pastebin NFL props week 2

https://pastebin.com/76yDKHJi

btw if you see things that are 100% it's because it's early in the season and i didn't wanna do a model for that player either because (a) uncertainty or (b) lot of injuries on one of the teams

this year i keep them in for full game line building but last year made too many mistakes where i knew it was risky and bet it blindly. went around that by making a "risky" box and then when it exports the prop it gives 0 to everything.

imagine betting on the eagles back to back weeks

why do we do it

At least coulda had their opponent in teasers both weeks...

hope everyone listened to the GOAT

Wow, what a game, some guy had $450k on Sea-4, he must of been shitting himself on the last play. lol

Noob NFL pastebin question. What does a probability for u1 mean? Is it supposed to be P(x<1 | x!=1)?

whats the consensus on 6pt wong teasers these days. I can get 2 teams at -110 or 4 at -265. Still worth it?

4-team should be +300.

Can someone help? What are the odds that both teams score at least 1 TD in the 1st half? Or that both teams score at least 1 TD in both halves?

For tonight's game: total of 49.

Trying to figure out if +200 (both halves) is +EV.

Thanks

What happens lols a bunch of non big 5 games have been postponed/cancelled. Looks UNT has some positive cases and cancelled and a bunch followed suit?

My apologies this poorly written post was for another thread.

FSU +360 dk
Miami -359 bm

go crazy

I usually don't bet the last two regular season MLB days due to motivation. Here's how The Chart (TM) went this year.

RSIF: 128-103 +6.899% ROI. 174 No's, 57 Yes. Ran ahead of expectations. Expected ROI was 5.668%

HRE: 154-123-6 +9.24% ROI. 50 over, 233 under. Way above expectations. Expected ROI: 6.408%

Highest ROI ever but of course less volume due to a third of the games.

MLB ML went well too (3.19% ROI on much higher amount bet than those props).

Other props:

Total Bases: 198-174 +2.32% ROI
Pitcher K: 214-149 +17.64% ROI (7 of those losses were against Aaron Nola, 8 against Bieber)

Year in, year out the chart stands tall. I think we benefited from a lot of unders and nos. For the HRE under I wonder how much was due to the new extra innings rules. Need to look into that. Going forward I think I'm excluding this years data from the chart. The middle of the season was regular MLB IMO but the first couple of weeks and last couple were weird.

I wasn't too happy with the total bases results. BM is too sharp. Really just 6 or so bets away from being negative. I wish the greek still existed and everyone copied their horrible lines.

Loving the 56c juice on FoxBet h2 totals.

I’m curious why you bet so few yeses in RSIF. I saw way more good prices on Yes than No this year, as usual.

I bet mostly yes this season and got absolutely crushed, -11.7% ROI.

Besides poisson and neg binomial, what discrete distributions should I know? Fitdistrplus really only uses those two for discrete

i use my proj total which usually align with market but this year i was on a lot of full game unders

might be why i had many no's

TomG I'm sorry to ruin your name. We are 9-6 in the contest. 3-2 every week, but 60% isn't good enough for the SHARKS in this contest

we aren't even beating Tom Barton Sports who is 10-5

or Tom Lippard who is 12-2-1

i think just know how to construct measures of any discrete distribution is important.

i guess the Pascal distribution (special case of negative) is useful. esp if you're doing anything bayesian related

geometry, hypergeometric

Seems pretty light considering they spun off BAS too. Although it's hard to imagine them getting any license in the US, but I guess with some greased palms anything is possible.

xfl is back 2022

lets get these W boys

The A's going with Mike Fiers is literally the worst SP choice they could've made, pretty incredible.

"My **** doesn't work in the playoffs. My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is ****ing luck." — Billy Beane, Oakland A's general manager.

Although Twins seem to have found a way to be consistent in the playoffs.