Fair enough. I think it's pretty cool that a trader has decided to participate in this conversation at all. It sounds like the whole snooker thing is under your radar anyway, but hope to continue the dialogue with you.

yeah I have zero to do with Snooker and while we do technically have a trader for it (who handles a much more important sport for us than that), he might actually only trade certain stuff for it like futures or bigger matches because ours odds for the one game I looked at came from a provider of us

sigs, we battling on Nola strikeouts again this year? 7.5 seems pretty high for OD.

Might just be that they get less square action on darts than snooker. After all, they're probably just copying Betfair or some UK book for both. Or maybe their trader for one is more junior than for the other.

In general, it seems like Bookmaker's limits and offerings on non-major sports have reduced. As recently as 4 years ago, they were taking 5k prop bets on Pro 12/14 rugby games. Now it's mostly $250 max on rugby straights and they usually don't offer props for anything less than 6 Nations and maybe the World Cup.

Good to know. I can't remember when I started using BM but probably wasn't more than 4 years ago.

Does anyone have a particular reason why they are NOT including last year's short MLB season game results in their run-scored-in-first-inning, RHE, etc charts?

Not a good start to Snooker this morning, (is today finally the day of the Magic8Ball revenge? hah), gotta leave for the day job in a bit but will update with results and more lines this evening.

on BM: Limits on run scored in 1st down to 250 from 500 last year.

Also no total bases props up as of now.

Shall we do a Run in First chart system? Anyone could post the plays since we're all working off the same chart.

Sure. I haven't seen any RIFI plays for today so far, but only took a quick look.

Can we repost The Chart so everyone can follow along? I lost mine in a boating accident (I just recently figured out saying that is a meme--it's hard for me to keep up with the memes these days. Based?).

Here's what I copied when sigley posted it... I think his original post is buried somewhere in the Syndicate annals with some other charts (final score odd/even etc):

Over 0.5 Runs in First

Total: 6.5 (n=456) Over: 139 -41.89 Under: -139 -58.11
Total: 7 (n=1341) Over: 110 -47.58 Under: -110 -52.42
Total: 7.5 (n=2233) Over: 106 -48.45 Under: -106 -51.55
Total: 8 (n=1852) Over: 101 -49.78 Under: -101 -50.22
Total: 8.5 (n=2378) Over: -107 -51.77 Under: 107 -48.23
Total: 9 (n=1803) Over: -118 -54.19 Under: 118 -45.81
Total: 9.5 (n=979) Over: -111 -52.6 Under: 111 -47.4
Total: 10 (n=404) Over: -138 -57.92 Under: 138 -42.08
Total: 10.5 (n=298) Over: -124 -55.37 Under: 124 -44.63

remember reading about the proud boys and the article mentioned "based stick man" and I honestly thought oh he must love roasting turkeys for holidays like thanksgiving

Losing your life savings gambling on snooker and video games is very based

Williams and Trump did us dirty this morning.

today:
-5.15u on 15.52 risked
total:
+0.99u on 34.45 risked

Here's what Elo has for tomorrow. Expecting Williams to get his **** back together:
williams v carter -+175, williams -137
wilson v dott -+212, wilson -166
higgins v wilson -+181, higgins -137
trump v williams -+220, no bet
higgins v carter -+120, carter +150
trump v dott -+392, trump -289
wilson v zhou -+130, no bet
dott v carter +-209, carter -137
williams v zhou -+178, williams -137

Did some backtesting with the pagerank model I have and I wasn't thrilled with the results, so I'm back in the lab and came across this paper "Predicting the NHL playoffs with PageRank" by Swanson, Koban and Brundage - which seems like exactly what I'm trying to do. The only issue is I dont have access to the full text and don't really want to pay for a subscription to the journal - does anyone have a pdf (or know a way to get it for free) of it?

Also, has anyone worked with the models mentioned at the end of the article? Specifically the Hunter one?

in the past i've found it's often quite easy to get their emails from the university websites and they'll often send a pdf upon request

Nola with 6 in 6, ez money.

I'm not familiar with Hunter's work with Bradley-Terry modeling specifically, but when I ran the snooker data through a Bradley-Terry model a week or so ago it did backtest with a positive ROI, just not as much as Elo.

Speaking of Elo, clearly it has performed pretty bad since yesterday. While asking myself if the ship has started to sink, I rank backtests with different lookback windows (excluding today's matchups) and had the following results.

recent 25 matchups:
n=24, accuracy=56% (market=56%), roi=-2.48%
recent 50 matchups:
n=45, accuracy=64% (market=54%), roi=+18.19%
recent 100 matchups:
n=82, accuracy=62% (market=49%), roi=+21.53%
recent 1000 matchups:
n=671, accuracy=65.4% (market=64.4%), roi=+10.72%
recent 10,000 matchups:
n=7,336, accuracy=66.88 (market=68.21), roi=+3.8%

In the recent 25 matchups, it isn't doing any worse than the closing lines at predicting winners, but isn't beating the juice either. J. Trump's recent performance alone has cost us several units. My take from the results above is that if we increase the sample size, the ROI should re-converge to a positive number, so I will continue using the current implementation of the model for now.

Perhaps I can contribute. I will look at recency weighting and trying different scoring mappings. I'll probably overfit a bit but it's worth a try.

I would not worry much over 30 or so bets. The fact it's beating fair value is something.

And you're correct about Trump. He is a bit of a mental case, but when he's on nobody can touch him.

Any input is appreciated. Let us know what you find.

today:
-3.92u on 11.03 risked
total:
-2.93u on 45.48 risked

I'll try and post the fair lines for the 4/05 matchups tonight.

Sorry noob question. Do I use a Poisson calculator this way, example:

https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/poisson.aspx

If I want to calculate an edge on "will player z get a hit" and I have a projection of 1.05 hits, can I just put 1 for "Poisson random variable (x)" and 1.05 for "Average rate of success" and my probability of player z getting a hit is "Cumulative probability: P(X >= 1)?"

Never mind, these mlb prop bets are not poisson because there isn't a large number of chances for them to occur, right? Individual player hits o/u 0.5, individual player runs+hits+rbi would not be poisson I'm guessing? But individual pitcher strike outs is poisson?

has enough time passed to label wiseman a bust

even coach of the year steve kerr gave up on him