Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting
12-24-2020
, 01:02 AM
12-24-2020
, 02:55 PM
12-24-2020
, 03:12 PM
Here is another excerpt from that NHL paper I linked before:
This article from 2019 also talks about face offs:
And this is data from 2006-2007 season but it backs up the home ice advantage numbers:
Quote:
The effect of being on the power play relative to even strength is to increase the probability of winning by 5.7% (p<10-100) while being at home increase the win percentage by 1.5% (p<10-39).
Quote:
Consider the fact that the NHL recently implemented new rules for face-offs that requiring the centre closest their own goalie to place his stick on the ice before the other centre, thereby giving the offensive centre an advantage on the draw. The data supports that offensive zone draws do come with a higher success rate than defensive zone draws (the two types of end zones draws of course have an inverse relationship to one another). So far this season, centres taking draws in the offensive zone are winning 51.1% of draws versus 48.9% for their defensive counterparts. As a result, a player that takes more offensive zone draws than defensive zone draws will have an artificially inflated face-off percentage that belies their true talent on the draw.
Quote:
Furthermore, there’s handedness to consider, as many players fare better against either lefties or righties, with a relation not too dissimilar to pitchers and batters in baseball. Left-versus-left and right-versus-right logically has to come out at 50% (every face-off has one winner and one loser), but it appears that lefties have a slight advantage against righties, at least this season, according to the chart below.
Quote:
Home teams enjoyed a home advantage in face-off success, winning 52.3%, 52.1%, and 51.4% in the offensive, defensive, and neutral zones, respectively. For all three zones combined, home teams won 51.9%.
12-24-2020
, 09:12 PM
12-25-2020
, 12:07 PM
12-25-2020
, 01:32 PM
Godgers MVP is +500 on major euro bookies fwiw. That's definitely on the high side imo and I'm glad I bought some at +700, but +260 sounds -EV to me.
Who do we think wins DPOY? The odds here in euroland are the following:
Donald -139
Watt +275
Howard +550
Garrett +1100
The rest at least +3300
I don't really get why Donald is such a huge favorite over Watt. It's harder to get sacks from his position yes, but Watt leads in nearly every meaningful category:
Sacks 13-12.5
QBhits 40-25
Tackles (comb) 50-39
Tackles for loss 22-11
Int 1-0
PD 7-1
Donald leads in:
Fumbles recovered 0-1
Forced fumbles 1-4
To me it feels like Donald and Watt should be pretty even in odds
Also what do people make of Howard's chances? Imo he's wayyyyy overhyped here odds-wise: Dolphins might not even make the playoffs, and players from his position don't win DPOY very often. Gilmore won last year yes, but he had ZERO TDs allowed, Howard has four already. Gilmore also had 2 TDs made vs Howard's 0. Feels like the TDs allowed should be fairly relevant here. Obv Howard is only 2 INTs away from highest amount of INTs in 40 years but I'm not sure if hitting that would even be enough? And unless he binks it, I don't see how he beats Watt/Donald.
I've got irresponsible amounts of Watt and a ton of Donald at 6:1 from earlier in the season, but I just can't bring myself to hedge it with Howard. Should I?
Who do we think wins DPOY? The odds here in euroland are the following:
Donald -139
Watt +275
Howard +550
Garrett +1100
The rest at least +3300
I don't really get why Donald is such a huge favorite over Watt. It's harder to get sacks from his position yes, but Watt leads in nearly every meaningful category:
Sacks 13-12.5
QBhits 40-25
Tackles (comb) 50-39
Tackles for loss 22-11
Int 1-0
PD 7-1
Donald leads in:
Fumbles recovered 0-1
Forced fumbles 1-4
To me it feels like Donald and Watt should be pretty even in odds
Also what do people make of Howard's chances? Imo he's wayyyyy overhyped here odds-wise: Dolphins might not even make the playoffs, and players from his position don't win DPOY very often. Gilmore won last year yes, but he had ZERO TDs allowed, Howard has four already. Gilmore also had 2 TDs made vs Howard's 0. Feels like the TDs allowed should be fairly relevant here. Obv Howard is only 2 INTs away from highest amount of INTs in 40 years but I'm not sure if hitting that would even be enough? And unless he binks it, I don't see how he beats Watt/Donald.
I've got irresponsible amounts of Watt and a ton of Donald at 6:1 from earlier in the season, but I just can't bring myself to hedge it with Howard. Should I?