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Old 05-05-2021, 03:29 AM   #6951
JSkelts
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Honestly, I really like the markov chain idea - given the last shot what is the next shot type deal. Lets us sim out each frame/match and generate lines that way.
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Old 05-05-2021, 10:39 AM   #6952
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

For sure, if you and or Diced want to code the Markov model out go for it. Afterwards, I can post what I projected for the moneylines, spreads, totals etc. from the recent quarter, semi, and finals if you want to see how close the different granular approaches are to each other and the market.
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Old 05-05-2021, 08:20 PM   #6953
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Re Markov chain, pretty sure a few top players have an empirical notion of it, i.e. when to risk a low % pot chance with a reward of 16 subsequent 95% pots and a winning frame. Selby as much as anybody. Bingham seemed to change his strategy early in the match toward Selby's style and at one point was up 12-9.
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Old 05-06-2021, 10:49 AM   #6954
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by cockandbull View Post
Change of username
Slow pony here, thanks.
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Old 05-06-2021, 04:51 PM   #6955
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Do we even have the data needed to do a markov chain? Seems like we'd need more shot by shot type stuff than we have.
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Old 05-06-2021, 08:03 PM   #6956
DicedPineapples
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

2021-22 snooker schedule out: http://www.snooker.org/res/index.asp...=2&season=2021
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Old 05-07-2021, 12:16 PM   #6957
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Re Markov chain, pretty sure a few top players have an empirical notion of it, i.e. when to risk a low % pot chance with a reward of 16 subsequent 95% pots and a winning frame
Think that is rather implied odds?

Overall shouldn't a model of the game be based on defence and attack?

Defence broadly being assessed on the % that when scoring zero, the opponent does not score at their visit.

Attack based on scoring average when in a break.

A final stat could look at whether the opponent scores when the break ends (ie identifying how a player manages risk).
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Old 05-12-2021, 04:12 PM   #6958
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

What’s a snooker
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Old 05-12-2021, 07:36 PM   #6959
PokerHero77
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Originally Posted by davmcg View Post
Think that is rather implied odds?

Overall shouldn't a model of the game be based on defence and attack?

Defence broadly being assessed on the % that when scoring zero, the opponent does not score at their visit.

Attack based on scoring average when in a break.

A final stat could look at whether the opponent scores when the break ends (ie identifying how a player manages risk).
The following stats are compiled by the TV production team:

-Safety %: a non-potting shot which results in no pot success for the opponent;
-Short pot success %: A shot less than 6 feet resulting in a pot;
-Long pot success %: A shot more than 6 feet resulting in a pot.

I don't think these stats are archived anywhere, unfortunately.

I don't believe there is a stat collected for pot attempted and failed yielding opponent's pot success.

Markov chain model can be represented by a state matrix and a transition matrix. The model would then use different transition matrices (based on player skills and available options) to yield the next state. The state matrix should describe the opportunities for potting a red/color, and safeties.

Typically players look at least a few shots ahead, so the state matrix should account for that to some degree.
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Old 05-12-2021, 07:44 PM   #6960
JSkelts
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Originally Posted by Poogs View Post
Whatís a snooker
Meme version of pool basically
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Old 05-13-2021, 07:58 AM   #6961
Dreadnaught
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

off betting topic but on topic recommended watch - Gods of Snooker ...
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