Surely you mean Mayfield? Either way, not sure there's much value here unless you're getting a good price. ~200 is kind of where the line should be set at. The time to hit this would have been two hours ago unless you can still find a stale line.

No I mean Darnold. CLE player props were already off the board by the time I saw the news but NYJ players were still up, was just musing a possible angle where all these CLE WRs being out means a closer, lower scoring game. Which would mean less passing from NYJ.

Ah, I got you. Good thinking but I don't think I'm there with you on that one.

Our R Shiny faceoff app is almost done.

Couple comments:

1) R Shiny is easier than plotly + dash but not as in depth IMO.

2) We need to do a lot of data manipulation so will have to change our scraper. When I made it first I just did a data dump. Realizing now for our purpose it's not efficient. But you don't know that until you try

3) 4 of the entries were "unknown". They were all pre-season games so I just deleted them.

Here's what the app looks like + options.



Anything we should add? I'll host it on github so we can collaborate once the initial version is out.

Once we are up and running I'll un-private my faceoff github repo so we can truly become the preeminent Open Source Syndicate. We can re-define what OSS means in the tech community. Silicon Valley, you're on notice.

think i'm retiring from gambling after raiders -2.5 and tampa o54.5 today.

been real guys

lol now u50.5 in raiders game

That raiders ending was so lol somebody had to have rigged something. I don’t know what but there was for sure a Boxing Day rig.

So I added the ability to calculate rolling averages for faceoffs.

Sample size of 1 but this looks like a disaster

What would be a good sample size for rolling average? I thought 50 was good but maybe that's too much?

Here's 30 for comparison

I guess one interpretation: Matchups are really important!

Looking over the 2019 season here's his overall stats



But you can see the crazy fluctuations in the rolling average over the 2019 season above.

He appears to be much better against Right Handed players so maybe in those times where he ran really good it was against Righties. This is a newer thing. For his life he's 49% against R but since 2018 53.9 and 56.8% in 2019

picked another guy at random and similar graph. red dashed line is his faceoff win % over the entire time

Are the graphs above neutral FO only or all FO? If not neutral, then I guess that would be the first problem to address given what we believe about non-neutral FO advantages.

Based on data, we can expect around 10 neutral FO/game so for high volume guys like Auston Matthews maybe a sample of neutral FO can be 60 - 80 when you consider he has 4100 total FO observations in the data. I didn't check how those break down or what % are neutral.

neutral only sorry. i subsetted the data and got rid of non neutral

the other possibility is the rollmean function in R zoo package is bad. i can manually check tomorrow

OKay here is a start to our app.

Ignore the "Opportunity Breakdown" tab for now. I'm having some issue with getting the plot I want. It works in the console but not the app for some reason. The code is kinda ugly, but it works. Not too proficient in R, usually use python. I haven't used R outside of basic visualizations since grad school (r1 phd program couldn't afford SAS because cheap) about 15 years ago so just a little rusty. We will get better and make it nicer/optimize code/etc but we can start here.

Known issues:
When you select two players who never had a H2H together it will display blank names for both
If you remove the number from running average value the graph goes weird.

Data:
Here's the data for only neutral faceoffs with the pre-season and all star game removed

http://crowdsourcesyndicate.info/NHL/faceoffNeutral.csv

For R Shiny, download R Studio or whatever you use. Create a new shiny project and you need 3 files. global.R (this is actually optional, but good to use), server.R, ui.R

Here's global.R: https://pastebin.com/wgLyBDUE
server.R: https://pastebin.com/6syPksMz
ui.R: https://pastebin.com/8yNvKNnT

When you run the app it should look like this



Variables on the sidebar:

Select a player: This will display data for this person
Opponent: Only used in the "Historical H2H" tab
Team: Only used in "Team Data" tab
Date Range: Used for all data. I set the default for 2 years from the current day
Running average value: Used for the player running faceoff win %. Default is last 30 faceoffs but you can adjust the number.

Player Data -> Data is what is on the front screen. Provides a summary across five subsets (All, Home, Away, vs. L, vs. R) for the player on the top. Then the raw data on the bottom.

Player Data -> Running Average. This will produce a time series graph of faceoff win% with the rolling mean size set by the box in the bottom left.



You can see it adheres to the date range we selected. Chart title updates to reflect the variables we chose.

Player Data -> Historical H2H. Pick 2 skaters and it will tell you how many times they faced off and give you summary statistics.



Same. Adheres to the date range

Team Data -> Team Comparison. Can see if certain teams are better at faceoffs (coaching?)



Team Data -> Opportunity Breakdown. This is a little broken right now. My envision was just a box plot based on the team selected of who on the team gets the faceoffs. Could be good for predicting who might be getting the faceoff to start the game.

Calculate H2H Line -> Doesn't work yet but we can add this once we develop our model.

Things to add: Dashed line on running average which is their average over the time
What about an "ignore bubble" button. Looking at that Auston Matthews graph shows he turned a disaster post bubble. That data could be misleading because they were trapped in Orlando florida or wherever for months and the depression caused by that could have hurt him.
What else?

https://discord.gg/b5VnvJKU

If anyone else hustles promos on the domestic books (draftkings, fanduel etc), check out the link above (discord account required but it's easy if you don't have one already). Tons of good info

did Jalen Hurts just throw a 2 yard pass to Ertz on 4th and 15

high football IQ

12/29 Euroleague
Olympiakos +2
Efes -2.5

Looks like Rodgers will win MVP. I shouldve tailed, good call.

speaking of awards what do we think about

Flores +700 to win coach of the year

I really thought Stefanski was going to win but the browns might not even make the playoffs now. This covid thing is gonna hurt him IMO.

Ron Rivera is the other favorite in the betting market but the Redskins are horrible.

Whoever the Bills coach is (McDermott?) is coming off playoffs so I think just getting back to the playoffs won't cut it. They're gonna be 10-6 or whatever. If they were 13-3 or better then sure.

In the past usually a wild card coach doesn't get the award, but Dolphins are way overachieving and the rest of the field is eh. Reid and Tomlin have too high of expectations. Reid would have to go 16-0 to win it IMO.

128.1 qb rating, 1 sack
how we does it
and today was amazing. we back from week long non stop losing depression.

What book is showing Flores +700? That is def a buy (I thought +600 was a buy before this week and this week was fantastic for dolphins). Flores and Rivera should be the favorites now. Rivera gets the narrative bonus of all of his QBs dying and somehow still making playoffs (the 45% of the time that they do make playoffs) but Flores I think is the fav if dolphins make playoffs. Fwiw Circa was +250/-350 before this week on Flores, I think they may be like +150/-250 after this week and you can just arb it.

Anyone have historical lines on the derivative/props/whatever theyre called markets for esports? All I can find is Oddsportal which only contains money line history.

Also nice work on the Shiny app - I was really surprised how well R studio works, essentially I just pressed a button to install all the packages I needed and it was up and running.

a pPH i have. that makes sense because +700 seemed off when i loaded it up

also didn't realize the bills were 11-3. i feel like i've been betting on them every week and seeing them lose horribly. but they're 9-5 ATS too. must have just been one game I super tilted on.

maybe there is value in just going McDermott and Flores? Bills should beat the Pats tomorrow and then week 17 depends on whether they rest people or not.

I think Watt won the dpoy today too. It should go to Howard but Watt has the name recognition and during the Steelers/Ind big game today they called his name non stop. His popularity going to give him the edge like when that guy on the Colts kept getting brought up as the best d person ever even tho the colts were giving up 40 pts a game.

That seems good to me. I bought Flores +600 and McDermott +650 last week, curious where they make them this week but none of my books will put anything up until after Bills play. This award has been so weird, 5 weeks ago Circa had Tomlin -250/+200 to win it which seemed crazy since Steelers were still a longshot to go 16-0 and I’m not sure he wins without doing that. Can’t wait to own Rivera, Flores and McDermott at good prices and have the voters randomly vote for LaFleur.

LaFleur deserves it for drafting a backup QB to Rodgers. He knew it would get him motivated

Drafting a 3rd string QB, a 2nd/3rd string RB and 3rd string TE with your first 3 picks usually isn’t a recipe for success in the NFL, but when you have Godgers you can draft cheerleaders in the first 3 rounds and still be a favorite to playoff.

My 5-1 Godgers MVP tout ITT is looking good about now.