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Old 09-10-2020, 02:10 PM   #5276
TomG
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

We are disrupting an entire industry and a lot of people (bookmakers, touts, private syndicates) have a vested interest in stopping it from happening. I think it would mean a lot to win the NFL betting contest because everyone would then realize an open sourced syndicate really is legitimate and even superior way to organize. Who we got?
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Old 09-10-2020, 02:35 PM   #5277
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

The tout scene is pretty crazy. I've been running real good on NASCAR TWITTER and all these Nascar touts started following me. So I put in random non sense about a driver into a write-up and now that information appears on three separate tout sites.

It's a very cutthroat industry.
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Old 09-10-2020, 03:10 PM   #5278
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

^^This is Gold.
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Old 09-10-2020, 04:21 PM   #5279
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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The tout scene is pretty crazy. I've been running real good on NASCAR TWITTER and all these Nascar touts started following me. So I put in random non sense about a driver into a write-up and now that information appears on three separate tout sites.

It's a very cutthroat industry.
haha, love this.
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Old 09-11-2020, 01:23 AM   #5280
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

As long as all nascar touts are officially uninvited to white castle I'll bring a cake with TomG's profile picture on it.
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Old 09-11-2020, 05:44 AM   #5281
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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If you're in NJ, NH, WV, DraftKings has a massive overlay on their $2m guaranteed season-long contest. $1500 entry. $1mm first prize.
Is this still open? It's a fantasy contest, right? I'm in PA so it should be available to me but I can't find it.
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Old 09-11-2020, 08:48 AM   #5282
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Even better imo, white castle have bottle service?
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Old 09-11-2020, 12:26 PM   #5283
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Is this still open? It's a fantasy contest, right? I'm in PA so it should be available to me but I can't find it.
Love me some Terrace House.

Is Pinnacle holding off on player props this year? They still dont have any up. Any secondary options for player props?
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Old 09-11-2020, 02:29 PM   #5284
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Is Pinnacle holding off on player props this year? They still dont have any up. Any secondary options for player props?
They had them last night. 40c lines but back to $500 limits until the next raping. Bookmaker had a full menu as well.
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Old 09-11-2020, 04:47 PM   #5285
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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They had them last night. 40c lines but back to $500 limits until the next raping. Bookmaker had a full menu as well.
Ah okay. I didnt look for last nights game. Was looking at Sundays slate and they had nothing listed.

How were the lines for last night?
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Old 09-12-2020, 04:39 PM   #5286
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

going great for us in the contest

locked in the eagles for week 1

just as it locks miles sanders is out
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Old 09-13-2020, 12:42 PM   #5287
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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going great for us in the contest

locked in the eagles for week 1

just as it locks miles sanders is out
That's okay because Lane Johnson is out also.
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Old 09-13-2020, 12:47 PM   #5288
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

25% profit boost on NFL picks at DK, $50 max but still free money.
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Old 09-13-2020, 04:23 PM   #5289
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

8 sacks? What is that Eagles OL doing

3-2 week 1 (pats, bears, jax cover. falcons/eagles don't). white castle unlikely

i let us down
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Old 09-13-2020, 04:27 PM   #5290
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

OL was forced to play an Australian FL player who'd never taken a snap before after stupidly not signing a veteran OT after Dillard went down and Lane Johnson's been hurt all preseason & this week and backup rookie OT Driscoll then got hurt.
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Old 09-14-2020, 01:47 AM   #5291
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Hockey pbp and shift data back to 2007 is available at: https://hockey-data.harryshomer.com/

I don't have a ton of confidence in the xGoals predictions that are derived from this (think you need shot speed/quality in addition to type and distance) but it's gotta be enough to crack face-offs, right? Maybe the historical line matchups can predict who will open (scoring line 1 or a defensive line) and player-specific rather than general R/L edges.

MLB has been great but looking like there won't be much other than football Nov-Dec.
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Old 09-14-2020, 06:05 PM   #5292
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Old 09-14-2020, 09:32 PM   #5293
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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25% profit boost on NFL picks at DK, $50 max but still free money.
This +1.

I'm not sure I've ever posted in this thread, but I have read and re-read a great deal of it and learned so much, so thank you to everyone who has contributed their wealth of knowledge to the conversation.

I found some fun arbitrage-middle combo bets with these type promos, including Darnold U 224.5 pa yds +135 and O 208.5 -115 somewhere else. Sam threw for 215. Sam the man.
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Old 09-15-2020, 11:56 AM   #5294
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Hockey pbp and shift data back to 2007 is available at: https://hockey-data.harryshomer.com/

I don't have a ton of confidence in the xGoals predictions that are derived from this (think you need shot speed/quality in addition to type and distance) but it's gotta be enough to crack face-offs, right? Maybe the historical line matchups can predict who will open (scoring line 1 or a defensive line) and player-specific rather than general R/L edges.

MLB has been great but looking like there won't be much other than football Nov-Dec.
Thanks for posting this. Getting data is often harder than many people think so it's great to have in this thread for the data guys to look over.

The problem with FO's isn't data IMO. We have a ton of faceoff win/loss data. It's trying to figure out who will show up in the opening faceoff that is the problem. Also it's a small group who can maintain a 53.5%+ FO win rate (breakeven at -115). Then when that person doesn't even show up in the opening FO, your EV gets wrecked. It doesn't help that despite being the most exciting 2 seconds in sports betting, the actual players and coaches seem to treat it less seriously than the bettors.

Also, I have my doubts about how effective a Log5 type approach to calculating FO WL works especially as we get further from 50/50. For example, if a 55% guy faces off against a 45% guy, what do you think the fair odds should be? What about a 60/40 matchup?

In my experience, xGoals as it's currently used is a really bad metric. When I tried substituting xG for Goals it ended up penalizing the star players and rewarding scrubs. It took me longer than it should to realize this because star players make up the majority of player prop over/unders and I kept taking the best players under. It's when I was messing around with DFS that I realized xG was boosting poor shooting players that I made the obvious connection. I now never use it and prefer to just use a regressed shooting percentage. That's leaving a lot of context on the table which could definitely be improved upon. If I were to create my own metric, I'd use some type of KNN grouping and try to come up with an adjusted xG stat based upon talent level. Maybe people are already do this I haven't really kept up.

Even pbp is missing a lot of context since I feel like so much more is happening besides whoever has the puck. Soccer guys probably already have it all figured out and it just needs to be translated into hockey.

I am not an expert though--it's just my impression from my experience tinkering and reading about what hockey nerds were working on.
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Old 09-15-2020, 01:01 PM   #5295
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

I guess it's finally time for me to admit I've been beating faceoffs for years, long before the Crowdsource Syndicate was formed.

The trick is that a few minutes before puck drop, the away team turns in their starting line to the scorer, then the home team. When the scorer submits that info, NHL.com bolds the starters. I politely scrape that page, and when the starting lines post, my bot calculates the matchup and texts me the true odds. I'll add you guys to the text list if you want, it's something like $0.0003 per SMS, and AWS hosting is a couple bucks a month, but that's the price I pay for holding out on you all for so long.

As for the details, I use log5 and split it by handedness, but go with God on that.
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Old 09-15-2020, 02:22 PM   #5296
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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I guess it's finally time for me to admit I've been beating faceoffs for years, long before the Crowdsource Syndicate was formed.

The trick is that a few minutes before puck drop, the away team turns in their starting line to the scorer, then the home team. When the scorer submits that info, NHL.com bolds the starters. I politely scrape that page, and when the starting lines post, my bot calculates the matchup and texts me the true odds. I'll add you guys to the text list if you want, it's something like $0.0003 per SMS, and AWS hosting is a couple bucks a month, but that's the price I pay for holding out on you all for so long.

As for the details, I use log5 and split it by handedness, but go with God on that.
This is why Crowdsource Syndicate is the best. If want to disseminate, the best way is to setup a Twitter handle and have AWS text message to post to it. Nice work. It's great to see this market finally taken down. u mad poogs?
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Old 09-15-2020, 02:27 PM   #5297
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Twitter and Telegram are both options I thought about but since the list of people that get the plays is like 8 I never bothered. I can't text-to-Twitter because Twilio requires recipients to opt in. It costs maybe $10/yr. If I wanted to reduce costs I'd set the threshold for sending a text to something like -125. As it is it sends everything even if it's no good. BOL used to try to set them pre-lineups and you'd get +110 sometimes.
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Old 09-15-2020, 03:16 PM   #5298
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
The tout scene is pretty crazy. I've been running real good on NASCAR TWITTER and all these Nascar touts started following me. So I put in random non sense about a driver into a write-up and now that information appears on three separate tout sites.

It's a very cutthroat industry.
incredible lol. love reading this thread.
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Old 09-16-2020, 08:48 PM   #5299
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Originally Posted by critiakx2 View Post
Hockey pbp and shift data back to 2007 is available at: https://hockey-data.harryshomer.com/

I don't have a ton of confidence in the xGoals predictions that are derived from this (think you need shot speed/quality in addition to type and distance) but it's gotta be enough to crack face-offs, right? Maybe the historical line matchups can predict who will open (scoring line 1 or a defensive line) and player-specific rather than general R/L edges.

MLB has been great but looking like there won't be much other than football Nov-Dec.
CBB back Nov 25th.
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Old 09-17-2020, 10:38 PM   #5300
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Nola money machine goes brr brr brrrrrr.
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