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Old 08-04-2020, 02:22 PM   #5176
Zeido
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Hi guys, hopefully this isn't too eSports for everyone but I'm looking for some guidance on improving my player projections for LoL DFS.
Essentially scoring is like this:

+3 Points per Kill
+2 Points per Assist (given to any player who helps in a kill, and there is no limit on number of teammates who can assist on a kill)
-1 Point per Death

Theres other stuff but this is what makes up 95% of scoring.

I have projections for a teams total kills and their likelihood of winning, as theyll only produce a useful score if they win.

Currently my projections are this, for each player:
1. Take their teams projected kill total (either from my model or Vegas)
2. Multiply that by a stat known as "kill participation", which is the number of kills + assists the player has over the course of the season divided by their teams season total for kills. I.e. if a player has a 75% kill participation they have a kill or an assist on 75% of their teams kills.
3. Multiply that number by 2 + the ratio of Kills / (Kills + Assists). Since Kills are 1 more point than Assists, this is just a way to approximate how much more often they get the kill than the assist given their stats on the season.
4. Subtract the expected number of deaths for the team multiplied by the players % of the teams deaths they account for the course of the season.
5(?). Multiply by likelihood of winning - Does this even make sense? In my head this is just an EV calculation of Score when they win * % chance they win, but maybe its baked into their projected kills already.

This is what I have right now, but I'm wondering if it might not be robust enough or might not not account for the outlier performances we're looking for to win GPPs.

Thanks for any input
1. You can get individual team kills over/under on pinnacle. No need to worry about win-probabilities then.

2. To convert the 50-50 over/under team kills to estimated kills for the team you would need to add a small margin like 0.6 as kills aren't normally distributed.

3. Do kills, assists and deaths seperately. What is a players kill percentage, what is the assists percentage (kill participation - kill percentage), what about death percentage?

4. Then multiply each of the above metrics with team kills (or team deaths) and sum up expected points.
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Old 08-07-2020, 04:29 PM   #5177
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Hadn't bet on DK for 5 months, literally. Made a $20 and $35 PGA futures bet which were my limits on those players.

Today, can't bet anything on NBA, says account is restricted and I have to call. LOLWTFBBQZOMG
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Old 08-07-2020, 10:02 PM   #5178
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Yeah DK is a joke and I’m down to 1/8 normal limits on foxbet
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Old 08-09-2020, 09:12 PM   #5179
ska55
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

im kind of tired of using btc any advice on finding pph's? i assume i can use cash app or something similar w most of those guys
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Old 08-10-2020, 03:16 AM   #5180
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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im kind of tired of using btc any advice on finding pph's? i assume i can use cash app or something similar w most of those guys
post on different sb forums with useful information and someone will eventually message you
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Old 08-10-2020, 08:32 PM   #5181
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

where's rsigley to tell me Nola's not a strikeout pitcher?

Aside from being busy winning lots of dough, I mean.
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Old 08-11-2020, 10:12 AM   #5182
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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where's rsigley to tell me Nola's not a strikeout pitcher?

Aside from being busy winning lots of dough, I mean.
It's just not deep enough into August yet for him. He needs those real late August dog days of humidity to preform well. His blood pumps better in it, due to the Celtic heritage
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Old 08-11-2020, 06:09 PM   #5183
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

O'quinn on pace to put up a triple double gonna win somebody a ton of DFS money today.
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Old 08-11-2020, 08:17 PM   #5184
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

i had over on nola last two games. he's back

k's crushing this year too. got minor -102 on u6.5 and it's currently -201 so can't wait to lose that

marco gonzalez u5.5 -119 and -191 now

gallen -107 now -193

it was crazy the first couple weeks of the year when most of the pitchers were on strict pitch or innings counts that were below normal and getting pulled in the 4th
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Old 08-11-2020, 10:11 PM   #5185
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

classic MLB K's where you beat the lines by 100 cents and lose
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Old 08-12-2020, 09:18 PM   #5186
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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classic MLB K's where you beat the lines by 100 cents and lose
idk y this made me lol so hard
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Old 08-13-2020, 12:19 PM   #5187
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

question about running simulations

very likely a dumb question.

can i run 500 sims or 1k sims multiple times and combine the results until I get 10k+?

say with golf, 4 rounds with 150+ golfers bricks my laptop and attempting it on the cloud with google sheets doesn't work either

i don't see why i couldn't run 500 sims 20 times etc but never see this mentioned so am wondering if there's an inherent problem with it
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Old 08-13-2020, 02:51 PM   #5188
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

It makes no difference, but some of you guys need to hire cheap labor to clean up your golf sims because 10k tournaments shouldn't take more than 5 minutes.
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Old 08-13-2020, 03:59 PM   #5189
TomG
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Yes use vectors and matrix operations in your code. Don't use loops. It took me years to figure that out how to do that but I'm an idiot programmer. Smart guy like you will learn fast. Then rent Amazon cloud computing power. They have disk images setup and ready to go. It's like renting a Lamborghini for pennies an hour.

https://www.louisaslett.com/RStudio_AMI/
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Old 08-13-2020, 04:06 PM   #5190
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

i have my golf simulator running on a vps with only 1 gig of ram and its been running without being turned off for 8 years straight

i'm worried if i upgrade it will crash
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Old 08-13-2020, 04:18 PM   #5191
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Is there action on this forum for chess? There's a big match starting tomorrow, 7 game (4 each day) series between the worlds 2 best computer blitz players.
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Old 08-14-2020, 11:20 AM   #5192
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Very hard to pick against Magnus in a best of 7.
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Old 08-14-2020, 04:54 PM   #5193
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Originally Posted by Tuma View Post
Is there action on this forum for chess? There's a big match starting tomorrow, 7 game (4 each day) series between the worlds 2 best computer blitz players.

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Very hard to pick against Magnus in a best of 7.
gtfo nerds
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Old 08-16-2020, 02:37 PM   #5194
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

When sigley isn't posting his h2h soapbox derby 150 props, this is what thread is reduced to, sadly.

Magnus won Set 2, now it's a best of 5.
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Old 08-20-2020, 07:33 PM   #5195
smartDFS
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

If nothing else good comes from Covid, I guess all sort of natural experiments is one thing.

Can sharps speak to what they're seeing with home field advantage being baked into lines post-COVID? If I look at Week 1 NFL lines it appears some teams are getting the benefit of traditional 3pt HFA boost (MIN -3.5 vs GB stands out), but I doubt empty stadiums confer the same advantage?
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Old 08-20-2020, 09:05 PM   #5196
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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If nothing else good comes from Covid, I guess all sort of natural experiments is one thing.

Can sharps speak to what they're seeing with home field advantage being baked into lines post-COVID? If I look at Week 1 NFL lines it appears some teams are getting the benefit of traditional 3pt HFA boost (MIN -3.5 vs GB stands out), but I doubt empty stadiums confer the same advantage?
although i haven't officially looked at any numbers, it's pretty anecdotally noticeable in soccer/hockey/basketball thus far - hockey has been a bit surprising because the rules actually bake in a home team advantage so that should hold up stronger than in other sports even without the travel or fan influence over officiating

imagine the travel and stadiums able to pipe in noise to disrupt huddles (unsure but heard a rumor they can do this) could still be some factor

definitely worthwhile scraping soccer/nhl/nba and comparing to historical results
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Old 08-20-2020, 11:53 PM   #5197
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

interesting, thanks.
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Old 08-21-2020, 10:07 PM   #5198
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting



yikes
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Old 08-22-2020, 03:39 AM   #5199
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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yikes


not insurmountable if your 1b gets 2hr apparently
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Old 08-26-2020, 10:25 PM   #5200
ska55
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Trying my hand at boxing/UFC. I've essentially broken even but here we go.

Boxing:
Sunny Edwards -600 (BOL)
Sam Maxwell -140 (BOL)

UFC:
Impa Kasanganay -125 (5D)
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