At current odds for Bal, Cle, Ten, Mia, and Indy it's definitely +EV, but feels like we would be mostly betting on Bills to win (when they have no motivation to do so).

Are week 17 lines an efficient market?

Yeah thats basically where I'm at. Not sure what to think about this Bills game. That's why I'm thinking Dolphins +3 might be good because I'm not sure why it's back to +3. I don't see any news the Bills will be playing starters. The head coach said he isnt going to announce so maybe that's also what caused the line to move back up but I could easily see that being Allen and co in for two series and then done for the day.

Najdorf already said colts -210 was about fair value (before Bills moved back to -3) but im not sure if they were basing that off week 17 lines or their own projections

Clemson -7 is trending on twitter. All in Ohio state

After Philadelphia injury report showing a bunch of guys are out Washington is still -130 to win the East on Bovada fyi... Off the board at pinny but 5dimes has Was vs Phi line back up as Washington -174 no vig

Thread is a little slow so posting this. Not a huge edge, if these are just spam and not really helping anyone lemme know. 5dimes and any of their clones have miami +3.5 -145. Pinny no vig is -152

always good to see these, thx for sharing

welp good job sean mcdermott

so much for Flores winning CoY, my McDermott bet looking better

sigs can get Wiseman o9.5 pts & o4.5 rebs for +190, looks good to me what do you think?

wiseman gonna play 20+ mins every game apparently so don't see why not

he got a little injured last game

kerr is such a horrible coach. it's amazing how exposed he is now that he doesn't have hall of famers in every position

i just sucked out on washington redskins under team total

it got voided because one of their games wasn't played at where it was initially scheduled to be

can i run any better

A poker player took it down

this is my first time watching a full hurts game

when does he get good

He won't, prob ever.

But def not with Jason Huntley, JJAW at skill positions and Brett Toth at OT.

Greg Ward is probably a better QB.

thats always an interesting thing

dude can obviously run

why not make him a RB? or is his rushing tied into the fact that he could run but he might pass

I'm going to lose dolphins +3 and WFT -120/-130

lol this isn't even a CFL quality game

Go Dudfeld1

Thank you Philly for tanking with Sudfeld

Colts +7 -124 vs bills jumps out to me as possibly good, no? I dont have an nfl model just looking at lines

Hurts 7-20, INT passing, pls trade him for more draft picks.

I think im basically trying to avoid NO in the super bowl for my u2.5 players to throw a pass. Don't see any other teams likely to have anyone but their QB attempt a pass. Go Packers

I think this is all passes (excluded injury or blowout snaps) Sorted somewhat by relevance.

Sorry formatting sucks

Player Tm Pos Cmp Att

Travis Kelce* KAN TE 1 2
Tommy Townsend KAN p 1 1
Sammy Watkins KAN wr 0 1

Taysom Hill NOR qb 6 7 12 games as qb #2

Isaiah McKenzie BUF wr 1 1
Cole Beasley BUF WR 1 1
Jaquan Johnson BUF S 1 1

Jacoby Brissett IND QB 2 8
Zach Pascal IND WR 0 1

Jarvis Landry CLE WR 4 4
Odell Beckham Jr. CLE wr 1 1
Brett Kern TEN p 0 1
Sam Koch BAL p 1 1
Logan Thomas WAS TE 1 1
Isaiah Wright WAS wr 0 1

Have you watched the Chiefs play this year? Fat Andy has barely gone a series, let alone an entire game, without trying something outrageous. Plus, the SB is an entirely different animal than the regular season. If you model the props the same as you would a reg season game you're going to have a bad time.

Thanks for the stats atrainpsu.

Iowa!, here are my thoughts: Reid has been in the SB twice and hasn't had a non QB throw a pass. Thanks to atrainpsu we can see the Chiefs have only had a non QB throw a pass four times all year, which when you consider they have Mahomes makes sense. I agree the SB is a different animal and I think that works to my benefit because I expect coaches to take less risks or call less non QB throws in the biggest game.

I admit a historical look at non QB passes in the super bowl isn't perfect because trick plays are on the rise in the league in recent years, but non QB passes in the super bowl are rare from my look-up of them

at least 4 position players have thrown TD passes in the SB. I think the odds really depend on whether or not they have a position player who's played QB before.