That's a really convenient online tool to have, thanks for making and posting it.

that's not good because I took Etienne first RB at +200 and Najee o32.5 +175 draft position. I hope we both win somehow.

Paye also first D guy +700 but don't really think that will happen. It's based on Cowboys doing something stupid and not taking Surtain.

today
1-2 -2.35u on 6.53 risked
total
26-30 -6.78u on 80.10u risked

I've found edited video of some of the recent Snooker matchups by searching around YouTube. Anything else seems to require a paid subscription. I don't have a problem with paying to see some video in the interest of doing more research for the snooker model, but I figured I'd ask if anyone knows of a free resource for live or recorded snooker videos they would recommend?

All my projections for Tuesday are in line with the market, so I didn't find any plays. Here's what I have for the fair lines if anyone wants to do some line shopping though:
selt v donaldson +-105
zhou v highfield -+296
haotian v bingyu -+120
milkins v maflin -+105
jones v li -+104
dott v pengfei -+151
davis v clarke +-110
ning v liang +-131

it seems all streams are free here if you don't mind commentary in chinese

https://www.huya.com/880214?rso=baidusem

The line movements in this thing are fairly random and sporadic at this point, but is interesting to note that Kyle Pitts randomly went from U5.5 -110 to O5.5 -165

Interestingly, Chase remains a heavy favorite to go U6, but Penei is now plus odds to go top 5 (which doesn't rule out my scenario of Bengals-Chase, Dolphins-Penei, but still).

Fields -175 U4.5, Lance -120 O/U6.5. I have strongly felt this whole time the Mac Jones hype is just a media creation. Think there is at least a decent possibility we see 49ers-Fields, Falcons-Lance, Bengals-Chase/Penei, Dolphins-Penei/Chase

That works for me. I can watch the recordings no problem but they won't let me watch the live streams from the U.S., anybody have a VPN service recco?

I took a closer look at the bankroll growth from the wagering backtest of the current snooker model.


It's profitable betting both favorites and underdogs, but the favorites definitely get expensive when they lose.

The biggest single loss was -7.69 units when a -769 favorite underperformed, but the average loss size is -1.27 units compared to an average profit size of +1.43 units. The biggest single profit was +13.54 units when a +1354 underdog won. The longest streaks were 13 losses, and 17 wins in a row.

What I was really interested in was the size of some of the drawdowns.

The average drawdown size is about -10 units (median=-5.83), but the biggest drawdown was -54.63 units. I doubt I would have had enough faith to ride the model 54 units into the abyss if I hadn't seen that in any of the backtests up to that point. I'll also try some backtests with fractional Kelly to see what the growth looks like when I adjust sizing to limit the downside exposure.

In the meantime, anybody here have a war story where they ran into a 50 unit drawdown and made it out with their bankroll still alive?

Does anyone know/have any research into whether starters go as deep into games during these 7 inning doubleheaders or not?

I would imagine it’s team dependent and also how taxed the bullpen is. I doubt there is a meaningful sample size.

Has that's funny they do that, for something like this without consequence it real privacy concerns I'd just download a couple free ones until you get one that works

I love astrill for paid ones but that's mostly because their specialty is for people in China so they're currently ahead of the curve and adapting wherever it gets blocked

Cool, I'll check it out, thanks.

Snooker numbers for Wednesday 4/14:
day v walden +-122, walden -107
figueiredo v joyce +-184, joyce -157
xintong v vraigie -+153, no bet
brecel v bingham +-197, no bet
carter v ursenbach -+348, carter -240
wakelin v guodong +-251, guodong -186

today
3-1 +1.19u on 6.60u risked
total
29-31 -5.59u on 86.70u risked

snooker.org appears to have video links to youtube, but I can't access them. Maybe requires a paid subscription, or the videos were removed.

I also thought I had a resource to provide who breaks first in matches using scoreboard.com. The first 8 or so matches I cross-checked had the player breaking first. Then after checking more matches a few had the order reversed. Not sure how much that would help, but it would at least resolve who has the advantage in a frame.

Sounds like an interesting feature to try and incorporate. There's no matchups until Saturday but if you do come across a reliable resource for that data let's take a look at it.

big YIKES

What's even funnier about that is when they were first hiring traders over a year ago (and no I didn't apply), they mentioned in the job ad that people should read their book as part of the application process. What's sad is people still applied.

I guess it depends if it's just a keyboard monkey typing in whatever the software tells him the prices are, or not.

When FX e-trading first hit Wall St, those 'traders' weren't really making markets even though they had their own p/l book, they were just putting current prices on an all-electronic trading platform [20 years ago] that was used to being done via phone.

Here are the numbers for the Snooker Championship matchups on 4.17:
yan v gould -+230, yan -206
o'sullivan v joyce -+1958, no bet
maguire v jones, -+193, no bet
gilbert v wakelin -+206, no bet
robertson v liang -+300, no bet*

*Robertson is 13-0 against Liang, but considering the small sample size I think the market is assigning too much significance to their heads-up history and that Liang is probably the play here. Since I've recently paid several units for trying to be more clever than the market though, I'm going to sit this one out, observe, and try to make a more informed decision next time.

Snooker Championship numbers for the Sunday 4/18 matchups:
higgins v pengfei -+810, higgins -654
mcgill v walden +-101, no bet

I just watched the highlights from the first 8 frames of the Yan vs Gould match. I don't really understand what I'm looking at yet, but if nothing else I can see that Yan is focused and relaxed, but occasionally sloppy. Gould is very confident, but has occasional accuracy problems. Still, if that's how strong he played in his best of 19 matchup 2 weeks ago I can see why the closing line value was on Gould. If anyone has advice on snooker specific things to look out for when reviewing these videos, any feedback is appreciated.

It looks like there was a little closing line value on Liang, so maybe I wasn't totally stepping in the bs with my idea that the opening line had overvalued their head to head history. Either way I'm still going to pay close attention to those matchups where the model is several points off of the market consensus.

Snooker Championship numbers for the Monday 4/19 matchups:
wilson k v wilson g -+262, wilson g +281
ding v bingham -+103, no bet
lisowski v carter -+102, no bet

just want to do a shoutout to sigs for talking up single entry, normally loathe small slates but realized without the positions it's just pure projections without tradeoffs so actually much lower variance and a simple decision tree of risk vs ownership

so when yahoo added it i dove in headfirst and just been crushing it - even in sports like basketball where my edge in the multi game contests is pretty debateable