Quote:
Originally Posted by qotd
Low limit BOL cross-sport prop, but it might be available elsewhere.
Total cards in Juve vs Roma -200 vs Total Super Bowl field goals
Pinny has bookings as a fair price of o5 -151 and FGs as u3.5 -139
If we assume Poisson on each (I think that should be a fine assumption to ballpark it) we're at a mean bookings of ~5.69 and a mean FGs of ~3.3.
That gives us an fair price of -272 and a massive edge at -200.
*Edit* Actually, this was calced for bookings to win outright. The actual edge should be much, much bigger.
I think you could technically wait until the soccer game is in play before betting on this but what's the fun in that? It plays on Saturday and the wager looks like it's on the board until Sunday. Even if you can wait, I wouldn't want to chance in-game line movements stealing the value away when there's plenty of value as-is.
I had another Cross-Sport Prop that caught my eye that I am basically guessing is good value, but maybe somebody with more women's tennis knowledge can help me.
Cross-Sport Props
What will be higher
53053 Chris Goodwin Receptions -175 (typo on the site as Goodwin..)
53054 Americans Advancing to 2nd Round in Women's AO +135
Godwin's O/U for catches is 5.5 at -130, to hit at least 5 receptions is -500.
Having a hard-time gathering exactly how many American Women will be in the 2021 Australian Open, but I can find that only four US women are seeded (top 32). Madison Keys is also out due to COVID, and she's the third-highest ranked US player in the world.
Again, somebody here has to have more women's tennis knowledge than I do. Would seem to be at -175 for Godwin, we're getting nice value on basically on Over 5.