TBs Trout -115 over Santana

Late HRR

Blackmon u2.5 +120
Pollock u2.0 -114
Yelich o2.0 -114

For K I use my model predictions based on a lot of factors. It's surprising to me that K is doing so bad (because my ML bets are doing way better than expected and pitchers are huge component), but looking back we lost 47 bets by 1/2K and only won 22 by 1/2 K. So we are in the range, just ending up on the wrong side.

Here's some basketball things which may be bad but who knows

Ben SImmons o16.5 PTS +110
DeMarre Carroll o11.5 PTS +110
Joel Embiid u13 Rebounds -114
Paul Millsap o8 rebounds +120
Jokic o20.5 pts +110
Draymond Green o7.5 rebounds -110
Kevin Durant o5 assists +100
Landry Shamet o9.5 pts -114

I think you guys should refrain from calling yourselves a syndicate. If someone ends up tailing your plays closely, it just gives the book an excuse to play the "syndicate" card and confiscate winnings. Even if that is still not an excuse to confiscate winnings, there's no reason to give them extra ammo.

Good luck gentlemen.

I got Score in First +105 Yes Yankees/Royals

Am I doing this right??

So weird how it moves

Pinnacle has -117 as YES, so seems good.

-123 now, crushed it bro

now get pissed as one team has 2nd and 3rd with 0 outs and somehow manages to score 0 runs

or they both go 1-2-3 and score 9 runs in top 2nd

How do we price this COORS FIELD 11 total game... I can get +146 on the NO, is that in there??

Not enough sample size IMO

I have exactly 150 over and 89 under

so under 37.24% of the time which is +168

i had a theory that it mattered for the run in the first if one team was a big favorite over the other. the idea being that there's an upper limit to the probability an individual team can score in their inning (it's still baseball), so if the game has a high total and both teams are evenly matched then it's better than a high total and one is a big favorite. i remember lookign at some data though and not being convinced that theory worked out. worth revisiting though if we ever get some datasets posted here.

In play, run(s) Alex Gordon

see you at the window

+105 on that total too with 1/3rd kelly was a 3.46% BR bet. Insane value. 11% edge

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's thought of this.

I like this TB Cain +110 over Seager (BM) but I know everyone in here hates Cain

Got a 2nd run, should have taken o1.5 runs in the first!

The Gordon u2.0 HRR doesn’t feel so bad now!


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Luckily I had that yesterday, was going to take it today too but I was operating under the Domingo Germain is overrated theory. So instead I just bet o6 K's for him.

Given these are all -114 I assume you're betting them at PlayerProps? They cut me to $250 limits at some books or half that at others already. I assume you don't have full original ~$500 limits?

Yeah I’m down to $50 limits but gotta get that volume where you can


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I only have $200 limits on MLB/NBA, not as special I guess. But for some reason I have $5,000 limits on soccer props.

Here's some Golf, all 2nd round of heritage and available at bookmaker

Dustin Johnson -½+108 over Kuchar, Risk 1.4u
Xander Schauffele -½+122 over Poulter, Risk 0.94u
Tommy Fleetwood -½+120 over Molinari, Risk 0.28u
Marc Leishman -½+122 over Spieth, Risk 0.87u
Jason Kokrak -½+123 over Si Woo Kim, Risk 0.92u
Abraham Ancer -½+126 over Keith Mitchell, Risk 0.20u
Risking: 4.61u




Last posting (Masters Round 1):
Cameron Smith +0.5 +130 over Rickie Fowler WIN +1.3
Haotong Li +0.5 +140 over Tiger Tiger Woods Y'all LOSS -1
Brooks Keopka -0.5 +100 over Jordan Spieth WIN +1
Justin THomas -0.5 -112 over Phil Mickelson LOSS -1.12
Bryson DeChambeau +0.5 -111 over Jason Day WIN +1
Webb Simpson -0.5 +104 over Patrick Reed WIN +1.04
Kiradech Aphibarnrat +0.5 -104 over Kevin Kisner (I bet this a bunch all over Vegas and the line keeps getting better, so we might be wrong here) WIN +1 (this was a pretty satisfying win)
Paul Casey -0.5 +105 over Spieth LOSS -1
Danny Willett +0.5 +111 over Snedeker WIN +1.11
Eddie Pepperall +0.5 +130 over Charles Howell III LOSS -1
Patrick Cantlay +0.5 -130 over Bubba Watson LOSS -1.3
Matt Wallance -0.5 -104 over Bernhard Langer LOSS -1.04

6-6 -0.01u on 12.61u wagered (0% ROI)

I have seniors matchups up (for the tournament) MITSUBIHI ELECTRIC CLASSIC

https://pastebin.com/NnQvaMrk

Don't know much about Seniors golf because no outs

Can someone activate Coors field

For RSIF I'm willing to throw some data into some boosted trees and let my GPU heat my office tomorrow, there's storms in the forecast so that would be nice and cozy. We can elevate our game to the next level with probably not a whole ton of effort. DNRS do you also have any historic public projections saved on a daily basis, like you do with lines and etc? I think I can donbest pinnacle o/u 1/2 in the 1st.

Couple more NBA props

Patrick Beverly Points o9.5 -114
Durant Points o27.5 +130
Draymond Green Assists o7 -114

Daily: 4-4-0, -0.36u
YTD: 85-67-19, +17.21u, 199.27u risked, +8.6% ROI

Another nice losing day. It really just came down to the Phillies game. Whiffing almost everyone there is basically the loss. I'm assuming these NBA players are not coming back in the game and Domingo Santana isn't getting 5 HRR's to tie Pujols. Lets get them tomorrow

TB:
Rendon -120 over Belt WIN +1
Cain +110 over Seager (BM) WIN +1.10
Puig +110 over Machado (BM) CANCELLED (Puig DNS)
Harper +104 over Arenado (BM) LOSS -1
Bellinger -115 over Yelich (BM) WIN +1
Yesterday: 3-1 +2.1u
Total: 40-39-14 -1.62u

K:
Corbin u7.5 -114 LOSS -1.14
German o6 -114 WIN +1
Zach Davies o4 -114 LOSS -1.14
Freeland u5 -115 LOSS -1.15
Eflin u5 -114 WIN +1
Felix Hernandez u4 -114 WIN +1
Tanner Roark o5 -114 PUSH
Chris Paddack u5 -114 PUSH
Yesterday: 3-3-2 -0.43u
Total: 100-97-20 -2.91u

HRR:
Freeman o2 -114 WIN +1
Rendon o2 -114 PUSH
Moncada o2 +127 LOSS -1
Judge o2 -114 PUSH
Villar o1.5 -114 WIN +1
Bellinger o2 -114 WIN +1
Yelich u2.5 -114 LOSS -1.14 (nice 9th inning HR)
Joc Pederson o2 -114 LOSS -1.14
Rhys Hoskins o2 -114 LOSS -1.14
Blackmon o2 -114 LOSS -1.14
McCutchen o2 -114 LOSS -1.14
Realmuto o2 -114 WIN +1
Harper o2 -114 LOSS -1.14
Wil Myers o1.5 -114 CANCELLED (DNS)
Votto o1.5 -114 WIN +1
D. Gordon -115 over Lucroy CANCELLED (Lucroy DNS)
Mancini -105 over Y. Diaz WIN +1
Hoskins -120 over Arenado (Based on the market I think I'm the only one who loves the Phillies tonight) LOSS -1.2
Braun -115 over Turner PUSH
Pollock -115 over Moustakas CANCELLED (Moustakas DNS)
Schebler +115 over Hosmer PUSH
Pujols u2 -114 LOSS -1.14
D. Santana -110 over Pujols LOSS -1.1
Yesterday: 6-10-4 -5.28u
Total: 102-83-28 +11u

Ben SImmons o16.5 PTS +110 WIN +1.1
DeMarre Carroll o11.5 PTS -114 LOSS -1.14
Joel Embiid u13 Rebounds -114 CANCELLED (DNP)
Paul Millsap o8 rebounds +120 LOSS -1
Jokic o20.5 pts +110 WIN +1.1
Kevin Durant o5 assists +100 WIN +1
Durant Points o27.5 +130 WIN +1.3
Draymond Green Assists o7 -114 WIN +1
Draymond Green o7.5 rebounds -114 LOSS -1.14
Landry Shamet o9.5 pts -114 LOSS -1.14
Patrick Beverly o5 Rebounds -114 LOSS -1.14
Yesterday: 5-5 -0.06u
Total: 9-11 -2.62u

couple more golf. These are around Vegas, Pinnacle, and 5D has them

KJ Choi +0.5 +114 over Luke Donald 1.22u risk
Luke List -0.5 +105 over Branden Grace 0.45u risk
Kevin Streelman +0.5 +118 over Ryan Moore 0.53u risk

i stopped listening when he said he spends 10-12 hours in front of the screen per day, refreshes books constantly, and doesn't bet $5-10k a game.

work smarter not harder.

does it get better?