Bovada has TB most rushing yards -110. BM has TB most rushing yards -14.5 +122 no vig

4-1 +2.9
YTD 4-1 +2.9

2/1 CBB
Sacramento State +9

Will add more

Sorry for so many posts but I got a late start and want to post these before the games start. After this post I'll have the rest in a lump

SIU Edwardsville +7
Long Island -6 (I don't know where this line went I don't see it on any of my sportsbooks but just carrying it over from yesterday)

2/1
wofford -2
SE Missouri St +7.5
missouri st +8.5
alabama a&m +9.5
grambling -25
alabama st +16.5

Wall street bets logic. If he's in, then I'm in.

What's the logic tho? Tried googling but didn't see anything in the first few pages

Basically that if the Chiefs win the coin toss, they will defer. If the Bucs win the coin toss, they will choose to receive.

Chiefs are -2500 to defer if they win the coin toss, Bucs are -200 Defer/+150 Receive.

I don't see the Chiefs to receive opening kickoff myself, so I've only sprinkled on the +150 to receive.


Tempted to eat the juice on Patrick Mahomes headband color red at -400. Wore red in the AFC title game, red in the Super Bowl last year. Red jerseys each time, as will be on Sunday. Seems like he occasionally sports black with the red jerseys, but is he going to mess with what worked in the AFC Title or last year's Super Bowl? Guy is a former baseball player and son of a MLBer so he should know all about not messing with stuff like that.

And FYI, the Ayton Rebs+Assists vs. Mahomes Rushing Yards is now at +180 for Ayton.

Additionally, now just realizing that game as at 1 PM CST and Super Bowl isn't until 5:30. Can see how Ayton plays and possibly hedge against it before kick-off.

Guys let's hammer Minnesota Wild to Win Opening Faceoff today. I'll make some videos about how Mackinnon is horrible at faceoffs and call it The Mackinnon Theorem to make it sound scientific. Then we'll all pile on because fk the bookmakers who take all our money. We'll create some witty memes to root each other on. Who cares if it's -400 odds now and that Ek is nearly as bad as Mackinnon.

After writing this I Just saw Mackinnon will be out tonight with lower-body injury so let's hold off.

You guys are fast at these faceoffs. Soon this market will be bots competing to front run each other just like HFT firms on wall street. The government will have to step in to regulate this market, and Michael Lewis will have to write a second Flash Boys book about us.

Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense
sigley/anyone, over the last 15 years, what are the odds a game lined at -3 landed on -3?

Believe I took Anthem Over 1 Minute and 57 Seconds as soon as it came out (ticket shows 1/19) and it was +135 then.

I am seeing -110 Over, -130 Under now.

Has any insight been provided into this by anybody yet?

Dress rehearsal is usually Wednesdayish so someone will probably leak info and lines will move.

Source: I’ve had a friend on scene stop watch it before

I have boatloads on under 2min 2.5 secs at -118

Based on previous renditions the correct line is like 1:50, the only way this ends up in an over is if they do some outside the box rendition. If we get what should roughly be expected in terms of how they do it, it's going to be under 2mins and it won't be close

It's not as obvious of a valuebet as last year though when Demi's line was obviously wrong by like 15 secs. Now there's the guitar dude who could theoretically do some solos or whatever to really drag it. But betting on the over is a terrible play unless we get new info from the rehearsals. Probably fine to wait until then, last year Demi clocked the rehearsal like 16 seconds below the line yet the line actually moved in the opposite direction late in the SB week. Fish will hammer the over anyway so there probably won't be any rush to bet the under. I suffer from medium strength fomo so I just went for it already

The two previous renditions by Sullivan were both less than 1:45. In one of them she had a country guitar dude similar to this year's show and it lasted 1:44. So the basic expectation should be that anthem will be ~this + a few secs of random guitar trickery and longer notes. But I don't know how they are going to add 16 seconds to that to make it even 2 mins?

NHL/SB crossover props I like:

Leonard Fournette Pass Receptions-105 vs Alex Ovechkin Total SoG
Total Interceptions-110 vs Nathan MacKinnon Total Points
Mahomes Passing TDs-130 vs Canucks team total goals vs Toronto on Feb 6th

Rehearsal does not guarantee results.

Anyone remember Gladys Knight? Her rehearsal was pretty much right on the line so it was a no bet for me, but then she did this, which made it either under or over the number depending on how books interpreted their rules.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/...u1r8f693wii8bo

Weeknd props went OTB at some books earlier this PM, trying to find set-list/outfit leak information but nothing yet..

someone said the first song is starboy and last blinding light on twitter and they got hammered.

no idea if it's true but i'm assuming that was the cause

Only song prop I am seeing right now is
The Weeknd’s Final Song Will be
54048 Original -500
54047 Cover +300


Also, the 'No' on 'Any Scoring Drive Less Time Than Anthem Length' is +225. If you think she easily hits the under, then probably decent value in that. Most common reason for hitting this wouldn't even be big plays from taking a quick look, but mainly turnovers that lead to short field position.

Nitrogen sports apparently limiting total amount of prop bet wagers to .025 or something like that? Dumb.

Only Ovie one I see for SOG is vs Mahomes Passing TD and Patty is +140

Canucks scoring about 3.5 per game, Toronto giving up 2.9 per. Those two play tomorrow, so it might be a good baseline to use. If you expect Mahomes to get at least 3 TD's, and banking on the Canucks to get 3 or less, it's not bad compared to laying -167 on Mahomes O2.5 Passing TDs.


Game O/U is 56. Biden approval rating seems to be settling between 52-53 (makes sense given his popular vote count). Biden is +110 to have higher approval rating than the total. I guess whichever you like between the O/U, you could get more value out of taking this bet. Game total is -150 and it costs -146 to buy down to 54, so you're essentially getting a free buydown to O53. Not sure if anybody has an alt line of U53/52; I am seeing U49.5 +230.

I actually ended up changing my mind on the Mahomes TD pass bet after working through it some more, I think both the nucks TT and Mahomes TD pass are both around 2.5 over-150. The other 2 I wagered on.

here's an interesting prop

Winning margin 3, 7, 10, 14

and

Winning margin 3, 7, 10, 14, 17

You can use the drop box calculator on Pinnacle or other sites to get the push percentage for those numbers based on the spread and total.

By doing so you'll see a edge on the current line of Yes +120/No -140

Which side? Can you figure it out?

T.Brady & P.Mahomes 300+ Pass Yds Each, L.Fournette 70+ Rush Yds, T.Kelce, M.Evans & T.Hill 70+ Rec Yds Each (+3300)

Seems like great value to me. What do you guys think?

Another way to bet the KC to kick-off prop if you don't have it:

QB to be mentioned 1st After Kickoff:
Tom Brady -140
Patrick Mahomes +100


If Tompa takes the field first on offense, have a hard time thinking they say Mahomes before Brady unless Nantz pulls a "Mahomes will start the game on the bench as he watches Brady come onto the field."


Chiefs number of players to have a rushing attempt O/U is 4.5. It's +120 to the under which I think is decent value. CEH, Darrel, Mahomes, and Tyreek probably all register at least one carry. Does Mecole get mixed in? Kelce play some Wildcat snaps as we've seen before? Le'Veon or Darwin going to be active and get any run? I understand the over being favored, but seems like a lot if's you're banking on.

Granted, last real game the Chiefs had with all their guys active is arguably the Saints game, and six guys got carries that game.