Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting - Page 208 - Sports Betting

Hi guys, hopefully this isn't too eSports for everyone but I'm looking for some guidance on improving my player projections for LoL DFS.
Essentially scoring is like this:

+3 Points per Kill
+2 Points per Assist (given to any player who helps in a kill, and there is no limit on number of teammates who can assist on a kill)
-1 Point per Death

Theres other stuff but this is what makes up 95% of scoring.

I have projections for a teams total kills and their likelihood of winning, as theyll only produce a useful score if they win.

Currently my projections are this, for each player:
1. Take their teams projected kill total (either from my model or Vegas)
2. Multiply that by a stat known as "kill participation", which is the number of kills + assists the player has over the course of the season divided by their teams season total for kills. I.e. if a player has a 75% kill participation they have a kill or an assist on 75% of their teams kills.
3. Multiply that number by 2 + the ratio of Kills / (Kills + Assists). Since Kills are 1 more point than Assists, this is just a way to approximate how much more often they get the kill than the assist given their stats on the season.
4. Subtract the expected number of deaths for the team multiplied by the players % of the teams deaths they account for the course of the season.
5(?). Multiply by likelihood of winning - Does this even make sense? In my head this is just an EV calculation of Score when they win * % chance they win, but maybe its baked into their projected kills already.

This is what I have right now, but I'm wondering if it might not be robust enough or might not not account for the outlier performances we're looking for to win GPPs.

Thanks for any input

1. You can get individual team kills over/under on pinnacle. No need to worry about win-probabilities then.

2. To convert the 50-50 over/under team kills to estimated kills for the team you would need to add a small margin like 0.6 as kills aren't normally distributed.

3. Do kills, assists and deaths seperately. What is a players kill percentage, what is the assists percentage (kill participation - kill percentage), what about death percentage?

4. Then multiply each of the above metrics with team kills (or team deaths) and sum up expected points.

Quote

08-07-2020 , 04:29 PM

#5177

NajdorfDefense

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 17,563

Hadn't bet on DK for 5 months, literally. Made a $20 and $35 PGA futures bet which were my limits on those players.

Today, can't bet anything on NBA, says account is restricted and I have to call. LOLWTFBBQZOMG

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08-07-2020 , 10:02 PM

#5178

TiltedDonkey

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 2,975

Yeah DK is a joke and I’m down to 1/8 normal limits on foxbet

Quote

08-09-2020 , 09:12 PM

#5179

ska55

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2019 Posts: 105

im kind of tired of using btc any advice on finding pph's? i assume i can use cash app or something similar w most of those guys

Quote

08-10-2020 , 03:16 AM

#5180

lvr

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 2,743

Quote:

Originally Posted by ska55

im kind of tired of using btc any advice on finding pph's? i assume i can use cash app or something similar w most of those guys

post on different sb forums with useful information and someone will eventually message you

Quote

08-10-2020 , 08:32 PM

#5181

NajdorfDefense

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 17,563

where's rsigley to tell me Nola's not a strikeout pitcher?

Aside from being busy winning lots of dough, I mean.

Quote

08-11-2020 , 10:12 AM

#5182

zplusz

banned

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 656

Quote:

Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense

where's rsigley to tell me Nola's not a strikeout pitcher?

Aside from being busy winning lots of dough, I mean.

It's just not deep enough into August yet for him. He needs those real late August dog days of humidity to preform well. His blood pumps better in it, due to the Celtic heritage

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08-11-2020 , 06:09 PM

#5183

NajdorfDefense

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 17,563

O'quinn on pace to put up a triple double gonna win somebody a ton of DFS money today.

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08-11-2020 , 08:17 PM

#5184

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

i had over on nola last two games. he's back

k's crushing this year too. got minor -102 on u6.5 and it's currently -201 so can't wait to lose that

marco gonzalez u5.5 -119 and -191 now

gallen -107 now -193

it was crazy the first couple weeks of the year when most of the pitchers were on strict pitch or innings counts that were below normal and getting pulled in the 4th

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08-11-2020 , 10:11 PM

#5185

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

classic MLB K's where you beat the lines by 100 cents and lose

Quote

08-12-2020 , 09:18 PM

#5186

Snipes

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 657

Quote:

Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley

classic MLB K's where you beat the lines by 100 cents and lose

idk y this made me lol so hard

Quote

08-13-2020 , 12:19 PM

#5187

rickroll

oddly catty

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 22,515

question about running simulations

very likely a dumb question.

can i run 500 sims or 1k sims multiple times and combine the results until I get 10k+?

say with golf, 4 rounds with 150+ golfers bricks my laptop and attempting it on the cloud with google sheets doesn't work either

i don't see why i couldn't run 500 sims 20 times etc but never see this mentioned so am wondering if there's an inherent problem with it

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08-13-2020 , 02:51 PM

#5188

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

It makes no difference, but some of you guys need to hire cheap labor to clean up your golf sims because 10k tournaments shouldn't take more than 5 minutes.

Quote

08-13-2020 , 03:59 PM

#5189

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,294

Yes use vectors and matrix operations in your code. Don't use loops. It took me years to figure that out how to do that but I'm an idiot programmer. Smart guy like you will learn fast. Then rent Amazon cloud computing power. They have disk images setup and ready to go. It's like renting a Lamborghini for pennies an hour.

https://www.louisaslett.com/RStudio_AMI/

Quote

08-13-2020 , 04:06 PM

#5190

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

i have my golf simulator running on a vps with only 1 gig of ram and its been running without being turned off for 8 years straight

i'm worried if i upgrade it will crash

Quote

08-13-2020 , 04:18 PM

#5191

Tuma

Worships Amon-Ra

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 16,390

Is there action on this forum for chess? There's a big match starting tomorrow, 7 game (4 each day) series between the worlds 2 best computer blitz players.

Quote

08-14-2020 , 11:20 AM

#5192

NajdorfDefense

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 17,563

Very hard to pick against Magnus in a best of 7.

Quote

08-14-2020 , 04:54 PM

#5193

Johnny_B

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 607

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tuma

Is there action on this forum for chess? There's a big match starting tomorrow, 7 game (4 each day) series between the worlds 2 best computer blitz players.

Quote:

Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense

Very hard to pick against Magnus in a best of 7.

gtfo nerds

Quote

08-16-2020 , 02:37 PM

#5194

NajdorfDefense

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 17,563

When sigley isn't posting his h2h soapbox derby 150 props, this is what thread is reduced to, sadly.

Magnus won Set 2, now it's a best of 5.

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08-20-2020 , 07:33 PM

#5195

smartDFS

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 1,703

If nothing else good comes from Covid, I guess all sort of natural experiments is one thing.

Can sharps speak to what they're seeing with home field advantage being baked into lines post-COVID? If I look at Week 1 NFL lines it appears some teams are getting the benefit of traditional 3pt HFA boost (MIN -3.5 vs GB stands out), but I doubt empty stadiums confer the same advantage?

Quote

08-20-2020 , 09:05 PM

#5196

rickroll

oddly catty

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 22,515

Quote:

Originally Posted by smartDFS

although i haven't officially looked at any numbers, it's pretty anecdotally noticeable in soccer/hockey/basketball thus far - hockey has been a bit surprising because the rules actually bake in a home team advantage so that should hold up stronger than in other sports even without the travel or fan influence over officiating

imagine the travel and stadiums able to pipe in noise to disrupt huddles (unsure but heard a rumor they can do this) could still be some factor

definitely worthwhile scraping soccer/nhl/nba and comparing to historical results

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08-20-2020 , 11:53 PM

#5197

smartDFS

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 1,703

interesting, thanks.

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08-21-2020 , 10:07 PM

#5198

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

yikes

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08-22-2020 , 03:39 AM

#5199

rickroll

oddly catty

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 22,515

Quote:

Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley

yikes

not insurmountable if your 1b gets 2hr apparently

Quote

08-26-2020 , 10:25 PM

#5200

ska55

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2019 Posts: 105

Trying my hand at boxing/UFC. I've essentially broken even but here we go.

Boxing:
Sunny Edwards -600 (BOL)
Sam Maxwell -140 (BOL)

UFC:
Impa Kasanganay -125 (5D)

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