Whoops I said I would let everyone know how the NHL Faceoff thing went and then deleted my account. Here it is sorry guys.
This is based off the Bayesian paper we talked about that accounts for hands. I only used faceoffs that had a sample size of 40 or more vs. the hand and I only used their last 200 faceoffs. The sample size was neutral only faceoffs.
This created 691 games that met the criteria. I also set a min edge of 0.05 for a bet to be bettable.
Of those 380 were no bets and 311 were bets. I only bet each faceoff once and no playoff bets.
The total record went 184-127
Risk: $90,411.50
Net: $9,487.50
ROI: 10.48%
Not too bad. Throughout I kept track of a system that doesn't use the approach from the paper:
Net: 2462.5 on 92987.5 bet. Record: 172-141
Only two more bets not as good of a result.
It was interesting project. Going forward I doubt I will bet them. It's too much work to sit there, wait for the lineups, hope it doesn't move, etc. but it is nice to show profit in the NHL for once!