Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting - Page 256 - Sports Betting

I've added it to my reading list, as it looks worth reading. Although if Feustel needed a refresher on linear algebra while reading it, I'm definitely going to need a refresher too.

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01-24-2021 , 02:32 PM

#6377

NajdorfDefense

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 17,563

I don't know what's funnier, people past-posting on DK, or DK paying them out. Maybe they need DeckPrizm sports?

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01-24-2021 , 03:12 PM

#6378

cobra_king

stranger

Join Date: Jan 2021 Posts: 4

Quote:

Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley

Something else too. I may be too narrowly defining the neutral zone.

I'm just including the direct center not the 4 other spots. I was assuming being closer to the wall would factor in?

Lets book a cameo from some NHL players and ask them to explain this to us

I'm not Tyler as he's to busy playing in these games to help out, but as someone who has played the game at middling levels in my life, I can answer some of these questions.

Any faceoff in the neutral zone, whether it's at the center ice face off circle or any of the four dots is considered a neutral zone face off.

In the attacking/defensive zone there is a difference on which side of the ice a face off is taken as a defensive player won't want to draw the puck back towards his own net (always try to win the draw into the corner), but in the neutral zone this isn't an issue so being near the boards wouldn't be a factor at all.

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01-24-2021 , 08:14 PM

#6379

DicedPineapples

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2020 Posts: 152

Yo sigs is there any nice intuition for why the Bayesian log5 paper puts a prior on the mean of the prior of beta. What would motivate someone to do this the prior-ception?

Why not just say B ~ Normal((1,1,-1), ...)?

I'm going to play around with it in pymc3 once I'm done fighting to make it work on windows.

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01-24-2021 , 09:30 PM

#6380

NajdorfDefense

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 17,563

MGM having a rough time of it, offered u345.5 pass TDs by Mahomes at halftime. Where is DeckPrizm when you need them.

Quote

01-25-2021 , 12:08 AM

#6381

rabbitcoin

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2021 Posts: 243

Quote:

Originally Posted by DicedPineapples

I'm going to play around with it in pymc3 once I'm done fighting to make it work on windows.

If you have a Python script for calculating the prediction interval of a non-linear ensemble model's output (that you are willing to share), please let me know. Would like to figure out what the interval is for my darts model.

I found this:
https://machinelearningmastery.com/p...hine-learning/
and was led to this:
https://rdrr.io/cran/randomUniformForest/man/bCI.html

Which I'll read carefully in the morning, as I'll need to be more awake to try and figure out the R code. I guess I'll try stack exchange too.

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01-25-2021 , 12:57 AM

#6382

DicedPineapples

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2020 Posts: 152

Never done an ensemble model, is that when you Bukkake a bunch of models together? Sounds fun.

Quote

01-25-2021 , 11:33 AM

#6383

rabbitcoin

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2021 Posts: 243

Hah yeah one could try mixing a bunch of models from scikit-learn together and see if they get lucky. I’ve found decent results when I combine say models A,B, and C because I know that model A performs well against error metric X, model B well against error metric Y and so on.

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01-26-2021 , 10:13 PM

#6384

DicedPineapples

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2020 Posts: 152

Thank you to whoever bet ducks over coyotes face off. I misread the report and was about to bet coyotes, but my hero bet ducks 1 millisecond before me and bet rejected due to line move. I feel like I'm high frequency trading with this bet.

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01-26-2021 , 10:19 PM

#6385

DicedPineapples

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2020 Posts: 152

And coyotes end up winning. Bad beat for everyone involved.

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01-26-2021 , 10:23 PM

#6386

fourthand26123

stranger

Join Date: Nov 2020 Posts: 5

Were the flyers and preds face off bets for anyone else tonight?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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01-27-2021 , 01:49 AM

#6387

Fubster

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 8,949

a little run good for me, didn't update the team and got the faceoff wrong.

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01-27-2021 , 01:34 PM

#6388

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

after missing out on the bitcoin craze i've now made more money than i could ever count or spend YOLO'ing gamestop and amc

betting 300k on a golf card doesn't have any meaning anymore

its been real guys. i can't feel anything anymore money related.

i'll make public all my data and databases. i have no use for them anymore.

also i'm not sure why they used that. i emailed the authors back then and they never replied. i didn't use what they had.

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01-27-2021 , 01:52 PM

#6389

Fubster

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 8,949

Do you still plan on your card counting adventure once the deep state deletes COVID?

Quote

01-27-2021 , 02:01 PM

#6390

BadBeatBodog

grinder

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 410

Fubster has made a very good point and I must publicly flog myself for making a PM related to crowdsource business. I apologize to fubster and the forum. My intentions were pure and I ask for mercy at the hands of the tribunal.

Edit: for full transparency, the question I asked was if there was a mistake with the plays

Last edited by BadBeatBodog; 01-27-2021 at 02:14 PM. Reason: Added edit

Quote

01-27-2021 , 02:41 PM

#6391

DuckMe

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2019 Posts: 124

Quote:

Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley

When did you buy-in? Still holding each?

Quote

01-27-2021 , 02:50 PM

#6392

BadBeatBodog

grinder

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 410

Suddenly, buying a country isn't just a meme for rsigley

Quote

01-27-2021 , 03:21 PM

#6393

Fubster

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 8,949

Quote:

Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog

Yes there was, I had not properly updated my player trade info so a wrong side was sent. We fortunately donked it however. This error has since been corrected.

Quote

01-27-2021 , 04:02 PM

#6394

BadBeatBodog

grinder

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 410

How many business ideas is rsigley getting PM's about right now lol

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01-27-2021 , 04:15 PM

#6395

DuckMe

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2019 Posts: 124

Quote:

Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog

How many business ideas is rsigley getting PM's about right now lol

Certainly possible lol. I was intrigued by his entry and position and asked publicly. He is by no means inclined to answer us, just was curious and wanted to ask.

I'll miss the man and regret not going bigger on his Colts +7 against the Bills.

Quote

01-27-2021 , 04:18 PM

#6396

BadBeatBodog

grinder

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 410

Quote:

Originally Posted by DuckMe

I think your question was fair. I wanted to ask him straight up how much he made so I'm clearly not well in the head. Never forget Colts +7.

Don't quote this if you made over $100million.

Quote

01-27-2021 , 04:28 PM

#6397

LasFuentes

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 1,889

Quote:

Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley

rsig, over/under on this guy from wallstreetbets' position?

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetb...e_jan_26_2021/

edit: that's from yest, so more than doubled in value.

Last edited by LasFuentes; 01-27-2021 at 04:37 PM.

Quote

01-27-2021 , 05:05 PM

#6398

DuckMe

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2019 Posts: 124

Quote:

Originally Posted by LasFuentes

rsig, over/under on this guy from wallstreetbets' position?

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetb...e_jan_26_2021/

edit: that's from yest, so more than doubled in value.

DFV was the original, so I don't know if anybody made more than him. He was in big when it was below $5. Only way to top him is if you still got in below $100 at insane volume.

If we guess rsigs pulled off like, investing his Colts winnings at Friday's peaks (so I'm probably underestimating his gains), he would be up +$800,000 if is still holding.

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01-27-2021 , 06:53 PM

#6399

qotd

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 129

Does anybody know how much a goal or a half-goal is worth with an NHL grand salami? I assume it changes pretty aggressively based on the actual number, but anything to ballpark it would help.

Quote

01-27-2021 , 08:35 PM

#6400

WadeWatts

stranger

Join Date: Nov 2020 Posts: 7

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fubster

Yes there was, I had not properly updated my player trade info so a wrong side was sent. We fortunately donked it however. This error has since been corrected.

How does one review the donks as they happen?

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