Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-05-2021, 03:29 AM   #6951
JSkelts
grinder
 
JSkelts's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: Miming in the choir
Posts: 527
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Honestly, I really like the markov chain idea - given the last shot what is the next shot type deal. Lets us sim out each frame/match and generate lines that way.
JSkelts is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-05-2021, 10:39 AM   #6952
rabbitcoin
centurion
 
Join Date: Jan 2021
Location: Nevada, USA
Posts: 155
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

For sure, if you and or Diced want to code the Markov model out go for it. Afterwards, I can post what I projected for the moneylines, spreads, totals etc. from the recent quarter, semi, and finals if you want to see how close the different granular approaches are to each other and the market.
rabbitcoin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-05-2021, 08:20 PM   #6953
PokerHero77
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: And I haven't been to Europe
Posts: 3,595
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Re Markov chain, pretty sure a few top players have an empirical notion of it, i.e. when to risk a low % pot chance with a reward of 16 subsequent 95% pots and a winning frame. Selby as much as anybody. Bingham seemed to change his strategy early in the match toward Selby's style and at one point was up 12-9.
PokerHero77 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2021, 10:49 AM   #6954
NajdorfDefense
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
NajdorfDefense's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: World’s Greatest PosŤur
Posts: 17,248
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by cockandbull View Post
Change of username
Slow pony here, thanks.
NajdorfDefense is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2021, 04:51 PM   #6955
JSkelts
grinder
 
JSkelts's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: Miming in the choir
Posts: 527
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Do we even have the data needed to do a markov chain? Seems like we'd need more shot by shot type stuff than we have.
JSkelts is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2021, 08:03 PM   #6956
DicedPineapples
centurion
 
Join Date: Jan 2020
Posts: 147
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

2021-22 snooker schedule out: http://www.snooker.org/res/index.asp...=2&season=2021
DicedPineapples is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-07-2021, 12:16 PM   #6957
davmcg
veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,389
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Re Markov chain, pretty sure a few top players have an empirical notion of it, i.e. when to risk a low % pot chance with a reward of 16 subsequent 95% pots and a winning frame
Think that is rather implied odds?

Overall shouldn't a model of the game be based on defence and attack?

Defence broadly being assessed on the % that when scoring zero, the opponent does not score at their visit.

Attack based on scoring average when in a break.

A final stat could look at whether the opponent scores when the break ends (ie identifying how a player manages risk).
davmcg is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2021, 04:12 PM   #6958
Poogs
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 4,501
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

What’s a snooker
Poogs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2021, 07:36 PM   #6959
PokerHero77
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: And I haven't been to Europe
Posts: 3,595
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by davmcg View Post
Think that is rather implied odds?

Overall shouldn't a model of the game be based on defence and attack?

Defence broadly being assessed on the % that when scoring zero, the opponent does not score at their visit.

Attack based on scoring average when in a break.

A final stat could look at whether the opponent scores when the break ends (ie identifying how a player manages risk).
The following stats are compiled by the TV production team:

-Safety %: a non-potting shot which results in no pot success for the opponent;
-Short pot success %: A shot less than 6 feet resulting in a pot;
-Long pot success %: A shot more than 6 feet resulting in a pot.

I don't think these stats are archived anywhere, unfortunately.

I don't believe there is a stat collected for pot attempted and failed yielding opponent's pot success.

Markov chain model can be represented by a state matrix and a transition matrix. The model would then use different transition matrices (based on player skills and available options) to yield the next state. The state matrix should describe the opportunities for potting a red/color, and safeties.

Typically players look at least a few shots ahead, so the state matrix should account for that to some degree.
PokerHero77 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2021, 07:44 PM   #6960
JSkelts
grinder
 
JSkelts's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: Miming in the choir
Posts: 527
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by Poogs View Post
Whatís a snooker
Meme version of pool basically
JSkelts is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2021, 07:58 AM   #6961
Dreadnaught
old hand
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 1,783
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

off betting topic but on topic recommended watch - Gods of Snooker ...
Dreadnaught is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-01-2021, 12:02 AM   #6962
etothemc2
old hand
 
etothemc2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: South Bend
Posts: 1,306
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Are there any tennis databases that track whether a player serves or receives after winning the coin toss?

Edit: Although I suppose just taking a look at the first set game 1 serve/receive ratio might give me a pretty good idea of their preference
etothemc2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-01-2021, 01:46 PM   #6963
daringly
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 90
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by etothemc2 View Post
Are there any tennis databases that track whether a player serves or receives after winning the coin toss?

Edit: Although I suppose just taking a look at the first set game 1 serve/receive ratio might give me a pretty good idea of their preference
I haven't seen that. The player that serves first wins the matches more than they should -- maybe 52%. I always assumed that all players would choose to serve first.
daringly is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-02-2021, 02:40 AM   #6964
etothemc2
old hand
 
etothemc2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: South Bend
Posts: 1,306
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by daringly View Post
I haven't seen that. The player that serves first wins the matches more than they should -- maybe 52%. I always assumed that all players would choose to serve first.
I agree that it makes sense to serve first. But I saw a women's match the other day where the coin toss winner chose to receive. The announcers were offering praise, saying things such as it will allow her to get settled in a bit before serving on the second game. So I don't know if that is the conventional wisdom, or if there's a lot of variation amongst players, or if the player was an outlier, or if it is just more of a women's thing to receive first.

I am brainstorming some ideas for a model focusing on tennis total games, and realized it would be valuable to know each player's preference. This seems really obscure though to record on any stat sheet or point-by-point log. Although if it's true that only a small percentage of players prefer to receive, they will be easy to spot when combing through the data.
etothemc2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-02-2021, 04:50 PM   #6965
atrainpsu
old hand
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,808
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Not a big tennis guy, but wouldn’t serving first mean you have an extra serve if it goes an odd number of games? Seems like enough of an edge that everyone should do it, but maybe the math isn’t strong enough for some women where the break % is a lot higher.
atrainpsu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-02-2021, 09:38 PM   #6966
somigosaden
adept
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: sean-a-paul, somigosaden
Posts: 903
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by atrainpsu View Post
Not a big tennis guy, but wouldn’t serving first mean you have an extra serve if it goes an odd number of games? Seems like enough of an edge that everyone should do it, but maybe the math isn’t strong enough for some women where the break % is a lot higher.
It shouldn't matter since you have to win by two, thereby giving your opponent an opportunity to break back. And you only win when your opponent fails that opportunity.

If the poster above who said that serving first shows a long term advantage of 52% is correct, I have a few guesses why that would be:
1) Some psychological boost of winning the first game
2) Motivational boost of knowing you need to break back to survive after you've been broken (as opposed to getting broken at 5–6 and immediately losing)
3) The balls are slightly fresher. Balls are changed every nine games (after the first seven games since they also use them to warm up), and the older and fluffier they are, the slower they are, and the better it is for the returner. So if there are three ball changes during a match, and you get fresher balls twice, that's a tangible advantage.
somigosaden is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-02-2021, 11:10 PM   #6967
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 22,017
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

The biggest factor would be the pressure of serving second while 'behind' a game constantly. Same reason teams taking the first penalty in soccer win penalty shoot outs more often.

Would be interesting to see whether shooting first is an edge in the NHL or not over a big enough sample
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-03-2021, 02:23 PM   #6968
TomG
Pooh-Bah
 
TomG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: prop manager, crowdsource syndicate
Posts: 4,103
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

New exercise for the group. Many books offer a series wager for MLB teams. When teams play a four-game series, some books offer a two-way line with a 2-2 series tie being a push. Others offer a three-way line with a tied series being a betable option. Here is an actual scenario for today.

Two-Way
Tigers +271
White Sox -335

Three-Way Line
Tigers +750
White Sox -180
Tie +215

Where would you rather bet each side and why?
TomG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2021, 04:41 AM   #6969
DicedPineapples
centurion
 
Join Date: Jan 2020
Posts: 147
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

As a simplifying assumption, let's assume for now that every game has equal probability. If you bet $1 on Tigers, here's a plot of your EV versus the probability that tigers win a single game. I'll plot it from 0 to 0.5 since tigers are the clear underdogs.



The 3way EV is always greater than the 2way, so you would always prefer 3way Tigers over 2way Tigers at those odds.

Betting on White Sox is a bit more interesting since the EV lines cross each other.



There's no way White Sox are 80% though, they're like 65% based on vig-free odds. So realistically 2way White Sox is always better than 3way White Sox.

Last edited by DicedPineapples; 06-04-2021 at 04:58 AM.
DicedPineapples is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2021, 04:44 AM   #6970
DicedPineapples
centurion
 
Join Date: Jan 2020
Posts: 147
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Code
DicedPineapples is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2021, 05:19 AM   #6971
DicedPineapples
centurion
 
Join Date: Jan 2020
Posts: 147
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Now here's something interesting. If you bet $1 on white sox 2way and $1 on tie, what does your EV graph look like? (Orange line is just y=0, above it is +EV)



As long as W.Sox are between .57 and .69 to win a single game you're making a +EV bet between 0 and 4.5% ROI (under our extreme assumption that every game is equally likely). CWS were .68 today and .63 tomorrow based on vig-free odds.
DicedPineapples is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2021, 06:33 AM   #6972
DicedPineapples
centurion
 
Join Date: Jan 2020
Posts: 147
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Whoops had a bug in my code. Here's the fixed graphs. Same conclusions, 3way tigers > 2way tigers, 2way w.sox > 3way w.sox. For the $1 w.sox 2way and $1 on tie strategy, the corrected version actually makes the +EV window .52 to .67

Corrected Graphs
Corrected Code

$1 on 2way w.sox and $0.60 on tie looking pretty respectable though.
https://i.imgur.com/XXx0Juh.png

Last edited by DicedPineapples; 06-04-2021 at 06:47 AM.
DicedPineapples is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2021, 12:35 PM   #6973
TomG
Pooh-Bah
 
TomG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: prop manager, crowdsource syndicate
Posts: 4,103
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Nice job, you get a gold star. I like your approach since it looks at the EV for a range of possibilities.

Alternate solution
Spoiler:
TomG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2021, 02:43 PM   #6974
atrainpsu
old hand
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,808
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by somigosaden View Post
It shouldn't matter since you have to win by two, thereby giving your opponent an opportunity to break back. And you only win when your opponent fails that opportunity.

.
Intuitively, this made sense to me, but the math was telling me otherwise. But I guess the math is only suggesting that serving first makes you (slightly) more likely to win more games, but would be neutral for winning sets/Matches.

Looking at a simple example. If you win in straight sets with an early break in each set...

Serving first you would win 6-3, 6-4, 6-4

Serving second you would win 6-4, 6-4, 6-4.


I do find the 52% number interesting then, but I guess the psychology aspect makes sense.
atrainpsu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2021, 02:43 PM   #6975
DicedPineapples
centurion
 
Join Date: Jan 2020
Posts: 147
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Oh that’s a nice one
DicedPineapples is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:39 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive