I dunno what's happening with TB. We are crushing the lines and it's just not working out and this is the model I had the most confidence in since I've been using it for so long. Hopefully it will turn around. A lot of the losses were because of something that happened in the 9th inning or later. Four winning days in a row for K!
TB:
Trout TB -125 over C. Frazier (BM) LOSS -1
Gallo +105 over K. Davis (BM) PUSH
Springer -115 over Cruz (BM) LOSS -1.15
Soto -110 over Arenado (TG/5D/JAZZ) LOSS -1.1
Yesterday: 0-3-1 -3.5u
Total: 45-46-19 -4.92u
K:
Jeremy Hellickson K o3 +108 (BM) WIN +1.08
David Hess K u4 -115 (BM) WIN +1
Musgrove o5 PUSH (they kind of lose faith in him once he hits 90 pitches instead of 100, might need to monitor going forward)
Matz o5 WIN +1
Arrieta o4.5 -120 (BM) WIN +1
Flaherty o6 WIN +1
Odorizzi o4 LOSS -1.14
Peacock o5 -109 (BM) LOSS -1.09
Happ o4.5 +110 (BM) WIN +1.1
Minor o4.5 LOSS -1.14 (blew so many 0-2 and 1-2 counts)
Yesterday: 6-3-1 +2.81u
Total: 133-116-24 +9.58u
HRR:
Merrifield HRR -105 over Kiermaier PUSH
E. Escobar o1.5 -114 (BB) WIN +1
C. Correa HRR -110 over J. Schoop WIN +1
Carpenter -115 over Cain WIN +1
Moustakas +100 over Ozuna CANCELLED (Moustakas DNS)
Villar -105 over T. Anderson LOSS -1.05
Realmuto +115 over Ramos LOSS -1 (I wonder what the For Profit Syndicate had on Realmuto and Ramos that we didn't)
McCutchen +110 over Cano CANCELLED (Cano DNS)
Yelich o2 LOSS -1.14
Peralta o1.5 WIN +1
D. Smith JR u2 CANCELLED (DNS)
JD Martinez o2 CANCELLED (PPD)
Soto o2 PUSH
Castellanos o1.5 CANCELLED (PPD)
Alonso u2 LOSS -1.14
Ramos u2 PUSH
Moncada o2 WIN +1
Trout o2 LOSS -1.14
Voit HRR -115 over Pujols WIN +1
Pujols u2 WIN +1
A. Simmons u2 WIN +1
Yesterday: 8-5-2 +2.53
Total: 130-102-36 +17.46u
Miguel Cabrera o1.5
N. Walker o1.5
Lindor o2
Freeman o2
E. Escobar o1.5
Pham o2
Alex Gordon u2
Yelich o2
Eddie Rosario u2
Y. Gurriel u2
PIscotty u2
Trout o2
DJ LeMahieu u2
A. Simmons u2
Adam Frazier o1.5
Margot HRR -115 over D. Gordon
J. Donaldson HRR -115 over E. Suarez
J. Turner HRR -115 over K. BRyant
Y. Puig +100 over N. Markakis
TB all at BM
Josh Bell +127 over David Peralta (BM)
Bryce Harper +110 over Conforto (BM)
Cain -115 over Ozuna
Tommy Pham -115 over Merrifield
Haniger +105 over Machado
I have Carrasco at 9.1 projected K's, so at least 8 fair is -220, but I wouldn't bet it at that, just because I usually have an upper and lower bound for K's and Carrasco's lower makes it a slightly EV bet, but there's enough out there not worth it.
Today's projections (IP on the left, K's on the right)
Pitcher Name IP K
Erik Swanson (R) 5.8 9.9
Nick Margevicius (L) 6.3 6.9
Patrick Corbin (L) 6.4 8.9
Carlos Carrasco (R) 6.7 9.3
Trent Thornton (R) 5.8 7.1
Zack Wheeler (R) 6.5 6.6
Spencer Turnbull (R) 6 6.3
Ivan Nova (R) 6.7 5.2
Lance Lynn (R) 5.7 5.8
Pablo Lopez (R) 6.3 6
Domingo German (R) 6.3 6.8
Frankie Montas (R) 6.9 5.5
Kenta Maeda (R) 6.4 7.4
Chris Stratton (R) 6.1 4.9
Ryne Stanek (R) 1.9 2.5
Homer Bailey (R) 6.2 5.3
Hector Velazquez (R) 6.4 4.8
Daniel Poncedeleon (R) 6 5.7
Trevor Williams (R) 6.6 5.1
Kevin Gausman (R) 6.5 5.5
Zach Eflin (R) 6.6 6.3
Jeff Samardzija (R) 6.1 6.2
Sonny Gray (R) 6.1 6.1
Jose Quintana (L) 6.3 6.1
Luke Weaver (R) 6 5.2
Michael Pineda (R) 6.6 5.7
Wade Miley (L) 6.5 4
Andrew Cashner (R) 6.1 4.2
Zach Davies (R) 6.2 4.5
Jeff Hoffman (R) 4.8 2.9
Fourth of so losing day with TB, 5th winning with K, 4th in a row HRR. TB dragging us down. We've settled into a small positive grind. The 10-20 unit swings daily was much more fun.
No golf this week - it's a pair tournament and I have no idea how to handicap that.
TB:
Josh Bell +127 over David Peralta (BM) PUSH
Bryce Harper +110 over Conforto (BM) LOSS -1
Cain -115 over Ozuna LOSS -1.15
Tommy Pham -115 over Merrifield PUSH
Haniger +105 over Machado WIN +1.05
Yesterday: 1-2-2 -1.1u
Total: 46-48-21 -6.02u
K:
Boyd o5.5 LOSS -1.14
Pablo Lopez o5 WIN +1
Luke Weaver o4.5 WIN +1
Cashner o3.5 WIN +1
Ivan Nova o4 PUSH
Zack Wheeler u6.5 +110 LOSS -1
Eflin o5 LOSS -1.14
Davies o4 +110 PUSH
Sonny Gray o5 -114 WIN +1
Wade Miley o4 +120 WIN +1.2
Pineda o4.5 +110 LOSS -1
Corbin o7 +110 LOSS -1 (got lucky and got the extra inning but then three line outs)
Stratton o4 +110 WIN +1.1
Montas o4.5 WIN +1
D. German o5 +100 (BM) PUSH
Yesterday: 7-4-3 +2.02u
Total: 140-120-27 +11.6u
HRR:
Miguel Cabrera o1.5 WIN +1
Castellanos HRR +130 over Bogaerts (Game 1) LOSS -1
J. Donaldson HRR -115 over E. Suarez WIN +1
J. Turner HRR -115 over K. BRyant WIN +1
Y. Puig +100 over N. Markakis WIN +1
Kiermaier -110 Merrifield WIN +1
Cano -115 McCutchen WIN +1
Adam Frazier o1.5 LOSS -1.14
CJ Cron -105 Y. Gurriel LOSS -1.05 (classic reach in the B8 on an error and score on an error to lose 1-0)
Schoop +120 Correa WIN +1.2
N. Walker o1.5 WIN +1
Lindor o2 LOSS -1.14
Freeman o2 WIN +1
E. Escobar o1.5 WIN +1
Pham o2 LOSS -1.14
Alex Gordon u2 WIN +1
Yelich o2 LOSS -1.14
Eddie Rosario u2 LOSS -1.14
Y. Gurriel u2 WIN +1
A. Cabrera -105 Chapman PUSH
Margot HRR -115 over D. Gordon LOSS -1.15
Piscotty u2 LOSS -1.14
Trout o2 LOSS -1.14
DJ LeMahieu u2 WIN +1
A. Simmons u2 WIN +1
Yesterday: 14-10-1 +3.02u
Total: 144-112-37 +20.48u
Graded Puig over Markakis as a push because they listed Puig as on Cleveland and Donaldson over Suarez as a push because they listed Donaldson as on the Marlins.
but they had no problem marking Margot over Gordon as a loss even though they put Margot on SEA and Gordon on SDN
Bets apparently weren't cancelled either until after the games were over. Were they free-rolling?
Last edited by fkjlhfdkjhkj.; 04-24-2019 at 08:49 AM.
Frasier o1.5 also ran himself out of a run on the base paths and Pham came within a foot of a 2run single too. A couple other tough losees on those two
