Glasnow K o5.5 -114
Woodruff o5.5 -114
Syndergaard o6.5 -130
Eickhoff o4.5 +131 (BM)
Jon Gray o5.5 +102 (BM)
Lucchesi o6 +133 (BM)
McHugh o5.5 -112 (BM)

HRR:
Ozuna u2 -114
Conforto o2 -114
Peralta o2 -114
Bellinger o2 -114

disappointing lack of total bases matchups today and some books put up matchups for players on the IL such as betts v. meadows. i'll be in the lab for a few days working on RIF and other such props. good opportunity for others to step in and pick up the slack while i'm away.

Phi/Col No Run in 1st 5dimes +150

Y. Diaz > JD Martinez +124
Conforto > Goldschmidt -110
Arenado > Harper -105

Where's our disagreement on Harper? We are in line on cumfarto on a regular basis but in opposition on harper

TomG let's get 'em

Choo HRR +130 over Chirinios

TB from Bookmaker
Peralta -120 over Rizzo
Hoskins +110 over Story
Gallo +135 over Springer

K.Thompson points over 21½ +178

might actually hit this in the 1Q which would be nice to undo yesterday

TB: Suarez +100 over Machado (BM)
T. Mahle o4.5 -115 (BM)

Josh Donaldson HRR -115 over J. Kipnis

Max Fried o4 -130 (BM)
Bieber o5.5 -103 (BB)

Wow that 6th pitch to Franco was our 6th K for Gray. Dunno how they called that a ball and now he's likely to get pulled

what is happening

3 moderate sized winning days in K. Have we finally figured it out?

TB:
Conforto -110 over Goldschmidt WIN +1
Harper -120 over Arenado (can that bats be on point for 3 days in a row?) LOSS -1.2
Peralta -120 over Rizzo LOSS -1.2
Hoskins +110 over Story LOSS -1
Gallo +135 over Springer PUSH (Got 9th inning homered)
Suarez +100 over Machado (BM) WIN +1
Yesterday: 2-3-1 -1.4u
Total: 45-43-18 -1.17u

K:
Paxton o7 -120 WIN +1
Bundy o5 -114 LOSS -1.14
Gibson o5 -114 WIN +1
T. Richards o5 -114 WIN +1
J. Lopez o4.5 +124 (BM) WIN +1.24
R. Lopez o5 +105 (BM) WIN +1.05
Dereck Rodriguez o4 -114 PUSH
Woodruff o5.5 -114 WIN +1
Glasnow K o5.5 -114 LOSS -1.14 (pulled at 76 pitches, really?)
Syndergaard o6.5 -130 LOSS -1.3
McHugh o5.5 -112 (BM) LOSS -1.12 (blow up central)
Eickhoff o4.5 +131 (BM) WIN +1.31
T. Mahle o4.5 -115 (BM) WIN +1
Jon Gray o5.5 +102 (BM) LOSS -1
Lucchesi o6 +133 (BM) WIN +1.33
Bieber o5.5 -103 (BB) LOSS -1.03
Max Fried o4 -130 (BM) WIN +1
Yesterday: 10-6-1 +4.20u
Total: 127-113-23 +6.77u

HRR:
J. Villar HRR -105 over CJ Cron WIN +1
Abreu HRR -115 over Castellanos LOSS -1.15
Ozuna u2 -114 LOSS -1.14
Bellinger o2 -114 WIN +1
Polanco o2 -114 PUSH
Miguel Cabrera u2 -114 PUSH
Jose Abreu o2 -114 LOSS -1.14
Tim Andrson o2 -114 PUSH
Starlin Castro u1.5 -114 WIN +1
Niko Goodrum u2 -114 PUSH
Josh Bell u2 -114 LOSS -1.14
Conforto o2 -114 WIN +1
Merrifield HRR +130 over Voit WIN +1.3
Soler HRR +120 over Gardner LOSS -1
Peralta o2 -114 LOSS -1.14
Choo HRR +130 over Chirinios PUSH
Josh Donaldson HRR -115 over J. Kipnis WIN +1 (this one actually moved a lot against us, got it again from Jazz at +120 and +105 - guess we got lucky!) WIN +1
Yesterday: 6-6-5 -0.41
Total: 122-97-34 +14.93u

Dustin Johnson blew up again. For me this was ~21k swing across both days, so thank you.
Golf:
Dustin Johnson -0.5 +107 over Poulter Risk: 1.65u LOSS -1.65u (+6 on the back 9)
Cabrera Bello -0.5 +119 over Hoffman Risk: 0.64u WIN + 0.7616
Berger -0.5 +120 over Reavie Risk: 0.32u LOSS -0.32u
Horschel -0.5 +100 over Luke Donald Risk: 1.31u LOSS -1.31
Dahmen -0.5 +116 over Donald Risk: 1.44u WIN +1.6704u
Kokrak -0.5 +116 over Horschel Risk: 0.9u WIN +1.044u (still won by 6 stokes even with a triple bogey from Kokrak on the last hole)
Luke List -0.5 +110 over Graeme McDowell Risk: 0.45u WIN +0.495u
Yesterday: 4-3 +0.691 on 6.71u risked (10.3% ROI)
16-15 +1.6968u on 29.87u wagered (5.68% ROI)

3-0 TBs today YTD 27-26-14 -1.9. Did well on HRR but not including these as part of the official record

tom, how many years back are you gonna want to look for the runs scored data?

great question. it's definitely worth some thought and consideration. the way i like to think about it is to look at seasonal mlb scoring trends

https://www.baseball-reference.com/l.../MLB/bat.shtml

i'd want to be looking at overall R/G and the way those runs are being generated such as HR rate and the OBP to SLG relationship. notice any trends?

TB:
Gallo +105 over K. Davis (BM)
Springer -115 over Cruz (BM)
Soto -110 over Arenado (TG/5D/JAZZ)

CWS/BAL No Run 1st Inning (+115), 5D

MIN/HOU No Run 1st Inning (+115), 5D

Lot of overs again, but same issue. BB opened their K's 1/2 K below market
All -114 unless noted
Musgrove o5
Matz o5
Arrieta o4.5 -120 (BM)
Flaherty o6
Odorizzi o4
Minor o4.5
Happ o4.5 +110 (BM)
Peacock o5 -109 (BM)

BEtBuilder HRR:

All -114

Pujols u2
A. Simmons u2
Yelich o2
Peralta o1.5
D. Smight JR u2
JD Martinez o2
Soto o2
Trout o2
Castellanos o1.5
Alonso u2
Ramos u2
Moncada o2

What do the rest of the Crowdsource Family think about these

As much as I enjoy it, I wish you would all stop posting in this thread tbh

We crushed that D. Smith JR line tho, now it's u1.5 -130. Same with W. Ramos. Good job fam

If we don't correct the lines early then locals who copy them will post bad lines and might go bankrupt. Then their wives will leave them and they will be unable to see their kids.

It's a slippery slope

breaking news: commercial software developer wants you to stop using open source programs

I just tried to log into one of my JAZZ accounts and was locked out. Emailed to ask why and they said they don't want my business anymore and they enabled log in so I can cash out my balance and only that

I responded with this



Waiting for a reply currently

HRR H2H:
Carpenter -115 over Cain
Moustakas +100 over Ozuna
Villar -105 over T. Anderson
Realmuto +115 over Ramos
McCutchen +110 over Cano

How much do you guys value stole bases in HRR? I wonder if I'm overvaluing them and which is why I am always on guys like Villar. but if they get on base from a single or walk and steal, puts them right into scoring position

Plus they're also fast enough to score from 1st on hits others would not be able to.

why?

Probably because 10 minutes ago Realmuto was +115 over Ramos and now he's -155
Moustakas +100 to -140
Carpenter -115 to -140
McCutchen +110 to -135

even though those lines were static for over an hour before i posted them

and these line moves are on sites I can't even bet on that most locals copy their lines from

my goal is just for betbuilder to have ties no longer lose on total bases matchups if they change that i will never post in this thread again

still working on run in first model but i'm really bad at coding after not having done it in a while. so take heart people who are terrible at computers, you too can learn to code.

swings on Realmuto. Does a different (probably Private For Profit) Syndicate have Ramos?