
Ryan Armour 120
Martin Laird -120
0
Paul Barjon 176
Joel Dahmen -176
0
Kelly Kraft 126
Dylan Wu -126
0
Dylan Frittelli -125
Chase Seiffert 125
0
Russell Henley -218
Ben Martin 218
0
Luke Donald -118
Henrik Norlander 118
0
Justin Lower 107
Ben Kohles -107
0
Rory Sabbatini 107
Matthew NeSmith -107
0
Matt Kuchar -101
Abraham Ancer 101
0
Stewart Cink -138
Camilo Villegas 138
0
David Lingmerth 120
Chez Reavie -120
0
Tyrrell Hatton -157
Russell Knox 157
0
Sergio Garcia -153
Rickie Fowler 153
0
Tony Finau -205
Austin Smotherman 205
0
Troy Merritt -203
Michael Gligic 203
0
J.T. Poston -122
Hank Lebioda 122
0
Stephan Jaeger 105
Scott Piercy -105
0
Mackenzie Hughes 158
Corey Conners -158
0
Kurt Kitayama -103
Adam Schenk 103
0
Turk Pettit 124
Lanto Griffin -124
0
Nick Taylor 148
Jason Day -148
0
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 130
Jhonattan Vegas -130
0
Si Woo Kim -114
C.T. Pan 114
0
Luke List 108
Denny McCarthy -108
0
Rory McIlroy -188
Brian Harman 188
0
Matthew Wolff 102
Chad Ramey -102
0
Matthew Fitzpatrick -130
Cameron Young 130
0
James Hahn 125
Anirban Lahiri -125
0
Max Homa 133
Keegan Bradley -133

whole tourney results: an astounding sun run of 26-5-1 +21.62u
r4 results: a more reasonable 3-5-1 -2.23u

entire tournament: 48-19-2 +29.52u
2022: 366-280-41 +60.74u, 836.91u wagered, ROI=7.26%

thoughts on sample size? time to ape into this or continue to stay the course and collect data?

Take some advice from the old sage Jesse Livermore. Start slow, build up as your winnings grow. We don't live forever. You put what seems to be a lot of work into this. Time to capture some dividends.

This week was probably 2 sigma above random.

Ignoring the 41 pushes, you're correctly picking winners 56.66% of the time over 646 samples. 95% CI based margin of error for this is about +-3.9%, so this sample size tells you that the model is probably better at picking winners than flipping a coin. Depending on the average odds you are betting into the model may still have a negative expected value overall. But, I assume you're tracking that as well, so if it looks good to you then rock on and test the waters with some small stakes to start.

Koepka's withdrawal meant he wasn't part of my data scrape but was part of the line scrape so just ignore the funky stuff those are koepka matchups i didn't bother manually cleaning up

R1

Golfer Fair Line
Sebastian Munoz -128
Danny Willett 128
0
Bubba Watson #DIV/0!
0 #DIV/0!
0
Talor Gooch 109
Bubba Watson -109
0
Seamus Power -108
Keith Mitchell 108
0
Jason Day 130
Hideki Matsuyama -130
0
Mackenzie Hughes 132
Jason Day -132
0
Si Woo Kim 101
Patton Kizzire -101
0
Xander Schauffele -112
Dustin Johnson 112
0
Carlos Ortiz 108
Brendon Todd -108
0
Mito Pereira 108
Ian Poulter -108
0
Scott Stallings 141
Alex Noren -141
0
Adam Hadwin -128
Aaron Rai 128
0
Taylor Moore 105
Sahith Theegala -105
0
Matthias Schwab 108
Davis Riley -108
0
Dylan Frittelli 104
Cameron Champ -104
0
Lanto Griffin -114
Dylan Frittelli 114
0
J.J. Spaun -115
Branden Grace 115
0
Joaquin Niemann 104
Adam Scott -104
0
Marc Leishman 131
Joaquin Niemann -131
0
Nate Lashley 125
C.T. Pan -125
0
Tom Hoge 224
Justin Thomas -224
0
Scottie Scheffler -190
Jordan Spieth 190
0
Martin Laird 129
Charles Howell III -129
0
Nick Taylor 103
Martin Laird -103
0
Sepp Straka -126
Ryan Palmer 126
0
Will Zalatoris -172
Mark Hubbard 172


Whole Tourney

Golfer Fair Line
Charles Howell III -146
Matthew NeSmith 146
0
Patton Kizzire -142
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 142
0
Si Woo Kim -149
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 149
0
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 116
C.T. Pan -116
0
Keith Mitchell 106
Sebastian Munoz -106
0
Lee Westwood -110
Danny Willett 110
0
Luke List -108
Dylan Frittelli 108
0
Matt Kuchar -126
Aaron Wise 126
0
Matt Kuchar 109
Tommy Fleetwood -109
0
Sepp Straka -102
Sebastian Munoz 102
0
Si Woo Kim 103
Sebastian Munoz -103
0
Adam Scott #NUM!
0 #NUM!
0
0 #NUM!
Will Zalatoris #NUM!
0
Bubba Watson #NUM!
0 #NUM!
0
Bubba Watson -217
Cameron Champ 217
0
Bubba Watson -135
Marc Leishman 135
0
Jason Kokrak -102
Talor Gooch 102
0
Joaquin Niemann -138
Talor Gooch 138
0
Marc Leishman #NUM!
0 #NUM!
0
Talor Gooch -117
Aaron Wise 117
0
Talor Gooch -105
Maverick McNealy 105
0
Tommy Fleetwood #NUM!
0 #NUM!
0
Hideki Matsuyama -128
Joaquin Niemann 128
0
Hideki Matsuyama -113
Will Zalatoris 113
0
Hideki Matsuyama 129
Xander Schauffele -129
0
Jason Day -185
Davis Riley 185
0
Jason Day -104
Jhonattan Vegas 104
0
Jason Day -112
Kevin Kisner 112
0
Keith Mitchell 104
Sepp Straka -104
0
Lanto Griffin 128
Keith Mitchell -128
0
Mackenzie Hughes 143
Aaron Wise -143
0
Marc Leishman 119
Jason Day -119
0
Seamus Power -109
Aaron Wise 109
0
Seamus Power 120
Alex Noren -120
0
Seamus Power 103
Jason Kokrak -103
0
Dustin Johnson -146
Jordan Spieth 146
0
Dustin Johnson 101
Sam Burns -101
0
Dustin Johnson -117
Will Zalatoris 117
0
Dustin Johnson 122
Xander Schauffele -122
0
Jhonattan Vegas -116
Si Woo Kim 116
0
Justin Thomas -150
Xander Schauffele 150
0
Kevin Kisner -118
Patton Kizzire 118
0
Patton Kizzire -112
Tom Hoge 112
0
Sam Burns 121
Xander Schauffele -121
0
Scottie Scheffler -193
Xander Schauffele 193
0
Si Woo Kim 103
Aaron Wise -103
0
Scott Stallings -114
Brendon Todd 114
0
Ian Poulter -146
Aaron Rai 146
0
Ian Poulter -141
J.J. Spaun 141
0
Lanto Griffin 116
Mito Pereira -116
0
Alex Noren -132
Adam Hadwin 132
0
Alex Noren -215
Cameron Champ 215
0
Alex Noren -128
Jhonattan Vegas 128
0
Kurt Kitayama 130
Sahith Theegala -130
0
Matthias Schwab -105
David Lipsky 105
0
Stephan Jaeger 110
Brandon Wu -110
0
Adam Hadwin -163
Davis Riley 163
0
Adam Hadwin 108
Maverick McNealy -108
0
Jason Kokrak -104
Jhonattan Vegas 104
0
Lanto Griffin 156
Maverick McNealy -156
0
Adam Scott 102
Joaquin Niemann -102
0
Adam Scott -121
Tommy Fleetwood 121
0
C.T. Pan 111
Tom Hoge -111
0
Joaquin Niemann 113
Will Zalatoris -113
0
Tommy Fleetwood 119
Joaquin Niemann -119
0
Jason Kokrak -103
Maverick McNealy 103
0
Jordan Spieth 145
Sam Burns -145
0
Justin Thomas 128
Scottie Scheffler -128
0
Will Zalatoris 123
Sam Burns -123
0
Charles Howell III -163
Nick Taylor 163
0
Jordan Spieth 323
Scottie Scheffler -323
0
Tommy Fleetwood 109
Jordan Spieth -109
0
Ryan Palmer 155
Sepp Straka -155

r1 result: 1-1-3 +0.11u

was up until 3 am and still no lines on pinny

swamped this am so only had time to grab pm lines just now

Golfer Fair Line
Matt Kuchar -149
Danny Willett 149
0
Sebastian Munoz -143
Danny Willett 143
0
Sebastian Munoz 110
Matt Kuchar -110
0
Talor Gooch 108
Bubba Watson -108
0
Jason Day 132
Hideki Matsuyama -132
0
Mackenzie Hughes 174
Hideki Matsuyama -174
0
Mackenzie Hughes 130
Jason Day -130
0
Seamus Power -108
Keith Mitchell 108
0
Kevin Kisner 150
Dustin Johnson -150
0
Xander Schauffele -104
Dustin Johnson 104
0
Xander Schauffele -157
Kevin Kisner 157
0
Si Woo Kim -102
Patton Kizzire 102
0
Carlos Ortiz 102
Brendon Todd -102
0
Mito Pereira 106
Ian Poulter -106
0
Scott Stallings 135
Alex Noren -135

r2 results: 3-1 +2.18u

unsure what to do here ie which set of h2h lines to use for the test, golf h2h always weird but this is definitely something i've never seen before

so i decided to just use the first sets, been somewhat interesting as it was easier to just go along with the scrape so now i have two sets of 10k sims for these doubles and can see the variance first hand

perhaps 10k sims not enough

however, with the 5% threshold it seems to be fairly safe to continue doing 10ks because it's not going to swing significantly enough where a loser can sometimes appear as a winner and vice versa

there's also some more weird stuff this round because a few low sample guys made it past the cut

Golfer Fair Line
James Hahn 119
Christiaan Bezuidenhout -119
0
James Hahn 119
Christiaan Bezuidenhout -119
0
Joohyung Kim -121
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 121
0
Joohyung Kim -125
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 125
0
Joohyung Kim -140
James Hahn 140
0
Joohyung Kim -138
James Hahn 138
0
Ian Poulter 145
Dustin Johnson -145
0
Ian Poulter 150
Dustin Johnson -150
0
Michael Thompson 227
Dustin Johnson -227
0
Michael Thompson 218
Dustin Johnson -218
0
Michael Thompson 146
Ian Poulter -146
0
Michael Thompson 151
Ian Poulter -151
0
Stephan Jaeger 112
Dylan Frittelli -112
0
Stephan Jaeger 109
Dylan Frittelli -109
0
Trey Mullinax 130
Dylan Frittelli -130
0
Trey Mullinax 129
Dylan Frittelli -129
0
Trey Mullinax 114
Stephan Jaeger -114
0
Trey Mullinax 114
Stephan Jaeger -114
0
Taylor Moore -122
Austin Smotherman 122
0
Taylor Moore -122
Austin Smotherman 122
0
Paul Barjon 123
Austin Smotherman -123
0
Paul Barjon 123
Austin Smotherman -123
0
Taylor Moore -145
Paul Barjon 145
0
Taylor Moore -150
Paul Barjon 150
0
Jason Day -109
Aaron Wise 109
0
Jason Day -110
Aaron Wise 110
0
Rory Sabbatini 126
Aaron Wise -126
0
Rory Sabbatini 127
Aaron Wise -127
0
Rory Sabbatini 146
Jason Day -146
0
Rory Sabbatini 138
Jason Day -138
0
Vince Whaley 116
Cameron Champ -116
0
Vince Whaley 122
Cameron Champ -122
0
Vaughn Taylor 126
Cameron Champ -126
0
Vaughn Taylor 121
Cameron Champ -121
0
Vince Whaley -106
Vaughn Taylor 106
0
Vince Whaley -106
Vaughn Taylor 106
0
Davis Riley 162
Adam Scott -162
0
Davis Riley 160
Adam Scott -160
0
Tom Hoge 142
Adam Scott -142
0
Tom Hoge 146
Adam Scott -146
0
Tom Hoge -118
Davis Riley 118
0
Tom Hoge -115
Davis Riley 115
0
Dawie van der Walt 142
Adam Svensson -142
0
Dawie van der Walt 140
Adam Svensson -140
0
Pat Perez -129
Adam Svensson 129
0
Pat Perez -132
Adam Svensson 132
0
Pat Perez -178
Dawie van der Walt 178
0
Pat Perez -189
Dawie van der Walt 189
0
Patrick Rodgers 105
Aaron Rai -105
0
Patrick Rodgers 103
Aaron Rai -103
0
Brice Garnett 119
Aaron Rai -119
0
Brice Garnett 123
Aaron Rai -123
0
Patrick Rodgers -118
Brice Garnett 118
0
Patrick Rodgers -116
Brice Garnett 116
0
Wesley Bryan 115
Adam Schenk -115
0
Wesley Bryan 113
Adam Schenk -113
0
Andrew Novak 114
Adam Schenk -114
0
Andrew Novak 113
Adam Schenk -113
0
Wesley Bryan -102
Andrew Novak 102
0
Wesley Bryan -103
Andrew Novak 103
0
David Lipsky -101
Carlos Ortiz 101
0
Matt Kuchar -151
Carlos Ortiz 151
0
Matt Kuchar -162
David Lipsky 162
0
Matt Kuchar -156
David Lipsky 156
0
Kyle Wilshire -101
Bill Haas 101
0
Kyle Wilshire 106
Bill Haas -106
0
Seth Reeves 136
Bill Haas -136
0
Seth Reeves 134
Bill Haas -134
0
Seth Reeves 127
Kyle Wilshire -127
0
Seth Reeves 130
Kyle Wilshire -130
0
Scottie Scheffler -339
Emiliano Grillo 339
0
Mark Hubbard -118
Emiliano Grillo 118
0
Scottie Scheffler -268
Mark Hubbard 268
0
Sahith Theegala -110
Branden Grace 110
0
Jhonattan Vegas -145
Branden Grace 145
0
Sahith Theegala 134
Jhonattan Vegas -134
0
Matthias Schwab 118
Lanto Griffin -118
0
Peter Malnati 125
Lanto Griffin -125
0
Peter Malnati 112
Matthias Schwab -112
0
Tommy Fleetwood -116
Marc Leishman 116
0
Nate Lashley 140
Marc Leishman -140
0
Tommy Fleetwood -162
Nate Lashley 162
0
Maverick McNealy 191
Justin Thomas -191
0
Scott Stallings 239
Justin Thomas -239
0
Scott Stallings 125
Maverick McNealy -125
0
Francesco Molinari -165
Chesson Hadley 165
0
Sepp Straka -215
Chesson Hadley 215
0
Sepp Straka -129
Francesco Molinari 129
0
Mito Pereira 127
Alex Noren -127
0
J.J. Spaun 138
Alex Noren -138
0
Mito Pereira -110
J.J. Spaun 110
0
Callum Tarren 121
Brandon Wu -121
0
Jared Wolfe 151
Brandon Wu -151
0
Jared Wolfe 131
Callum Tarren -131
0
Hideki Matsuyama -206
Beau Hossler 206
0
Seamus Power -152
Beau Hossler 152
0
Seamus Power 136
Hideki Matsuyama -136
0
Max McGreevy 119
Joseph Bramlett -119
0
Matthew NeSmith -124
Joseph Bramlett 124
0
Max McGreevy 144
Matthew NeSmith -144
0
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 139
Jason Kokrak -139
0
Jordan Spieth -113
Jason Kokrak 113
0
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 148
Jordan Spieth -148
0
Xander Schauffele -168
Keith Mitchell 168
0
Peter Uihlein 139
Keith Mitchell -139
0
Xander Schauffele -235
Peter Uihlein 235
0
Justin Lower 118
Charl Schwartzel -118
0
Joaquin Niemann -179
Charl Schwartzel 179
0
Justin Lower 224
Joaquin Niemann -224
0
Tyler Duncan -151
Martin Trainer 151
0
Patton Kizzire -237
Martin Trainer 237
0
Tyler Duncan 161
Patton Kizzire -161
0
Ryan Palmer -165
David Skinns 165
0
Sebastian Munoz -204
David Skinns 204
0
Sebastian Munoz -127
Ryan Palmer 127
0
Kiradech Aphibarnrat -126
Conrad Shindler 126
0
Michael Gligic 103
Conrad Shindler -103
0
Michael Gligic 121
Kiradech Aphibarnrat -121


here's the weird stuff which is a "good bet" but i don't think sample size on these guys is large enough to be meaningful so i'll track these but they won't go into the final results

J Kim Bezuidenhout 122 -148
J Kim Hahn 101 -122
Kuchar Lipsky -143 117
Wilshire Haas 137 -167
Wilshire Reeves 112 -136
B Wu Wolfe -132 109
McGreevy Bramlett 133 -162
Palmer Skinns -147 121
Aphibarnrat Shindler 146 -179
Shindler Gligic 138 -169
Gligic Aphibarnrat -112 -107

r3 weird stuff continues to to a huge failure 4-7 -3.05u

but hey, a system that spits out losers is just as good as one that spits out winners, could be the next ben the bettor

lifetime we're 20-49-2 -27.57u at -32.19% ROI for low sample weirdness, almost hard to imagine we'd run that bad just randomly picking, i'm thinking the people setting/moving the lines perhaps are basing it off actual knowledge of said golfers that isn't part of shotlink data and hence why we disagree so much and usually in the wrong direction - seems there'll be a few more low sample weirdness in r4

official r3 went almost as poorly 6-7 -2.58u

but now we're onto r4

Golfer Fair Line
Xander Schauffele -293
Justin Lower 293
0
Pat Perez -145
Justin Lower 145
0
Xander Schauffele -189
Pat Perez 189
0
Brice Garnett 112
Brandon Wu -112
0
Joseph Bramlett 114
Brandon Wu -114
0
Joseph Bramlett 112
Brice Garnett -112
0
Scott Stallings 140
Alex Noren -140
0
Mark Hubbard 147
Alex Noren -147
0
Scott Stallings -105
Mark Hubbard 105
0
Paul Barjon 153
Matthew NeSmith -153
0
Seth Reeves 157
Matthew NeSmith -157
0
Seth Reeves 108
Paul Barjon -108
0
Matt Kuchar -141
Aaron Rai 141
0
Patrick Rodgers 104
Aaron Rai -104
0
Patrick Rodgers 148
Matt Kuchar -148
0
Francesco Molinari -104
Branden Grace 104
0
Nate Lashley 109
Branden Grace -109
0
Nate Lashley 107
Francesco Molinari -107
0
Vince Whaley 141
Aaron Wise -141
0
Rory Sabbatini 127
Aaron Wise -127
0
Vince Whaley 114
Rory Sabbatini -114
0
Conrad Shindler 272
Adam Scott -272
0
Dylan Frittelli 169
Adam Scott -169
0
Dylan Frittelli -154
Conrad Shindler 154
0
Michael Thompson -139
David Skinns 139
0
Mito Pereira -194
David Skinns 194
0
Mito Pereira -139
Michael Thompson 139
0
Emiliano Grillo -102
Adam Schenk 102
0
Bill Haas 105
Adam Schenk -105
0
Emiliano Grillo -111
Bill Haas 111
0
Tom Hoge -125
Carlos Ortiz 125
0
Taylor Moore -101
Carlos Ortiz 101
0
Tom Hoge -118
Taylor Moore 118
0
Lanto Griffin -141
Callum Tarren 141
0
Chesson Hadley 126
Callum Tarren -126
0
Lanto Griffin -191
Chesson Hadley 191
0
Dustin Johnson -233
Austin Smotherman 233
0
Trey Mullinax 104
Austin Smotherman -104
0
Trey Mullinax 248
Dustin Johnson -248
0
Vaughn Taylor 122
Cameron Champ -122
0
Ian Poulter -131
Cameron Champ 131
0
Vaughn Taylor 147
Ian Poulter -147
0
Seamus Power 137
Hideki Matsuyama -137
0
Joohyung Kim 144
Hideki Matsuyama -144
0
Seamus Power -112
Joohyung Kim 112
0
Matthias Schwab 133
Marc Leishman -133
0
Peter Uihlein 145
Marc Leishman -145
0
Peter Uihlein 107
Matthias Schwab -107
0
Maverick McNealy -127
J.J. Spaun 127
0
Jason Kokrak -130
J.J. Spaun 130
0
Maverick McNealy 101
Jason Kokrak -101
0
Tyler Duncan 180
Jason Day -180
0
Keith Mitchell 109
Jason Day -109
0
Tyler Duncan 155
Keith Mitchell -155
0
Peter Malnati 105
David Lipsky -105
0
Stephan Jaeger 108
David Lipsky -108
0
Stephan Jaeger -102
Peter Malnati 102
0
Sahith Theegala -119
Adam Svensson 119
0
Kyle Wilshire 102
Adam Svensson -102
0
Sahith Theegala -121
Kyle Wilshire 121
0
Christiaan Bezuidenhout -116
Beau Hossler 116
0
Scottie Scheffler -322
Beau Hossler 322
0
Scottie Scheffler -293
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 293
0
Sepp Straka -247
Martin Trainer 247
0
Tommy Fleetwood -285
Martin Trainer 285
0
Tommy Fleetwood -115
Sepp Straka 115
0
Ryan Palmer -114
Charl Schwartzel 114
0
Davis Riley -114
Charl Schwartzel 114
0
Ryan Palmer 101
Davis Riley -101
0
Jhonattan Vegas -178
Andrew Novak 178
0
Michael Gligic 115
Andrew Novak -115
0
Michael Gligic 212
Jhonattan Vegas -212
0
Kyoung-Hoon Lee -113
James Hahn 113
0
Justin Thomas -295
James Hahn 295
0
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 251
Justin Thomas -251
0
Jared Wolfe -107
Dawie van der Walt 107
0
Max McGreevy -120
Dawie van der Walt 120
0
Max McGreevy -107
Jared Wolfe 107
0
Jordan Spieth 104
Joaquin Niemann -104
0
Sebastian Munoz 131
Joaquin Niemann -131
0
Sebastian Munoz 120
Jordan Spieth -120
0
Wesley Bryan 101
Kiradech Aphibarnrat -101
0
Patton Kizzire -162
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 162
0
Wesley Bryan 162
Patton Kizzire -162


i also did futures, this is very much in the trial stage of things so not even tracking this yet as i need to read up more on this and think deeper into methodology - ie do i need to sim everyone, can i just sim the leaders and approximate chance of someone 6 strokes out in the field to win?, i also don't go to the second step of playoffs but instead treat ties as null ie in one sime Munoz finishes in first place 37.3% of the time but given the high frequency of ties this gets trimmed to 29.8%

what i did on the fly was lets say there are 20k instances of 1st place finishes in the 10k sim, then i simply reduce all by half etc so if Spieth won 5k he's now 2.5k etc etc - something i just did on the fly and don't often play around with, i'm sure it's a terrible methodology but i've found before i can really start reading up on in via google scholar and really grinding out something decent i first need to struggle and play around with something total crap first so i have some frame of reference, ie i can use my crap model to think oh "i f'ed up here and there" whereas if i have no starting point it's all just over my head and i make the same mistakes anyway but this way don't learn from them

anyway, if only these guys were remaining (this goes like 6 shots from leader) then this is the fair line

Golfer Fair Line
Sebastian Munoz 236
Jordan Spieth 343
Joaquin Niemann 574
James Hahn 2797
Justin Thomas 572
K.H. Lee 4733
Charl Schwartzel 5668
Ryan Palmer 3938
Davis Riley 10506
Scottie Scheffler 1709
Beau Hossler 13504
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 28344
Stephan Jaeger 40271
David Lipsky 31188

Munoz going at 297 on pinny now seems to be good value with 18% EV
Thomas is 634 and reps 9% EV
palmer, rily/scheffler/hossler all seem to be profitable, especially scheffler, but they are still huge longshots at 2/1/6/1% to win respectively

but i think a small wager on munuz to win is good value here, mostly because spieth/niemann are a huge fan favorites, no way spieth should be favorite to win this being a stroke behind the leader and having a ton of guys nipping at his heels on a very easy course but alas pinny has him at 195 which has him winning 34% of the time, same with Niemann at 440 winning 19% whereas i got them at 23 & 15