Another way to play it is TB to convert the first first down of the game at even money.

Just took that at -105 after being frustrated in not being able to find KC kicks off to start the game.

I cheated and used the wizard of odds push chart, which has the push percentages thusly

0 0.2%
1 3.7%
2 3.8%
3 14.5%
4 5.2%
5 3.4%
6 6.2%
7 9.2%
8 3.6%
9 1.7%
10 5.6%
11 2.5%
12 1.5%
13 2.9%
14 4.8%
15 1.5%
16 2.1%
17 3.1%

I'm guessing it's not exact since it doesn't take into account the total but close enough? According to this, chances of 3, 7, 10, or 14 is 34.1% and 3, 7, 10, 14, or 17 is 37.2% meaning value is on NO

You're only cheating yourself. It's a great exercise to pick a number and work through the percentages to see the difference between the market line vs. Wizard of Odds push sheet. Then we can get an idea of how accurate push charts that use old data (coaches going for it more on 4th down, extra point distances, etc) and don't factor in totals are from market data to help inform other betting decisions. Let's get started with the three...

Pinnacle
+3.5 -129 / -3.5 +116 ---> No vig of +3.5 -122 ---> TB Covers +3.5 54.9% of the time
+2.5 +118 / - 2.5 -131 ---> No vig of +2.5 +124 ---> TB Covers +2.5 44.7% of the time

So how does it compare? And wait, why isn't the no-vig line just the midpoint? And how did I calculate this? Great questions. Google searching for the formulas are fine and definitely work through calculating this in a spreadsheet. Do a good job and you won't even need to remember how to do it because it's now a formulated sheet in Excel. And if you don't know how to use Excel you can learn to become the handy Excel formula wiz in your office. Google Sheets is free if you don't have Excel.

The push frequencies you used above are aggregate averages. For example, a game in which the favorite is -11 will have a much lower frequency of 3 pt MOV than if the favorite were -3. You would need to look at results for the subset of -3 and -4 point favorites instead of aggregating all games.

Because you are considering multiple MOV the errors tend to cancel out, but the calc will still be off.

Using the total in the subset would help to some degree, but it reduces the sample size so it probably isn't that much of a help. Maybe go with totals above median, 46 and up, and do a sensitivity analysis vs. no total subset.

yea only reason i thought it was interesting is because i heard on some podcast with professional bettors that all they did was look at the history of the super bowl games and saw how many landed on 3, etc. then they got a line and pounded it

and i was like that don't make no sense. so i checked and yea it isn't even close to what they were betting.

and i think that's a big advantage in the betting world. while their podcast was going on live i noticed the line moving a lot in the direction they touted. so i was able to do some quick calculations and hop on the other side

btw i think we killed euroleague at BM. i went on an insane 17-1 run last month and now every game is -115 instead of -110

I tried to do it the real way before cheating but the pinny/BM point spread dropdowns don't even go to 7 for this game, unless I'm missing something, so I couldn't calculate 7, 10, 14, or 17

BetAnySports has a huge number of alternate spreads

puppy bowl MVP
male -130
female -110

puppy bowl winner
fluff +105
ruff -135

It seems like bovada fluffed up the juice on these bets a bit. DefNotRsigley, are you betting the puppy bowl again this year?

my puppy bowl source (aka some random guy who posted the puppy bowl on youtube and only got 5 views for some reason before it aired every year) posted this



so looks like no go. if he wasn't there then there's no videos.

if we can only go back to the time SBR posted that they knew the outcome was one side, when his videos showed the other side winning and we were able to get so many good bets in.

or the year we tried to help everyone but instead Thremp, HITS, and youtalkfunny were arguing about something random instead and derailed the thread

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/4.../#post51590926

Good point. I apologize because I just used my own model to calculate the %'s and assumed they would all have them. There are some props out there like "margin of victory is exactly 7". Avoid those. Most of them have too much juice. The BAS drop downs should be more efficient.

If I didn't have my own numbers I'd use BM/Pinny for as many as I can and then substitute in the rest with BAS. Maybe even compare the BAS % to the props offered of exactly 7 and see how close they are.

Either way there are a lot of live Superbowl prop shows and podcasts (e.g., the pros at Be Bettor Bettors) with massive audiences going on this week which are moving the props in the wrong direction (akak good direction for us). I don't have the timestamp from the Be Bettor podcast (if someone does please link) but I'd definitely check out the discussion about the prop which half has more points scored 1H or 2H. It really shows how you can be smart in one area but not in others. It's filtering down to in person books too. I am currently in Colorado with a gang working on these and the lines we want are getting better everyday!

How I feel with NHL. Now that I've mastered the faceoff I still can't pick a shots on goal winner to save TomG's life. That's what the hosts of BBB must feel like after that props discussion.

Thank you TomG, didn't think to check BAS even though I use it all the time.

BAS has -3.5 +110/+3.5 -130 --> +3.5 -118.69 no vig --> TB covers +3.5 54.27% of the time
BAS has -2.5 -140/+2.5 +120 --> +2.5 +128.34 no vig --> TB covers +2.5 43.79% of the time

Push percentage of 3 is 54.27%-43.79% = 10.48%

BAS has -7.5 +188/+7.5 -228 --> +7.5 -200.2 no vig --> TB covers +7.5 66.69% of the time
BAS has -6.5 +150/+6.5 -170 --> +6.5 -157.4 no vig --> TB covers +6.5 61.15% of the time

Push percentage of 7 is 66.69%-61.15% = 5.54%

BAS has -10.5 +270/+10.5 -330 --> +10.5 -283.94 no vig --> TB covers +10.5 73.95% of the time
BAS has -9.5 +212/+9.5 -252 --> +9.5 -223.37 no vig --> TB covers +9.5 69.08% of the time

Push percentage of 10 is 73.95%-69.08% = 4.87%

BAS has -14.5 +414/+14.5 -522 --> +14.5 -431.24 no vig --> TB covers +14.5 81.18% of the time
BAS has -13.5 +332/+13.5 -413 --> +13.5 -347.78 no vig --> TB covers +13.5 77.67% of the time

Push percentage of 14 is 81.18%-77.67% = 3.51%

BAS has -17.5 +525/+17.5 -750 --> +17.5 -551.5 no vig --> TB covers +17.5 84.65% of the time
BAS has -16.5 +460/+16.5 -620 --> +16.5 -482.14 no vig --> TB covers +16.5 82.82% of the time

Push percentage of 17 is 84.65%-82.82% = 1.83%

So according to what I've just done, that is hopefully correct, the odds of the final score differential landing on 3, 7, 10, 14, or 17 is 10.48%+5.54%+4.87%+3.51%+1.83% = 26.23%

That's really funny. I obviously missed out on a lot the last 10 years I stopped visiting this board, which I now greatly regret. I have a feeling that if I had stuck on here I would be a much more informed sports bettor.

When I first came on these boards I didn't really know what I was doing, ran ridiculously hot betting MLB and NFL and I actually pm'ed Thremp at one point because I felt like such a god and wanted him to take me under his wing a bit. He was impressed by the amount of money I had won in the short amount of time I had done so and said yeah we can do something, but I promise you this isn't a brag. It was all luck. I donked it all away in probably a month or two and I think I stopped coming here after that lol.

Appreciate your work here and the crowdsource/nhl props page.

Did you bet Senators-Oilers Gaetan Haas o0.5 SoG by any chance?
https://www.golfdigest.com/story/gae...dmonton-oilers

also i slandered the wrong podcast i'm sorry

I meant "Bet the Process" not better bettors or whatever

A couple derivatives of the receive kickoff bet:

-BUCS SCORE 1ST & LOSE GAME: +350
-BUCS TO SCORE FIRST: EV*

*- nice hedge if you bet KC

Wait, do I have to do the same thing for KC now for each number?

Low limit BOL cross-sport prop, but it might be available elsewhere.

Total cards in Juve vs Roma -200 vs Total Super Bowl field goals

Pinny has bookings as a fair price of o5 -151 and FGs as u3.5 -139

If we assume Poisson on each (I think that should be a fine assumption to ballpark it) we're at a mean bookings of ~5.69 and a mean FGs of ~3.3.

That gives us an fair price of -272 and a massive edge at -200.

*Edit* Actually, this was calced for bookings to win outright. The actual edge should be much, much bigger.

I think you could technically wait until the soccer game is in play before betting on this but what's the fun in that? It plays on Saturday and the wager looks like it's on the board until Sunday. Even if you can wait, I wouldn't want to chance in-game line movements stealing the value away when there's plenty of value as-is.

I get the feeling I left out a big part. Am I supposed to do the same thing for KC now, e.g. how often KC covers +3.5 and +2.5, +7.5 and +6.5, etc. and then add that to the push probs I got already?

I believe it's two-sided so you need the odds that the game falls on 3 not just KC winning by 3.

is KC covering -3 different than KC covering +3? yes and both are ways the 3 pushes

17-20 is diff than 20-17

I had another Cross-Sport Prop that caught my eye that I am basically guessing is good value, but maybe somebody with more women's tennis knowledge can help me.

Cross-Sport Props
What will be higher
53053 Chris Goodwin Receptions -175 (typo on the site as Goodwin..)
53054 Americans Advancing to 2nd Round in Women's AO +135

Godwin's O/U for catches is 5.5 at -130, to hit at least 5 receptions is -500.

Having a hard-time gathering exactly how many American Women will be in the 2021 Australian Open, but I can find that only four US women are seeded (top 32). Madison Keys is also out due to COVID, and she's the third-highest ranked US player in the world.

Again, somebody here has to have more women's tennis knowledge than I do. Would seem to be at -175 for Godwin, we're getting nice value on basically on Over 5.

One more popping to my attention now:

Cross-Sport Props
What will be higher
53069 Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD's -150
53070 Tampa Bay Lightning Goals on Feb 5th +110

Lightning play the Red Wings tomorrow night after beating them 5-1 last night. Worst team in hockey vs the best. Detroit has a few low-scoring affairs, but hard to think the Lightning aren't getting to 4 tomorrow. Bucs Team Total sits at 27 -120.

If you like the Bucs in this bet, then probably should be pounding that TT number.

TB -3.5 +237/KC +3.5 -277 --> TB -3.5 +247.66 --> TB covers -3.5 28.76% of the time
TB -2.5+165/KC +2.5 -190 --> TB -2.5 +173.61 --> TB covers -2.5 36.55% of the time

TB wins by 3 7.79% of the time and loses by 3 10.48% of the time, so push prob of 3 is 7.79%+10.48% = 18.27%

TB -7.5 +394/KC+7.5 -494 --> TB -7.5 +410.92 --> TB covers -7.5 19.57% of the time
TB -6.5 +307/KC +6.5 -367 --> TB -6.5 +319.86 --> TB covers -6.5 23.82% of the time

TB wins by 7 4.25% of the time and loses by 7 5.54% of the time, so push prob of 7 is 4.25%+5.54% = 9.79%

TB -10.5 +521/KC +10.5 -741 --> TB -10.5 +547.27 --> TB covers -10.5 15.45% of the time
TB -9.5 +443/KC +9.5 -585 --> TB -9.5 +463.63 --> TB covers -9.5 17.74% of the time

TB wins by 10 2.29% of the time and loses by 10 4.87% of the time, so push prob of 10 is 2.29%+4.87% = 7.16%

TB -14.5 +842/KC +14.5 -1292 --> TB -14.5 +874.01 --> TB covers -14.5 10.27% of the time
TB -13.5 +667/KC +13.5 -1033 --> TB -13.5 +699.16 --> TB covers -13.5 12.51% of the time

TB wins by 14 2.24% of the time and loses by 14 3.51% of the time, so push prob of 14 is 2.24%+3.51% = 5.75%

TB -17.5 +1188/KC +17.5 -1875 --> TB -17.5 +1223.45 --> TB covers -17.5 7.56% of the time
TB -16.5 +1022/KC +16.5 -1543 --> TB -16.5 +1053.98 --> TB covers -16.5 8.67% of the time

TB wins by 17 1.11% of the time and loses by 17 1.83% of the time, so push prob of 17 is 1.11%+1.83% = 2.94%

Odds of the score differential landing on 3, 7, 10, 14, or 17 is 18.27%+9.79%+7.16%+5.75%+2.94% = 43.91% or fair odds of +127.74, which would be no edge based on the odds rsigley posted initially. Did I do something else wrong?

Looks good to me, but the 3 & 7 push frequencies look a bit high to me fwiw.