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Old 04-27-2021, 03:56 AM   #6926
cockandbull
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

That's generally correct, the other main reason better players have more zeros is playing deeper in a tournament the players have better safety shots. Leading to less opportunities to make a pot, leading to another safety shot.
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Old 04-27-2021, 10:32 AM   #6927
PokerHero77
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Only the player who is at the table can concede a frame. This is one reason why you see players finish their break while far ahead and essentially impossible to lose the frame. It also works against the opponent to force them to sit watching the player build their break while the frame is hopelessly lost.

Players also get recognition for centuries, i.e. a 100+ point break. Most tournaments also have a cash award for highest break, and a bigger award for a 147 break.

I was watching Trump v. Heathcote in 2020 English Open, best of 7. Trump conceded a frame when he was down 35-52, with pink and black still on the table. I thought that was a bit odd, and put the match at 1-1. Trump went on to win 4-3.
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Old 04-27-2021, 04:40 PM   #6928
rabbitcoin
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by DicedPineapples View Post
I have no idea if this is a thing, but maybe we parameterize a distribution made of three parts. Bernoulli for zero/not zero. Uniform between 1 and 50ish. Cauchy for the rest. We use our one parameter to scale the different parts of this Frankenstein distribution like the bernoulli parameter, the range of the uniform, and the scale & center of cauchy.

To investigate this I started working on the first part, bernoulli for zero/not zero...
Cool, let us know how the hybrid-distribution experiments go.

I've started tinkering with a few ideas to try and forecast the snooker prop markets as well. If I have something ready in time I'll post some test plays for the semifinals and final matchups.
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Old 04-27-2021, 08:48 PM   #6929
nebraska123
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

x

Last edited by nebraska123; 04-27-2021 at 08:49 PM. Reason: wrong thread
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Old 04-28-2021, 04:46 PM   #6930
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

what do you know there's a snooker thread https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/4...2/index13.html
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Old 04-28-2021, 09:47 PM   #6931
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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what do you know there's a snooker thread https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/4...2/index13.html
Nice find, I never even thought to check under the Sporting Events section. Seems reasonably active too...
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Old 04-29-2021, 02:16 AM   #6932
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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I've started tinkering with a few ideas to try and forecast the snooker prop markets as well. If I have something ready in time I'll post some test plays for the semifinals and final matchups.
I haven't come as far as projecting snooker props yet, but the new model I'm experimenting with can at least spit out frame spread and total projections. Here's some test plays (This way, if my new assumptions are horribly wrong, I'll have plenty of time to reflect on why while watching these 2 best-of 33 frame semifinal matchups for the next few days, hah):

Bingham vs Selby fair ml +-135, Bingham +281
Bingham +4 frames -115
Bingham v Selby o29 frames -115

Wilson vs Murphy u29.5 frames +105
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Old 04-29-2021, 11:28 PM   #6933
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Trey Lance u6.5 -115, W, +1u
Najee Harris u30.5 -135, W, +1u
Penei Sewell o6.5 +100, W, +1u
Rashawn Slater u9.5 -115, L, -1.15u
Jaylen Waddel o11.5 -106, L, -1.06u
Kyle Pitts u5.5 -133, W, +1u
+1.79u

I also got Lance at #3 for +275 because of that other thread - good draft for knowing literally 0 going into it.
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Old 05-01-2021, 11:26 PM   #6934
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Originally Posted by rabbitcoin View Post
Bingham vs Selby fair ml +-135, Bingham +281, -1.00
Bingham +4 frames -115, +1.00
Bingham v Selby o29 frames -115, +1.00

Wilson vs Murphy u29.5 frames +105, +1.05
+2.05
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Old 05-02-2021, 11:10 PM   #6935
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Welp a dog finally cashed in BBB betting.

Gil was 6.0, +500 to go out, and he went out. The reason being is that this was the final exit before the final, and fans of Juliette decided to band together to vote him out, realizing he was her biggest threat to win in the final voting.

We should've seen it coming. Now Juliette should be a virtual lock in the final, expecting a -10,000 line on her. No value I think
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Old 05-03-2021, 09:10 AM   #6936
DuckMe
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Feels like such an odd year. Hard to pinpoint some things right now. I'm just glad I took Chase preseason +125 to be first WR and Najee to be first RB at one point when he dipped to plus odds.

I took a few last week that have all increased in odds.

- CB's O4 -175
- WR's O4.5 - 180

I actually took Chase U6 at -130 because while Pitts could come into play, the Bengals/Dolphins picks seems highly likely to be some combo of Penei/Chase. Feels like Pitts is the only one who could ruin that. Felt like Chase U6 at least pushes. I'm seeing Chase now at -225 to go U6, Penei -160 O5.5, Pitts -110 U5.5.

Jaycee Horn to be first defensive player has bounced around a little. +350 now. Had rose to +400. Not sure Parsons goes top 10 after sitting out a year. Surtain and Horn could each have suitors in the top 11.
Well, nailed basically everything here, even thinking Horn was the best value for first defensive player off the board.

I was fairly decent on Fields nearing his second Pro Day. Once it was "between Mac and Lance" (complete bullshit we have learned since, it was always Lance), I doubled down quite heavily on Lance at 3 when the odds were still plus and him U6.5 (worse-case scenario was him going 4 to Atlanta).

Still cannot believe the moron Chris Simms said his buddy Kyle was taking Mac Jones, and everybody just... ran with it. No critical thought to it. Just took something a guy we never listen to and went bananas over it. Over 50% of the handle was on Mac who at times was a heavy favorite. Only dime I bet on Mac was O3.5.

Too bad the NFL Draft is only once a year.
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Old 05-03-2021, 03:48 PM   #6937
twotoseven
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

https://fairlay.com/market/big-broth...sil-21-winner/

As expected, Juliette huge fave. No value but would lean betting Juliette still at -2777. Can't see any other result

Limit play of $150 on the other players, pretty small market. Still, we at crowdsource try to beat markets for the challenge, do we not?

Wow, just got captcha'd with voting. They didn't have this on previous votes. Perhaps there was some bots, manipulation? Or maybe just random
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Old 05-04-2021, 07:35 PM   #6938
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Seems like all of DefNotRigley's posts have been nuked.

The ultimate Usual Suspects disappearing act?
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Old 05-04-2021, 08:21 PM   #6939
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Maybe if we definitively solve snooker he'll come back
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Old 05-04-2021, 09:44 PM   #6940
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Datagolf finally got him. I dedicate datasnooker to his legacy.
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Old 05-04-2021, 09:55 PM   #6941
rabbitcoin
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

BTW do we know when and what the next Pro-level snooker event is?

Also, are there any Syndicate readers also based in the U.S. who are using the streaming/on-demand sports video service DAZN? Supposedly it has snooker so I'm curious how far back their on-demand snooker vids go so I have a better idea of what subscription length I should purchase for my needs.

Since flushing the frames-based Elo model down the toilet I've worked out two different methods to price the whole ball of wax: moneylines, spreads, totals, and props like Correct Score, Centuries over/under etc. Unfortunately, neither the Oddsportal or Cuetracker datasets have the information I need to properly backtest those methods, so I won't really know if my assumptions are total dog **** or not except to post and test the plays in real-time, old school Syndicate style. Looking forward to the future showdowns... gotta get that pizza and beer money somehow.
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Old 05-04-2021, 11:14 PM   #6942
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

No idea. A full score by score would be amazing. That gave me an idea. Could we model the score as a markov chain. I’ll play around with that. Def need to watch some snooker to understand how it works.

Last edited by DicedPineapples; 05-04-2021 at 11:23 PM.
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Old 05-04-2021, 11:57 PM   #6943
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

I'm in Canada, and subscribed to DAZN. Maybe it's different for Americans but my On Demand only goes back to the four Quarter Finals from the last tournament played.
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Old 05-05-2021, 12:50 AM   #6944
rabbitcoin
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by DicedPineapples View Post
A full score by score would be amazing.
I didn't notice it until a few weeks ago but, at the least, Bovada definitely has access to shot-level data: they let you view the shot-by-shot history per frame feed in their betting menu while a matchup is live. So at this point I think for a model to have a strong chance at beating that market long term, it will have to take a similar granular level approach as well. Whether that can be done effectively through an analytical approach such as simulating scoring distributions, or stochastically (Markov chains), or something else, I guess we'll have to figure out through trial and error unless we can get access to the same proprietary data feed the bookmakers are using.
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Old 05-05-2021, 12:55 AM   #6945
rabbitcoin
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Originally Posted by cobra_king View Post
I'm in Canada, and subscribed to DAZN. Maybe it's different for Americans but my On Demand only goes back to the four Quarter Finals from the last tournament played.
Okay thanks for the info. I guess I'll pass on paying for a subscription until the season gets busy again and there's a decent volume of matches to watch via live feed then.
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Old 05-05-2021, 01:07 AM   #6946
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Did they show x-y positions, or just scores like +1, +7, +1, miss... ?
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Old 05-05-2021, 01:14 AM   #6947
rabbitcoin
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

I didn't see any coordinate data, just shot-by-shot results similar to your latter suggestion.
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Old 05-05-2021, 01:15 AM   #6948
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting



Ran across this. Very generous of these people to offer $2-8 per hour. I wonder if this is how Bovada got their data.
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Old 05-05-2021, 01:28 AM   #6949
rabbitcoin
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Oh man, the "5 freelancers are bidding on average $5/hour for this job" part... lol

Although, I'm half-seriously considering contacting that poster to see if they have a decent sized collection of historical matchup vids they'd let the "shot data collector" keep...
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Old 05-05-2021, 03:23 AM   #6950
cockandbull
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense View Post
Seems like all of DefNotRigley's posts have been nuked.

The ultimate Usual Suspects disappearing act?
Change of username
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