The backend is more verbose than just [team] [fair line] so I can spot the issue pretty easily. In honor of DNRS stepping down from the Syndicate, the bot remained silent today.

Someone made 250ish plus after putting in 30m on 200 strike calls and there may be some even bigger whales out there.

I hope he goes for my NBA Top Shot idea.

Bet bad, got there on $dds. It's been something.

Poisson works fairly well for this. It's a great exercise to work out how to back into the market-implied mean and use that to value half points. Here's the formula in Excel to get you started...

Density Cumulative
1 =POISSON(1, mean, FALSE) =POISSON(1, mean, TRUE)
.
.
.
30 =POISSON(30, mean, FALSE) =POISSON(30, mean, TRUE)

Congrats rsigley but call me skeptical he's really done. He's already retired a half dozen times, he's had retirement money for years, and continues to come out of retirement because what else is there to do? We're ready for you when you return.

Can't wait to see the exit trade execution if this is true. Plummeting AH.

Read the first three words and immediately realized you're discussing faceoff bets on CRIS. No further reading needed.

Sold all my DDS and PLTR this morning, was a fun ride.

Ha! Good luck today to all our faceoffs traders.

I haven't made anything on these stonks but it's been fun watching and congrats to anyone who yolo'ed

Has the team SOG prop been solved? Was thinking about taking a crack at it. Anyone know of outs that consistently offer the prop?

Most books offer Goalie Total Saves which is basically just opposing Team Total SOGs less goals scored. We can back into market-implied goals scored for each team so yes we can do it. Great sanity / systemic bias check for any SOG model as well.

Never met or talked to HERO, but from what I've read ITT from him I think he is more likely to have used options than just bought those stocks.

The book has a chapter on Superbowl props, looking forward to some posts about these.

Although not in line with book's recommendations, I am going out on a limb to speculate that TheWeeknd will drive from the commercial to the stage just like in the commercial:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbi...77948cacee7b70

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LGwIc0qoZ7E

Amount: $25.00 To win: $25.00 Will The Weeknd First be Seen with Sunglasses - No +100
Amount: $10.00 To win: $18.00 The Weeknd 1st Song Performed at Halftime - Blinding Lights +180
Amount: $25.00 To win: $27.50 Super Bowl - Halftime Specials - Color of The Weeknd’s Jacket When First Seen - Black +110
Amount: $50.00 To win: $25.00 The Weeknd First be Seen with Gloves on Hands - Yes -200

Back to the grind, enjoy your weekend all.

Not sure I feel comfortable asking this until I've contributed more (working on it), but is there a way to view what the bot spits out?

Yes, just send me a PM with your number and you can get the texts too

sigley/anyone, over the last 15 years, what are the odds a game lined at -3 landed on -3?

Yet another great exercise! In this lesson, you will learn how to calc no-vig lines, how to convert American Odds to percentages, and how to work with a discrete distribution's probability mass function. While I know most people here are doing these exercises already and don't respond because they don't want to ruin other's opportunities to learn, it's OK to submit your work here if it's behind a spoiler tag. Pinnacle/Bookmaker/BetAnySports dropdowns are all accepted as market proxies.

Gonna take a crack at CBB, posting here to track.

1/31

Colgate -14.5
Long Island -6 (whoops this is 2/1 so hold that thought)

Rest of 1/31
s. illinois +2.5
northwestern +4
riverside -7.5
washington st +2

Trying to find just value on some of the random props and come across a few.

Longest Punt Tampa Bay -115

- They are both listed -115 despite the Bucs being -105 to have O53.5 yard punt and the Chiefs being +105. Bucs have the better punter anyways and if you agree the Chiefs are the favorites, hypothetically should mean Bucs punt more often and thus more chances as well for a longer punt.

What will be higher - Deandre Ayton Rebounds+Blocks on Feb 7th +160 vs. Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards

- Ayton is a stud on the glass, Celtics are bottom 10 in rebounds allowed per game. Mahomes rushing O/U is up to 21.5, he has the toe injury and the Bucs have been quite good at limiting QB rushing this year. Feels like a flip of the coin bet in reality so happy to take Ayton as a decent dog.

Tom Brady O0.5 Rushing Yards +110

- Yolo kind of bet. Brady has negative rushing yards in seven games compared to five games with positive results this year, leaving seven games with no rushing yardage. TB12 is known a bit as a QB Sneak savant, so maybe we get one of those in this contest.

I also like Brady rush yds o0.5 but betanysports has +175. So far I took

Brady rush yds o0.5 +175 (BAS)
Brady no int +130 (BAS)
KC rush yards u95.5 -105 (betonline) [BM has u78.5 +144 no vig and adding up the individual player prop totals for KC doesn't come close to 95.5]

sorry will catch up. in colorado now for super bowl props + deck PRISM live

if anyone in CO lets get some food. i'm in blackhawk at airbnb

one prop i've seen in a lot of places that i'm ready to lose tons on

"kc kicks off to start the game". got tons at -115, -125, -130, -135

why?

kc always defers, tb almost always receives

ariens is on the record saying he wants the ball first to set the tone for his offense and score early

he's one of the few coaches who doesn't defer.

so i'm guessing 99% he kicks off to start the game

Been lurking a few weeks. Profitable prop bettor and have mostly given it up because my outs don't appreciate this kind of business. Couldn't resist the superbowl. IDP model is new but looks promising. Have found a decent bit of value on the below bets in a lot of different places:

Hitchens u6.5 Tackles and Assists -- Fair line -137
Breeland u4.5 TA --- Fair -192
Suh u3.5 TA -- Fair -222
Whitehead u4.5 TA -- Fair -162
White u10.5 TA -- Fair -204
White Interception Yes -- Fair +1860
Murphy Bunting Int Yes-- Fair +521
Jamel Dean INT Yes -- Fair +986