theses are the ones i bet

Winning margin 3 7 10 points +250
Winning margin 3 7 10 14 points +196
Winning margin 3 7 10 14 17 points +140

sucks for valencia under steam and cska moscow steam

maybe you guys will get 'em next time

With your database do you have an edge on yes +120? From my math I showed no edge.

Found an even better way to hedge this one.

If you like the Lightning to get at least 4 goals like I do, then go ahead and take this bet at +110.

If the Lightning get to 5 goals tomorrow, then you can bet Bucs Total Touchdowns 6-or-more at +800.

0-1 -1.1
YTD 24-20 +2.2

Speaking of Euroleague, I said I would start posting again and due to the overwhelming amount of zero demand here they are. CBB is too time consuming for me since I do it by hand.

2/5 Euroleague
zenit +3.5
panath +8.5
bayern -7.5
lyon +5.5

i got +114 as fair

valencia blowing this is classic euro

So maybe BAS isn't reliable/sharp/whatever enough to use? Because I got +127.7 as fair using their dropdowns.

This was a good exercise in showing me not to use push charts that are just lying around.

This is awesome stuff! Opening my eyes to how in depth and analytical one has to be to find edges in this sports betting world. This is a good reality check for the casual bettor such as myself about just how much work goes into doing this for a profession. Big thanks!

BAS push freqs alone is a decent first order approximation, but I would consider historical data as well.

I wonder if TB being heavily favored to receive the opening kickoff has been incorporated into the 1H and 1Q lines.


Also interesting to see the variation in the "team to score first" market. Usually it seem pretty uniform across books with the favorite of the game being a small favorite to score first. This year I'm seeing everything from KC -130/TB +110 to KC -105/TB -125 across the multitude of books I've looked at. Seems like some are factoring one team being much more likely to receive and some are just using the full game odds like they normally do.

You get out at the top? Guessing at or near it...

Check any PPH you many have. Mine is KC +155 / TB -215 at the moment.

yea i'm not the idiot hold people who really think they're making the difference when it was obvious people with real money were gonna pump then dump it. i bought them all the week before as a YOLO

i was gone before they limited purchasing shares. i made about 7.6 pre tax. i was fine financially for the rest of my life before this and my bankroll is more but that's like 5 years of sports betting winnings in a week. can't top that.

due to it i decided to take a milly of it and throw it on the super bowl and currently at 700k on props! hoping to get a milly each for purposes. props were gonna be bet regardless at the volume. was gonna just throw 100k on tb +3.5 but figured why not live a little.

i couldn't just go in and put in 3.5 mil like mack tho. i had to spread it over 11 different books and 4 different people. so no THE ACTION NETWORK article incoming

i also have so many people getting the props. i've paid about 9k to them and the shits so disorganized. i don't know how much i have on anything at this point. and i have no plan to cash the winners without getting caught because i'm not syndicate like this.

what i paid people: 1% up to 50k they could get down. 2% above 50k

why pay? my ROI on props has been in the 8-9% range over many years. it seems like a profitable idea. one negative is so many of the props are correlated (since they're all based on the same model which is heavily on KC not being able to run and passing a million times) they could all bomb and it would take a full season to get this volume down again.

but what can you do.

i could also bet only one golf this week because i ran out of time and couldn't look at both. very sad state of events. my first missed PGA tour in many years. missed euro before because the event was trash but focused on that first this week and time just ran out.

Wait, what? On to score first?

As I recall, you trust no one and don’t collaborate. How did you find a team of people to fly to Colorado and spend a week betting sports? Seems like a fun project either way

I do have real life friends. We did it last year and was just gonna do it with them again but I figured why not and put a request out on Twitter and found a bunch of people. None of which murdered me

I posted on this earlier, I got fair value TB to score first -130, assuming they are certain to receive. I think that is a better play than 1Q, and def. better than 1H. (depending on odds of course) This is also a nice hedge if you bet KC for the game.

Also available:
1. TB to score first and lose: +350
2. TB to score first and win: +230

#1 probably has the best value but both offer nice hedge opportunities depending on which side you like.

Bodog has a prop of 3+ players with 1 + passing attempt at +400 and another line of 2.5 players with a passing attempt at +165 on the over. What am I miss here? Isn’t it the same thing?

3 is a push

Not the way it’s listed. There is no over/under.

Actually 3+ could be a loss if it landed on 3. Guessing it’s is one way prop

Additional derivatives assuming TB receives opening kickoff:

1. KC 3Q -0.5: +105
2. TB score TD in 1Q: +100
3. KC 1Q under 6.5: +115
4. TB 1Q over 6.5: -125
5. TB 1Q 3-way line: +190

Ya....idk what happened but I bet it right before I made that post. I saw your post and went and checked and that was the line. However, now it is aback to KC -120 / TB -110

I got KC +155 but it will probably get cancelled. My PPH is terrible. In the NFC championship game they had Fournette Rec Yards o/u 24 at -1150 / +495. BM was like -105 / -125 or something....slightly leaning under. Maxed it about 2 hours before kick but it got taken down like 10 min before the game. Then for SB they put up total punts by Butker at o/u 7.5 lol. Not the punter and the game punt total was 6.5 at the time. I maxed and it last weekend and it stayed up until Wednesday night. So who knows if my +155 will stay up but hope it does so I can eat my CLV when TB scores first

https://twitter.com/DaveMasonBOL/sta...511794691?s=20

Not sure if I should feel better or worse about the under after this, or if it's just irrelevant noise.

what do we think about gronk overs?

brate didn't practice today and is now questionable to play.

KC allowed the 6th most production to the TE Spot, Brady spreads it around, and looks to his TE's often. Seems square to take GRONK over but o30.5 and 2.5 receptions seems good. Not sure why the lines haven't moved since the announcement

Antonio Brown looks like he's going to be out too. That should help Scotty Miller, but can also help Gronk.