Like many a great philosopher, Sigley prefers to live and breathe among the common man. He has all the resources to live any kind of life he wants and yet he still interacts with regular bettors/ non-savants, just as much as anyone.

I believe this passage from The Art of the Deal can add insight. (Bolded part added by me):

I understand.

Winning long term at sports is HARD. Why would you risk sharing that edge with your completion or people that could have a negative influence or impact that?

My comment wasn’t just aimed at Rsig, loads of you guys are doing great things but to be so ‘blasé’ about protecting it is perplexing.

Anyway, I only wish you the best, you do you, and never bet Paul Casey! 😂

Best of luck DNRS! Hopefully you run into me one day while I’m wearing diced pineapple apparel and you’ll know it’s that one guy you taught how to do logistic regression.

The guy survives cancer and COVID. It's interacting with sports bettors that knocks him out. Think about that.

this is a great opportunity for me to make a "defnotrsigleyisback" account and start selling picks

Just the degens that PM him for handouts.

Really appreciate the NASCAR & modeling help, sigs. Have picked up a number of modeling techniques/methods and how to apply them to various sports through your posts in these threads. "Use the past residuals for variance estimate" instead of normal distribution particularly sticks out but there are many others. Sad to hear the VegasDave customer base has infiltrated the premium slack channels to bug you for the real plays.

More bad news for the syndicate with the marlins outbreak. First few days of MLB have gone well, too.

Thanks for all the knowledge sigs. I know you will continue to crush it out there

the feels

Get some RSIF at 5dimes while it's hot in honor of rsigley.

Is it just me or is this the longest quarter of basketball I have ever seen in my life (Clippers/Lakers)? Maybe bc I have Clippers ML.

I can't bet it, they don't take my kind (Americans), but Bovada's odd/even is off on MLB. +120 even on 12.5 total game.

lol lasted longer than expected

cute there was so much love in the first few threads just to end up with one guy posting picks by himself

this forum never ceases to amaze me

even when he posted so much **** people were just too lazy to even learn some basic stuff

Rsigley was posting his projections for these and since he is now on sabbatical it makes sense to restart even though the season might get canceled at any moment. All Pinnacle prices. HR and TB prop. These were a small loser for me last season. I made adjustments during the offseason.

CWS Eloy Jimenez o1.5 +107
CWS Luis Robert o1.5 +133
KAN Adalberto Mondesi o1.5 +133
KAN Salvador Perez HR YES +430
KAN Ryan McBroom o0.5 -161
KAN Bubba Starling o0.5 -151
TBA Brandon Lowe o1.5 +119
CLE Oscar Mercado HR NO -757
HOU Martin Maldonado o0.5 -112
HOU Jose Altuve o1.5 +126
HOU George Springer o1.5 +125
HOU Alex Bregman o1.5 +139
HOU Carlos Correa o0.5 -177

Risking 21.58u. I'll do the rest later today.

BOS J.D. Martinez HR YES +351
NYY Gleyber Torres HR YES +304
NYY Gleyber Torres o1.5 +113
NYY Giancarlo Stanton HR YES +304
NYY Brett Gardner o0.5 -135
LAD Cody Bellinger HR YES +351
SDG Trent Grisham o1.5 +137
SDG Fernando Tatis Jr. HR YES +319
PIT Adam Frazier u1.5 -129
PIT Josh Bell u1.5 -123
PIT Bryan Reynolds u1.5 -152
OAK Ramon Laureano o1.5 +112
SEA Evan White o0.5 -166
TEX Joey Gallo HR YES +356

I knew TomG would come back to save this thread.

Daily: 9-14-4, -6.49u, 37.63u risked, -17.2% ROI
YTD: 9-14-4, -6.49u, 37.63u risked, -17.2% ROI

What hope is there to save this thread as I am Fredo Corleone compared to others in the crowdsouce syndicate family.

could be worse and I could start posting

tomg, you think there's any merit in converting winning dfs projections into h2h total base and k o/u prop betting?

been doing it for micro stakes and going to be a while to have any reliable sample of whether i suck at it

curious if that methodology is feasible, main concern is that a lot of the projection input is indeed vegas odds combined with real world numbers so it could be a bit of a feedback loop

If your methodology for beating DFS is using sportsbook odds, not sure how you are gonna beat the sportsbooks.
I have basically given up on being able to beat these aside from picking up on some weird lineup changes or weather elements that haven’t been accounted for.

It's not there complete picture but Vegas lines certainly influence the end result. I also import other projections into my own and I suspect that are having influenced by Vegas itself. I know for a fact that most season long fantasy projections use other season long projections as inputs and hence why there's not much differentiation between them and why when one bumps up or down a projection the others will adjust later to reflect that.

I'd say Vegas is no more than 30% influence in end result.

How does posting picks save a thread?

Isn't the point of this thread so people can LEARN how to do it instead of just taking advantage of others charitable nature?

Whilst I get your point, there a quite a few posts showing people have learnt and are learning from this thread.

A few posters are posting projection's in a few threads...

Yes because at worst you'll get a lot of valuable information on the quality of your DFS projections. If you can beat the prop markets then you can be confident you are working with a pretty good set of projections. If you lose then you know there is plenty of room for improvement. If everything lines up perfectly (unlikely) then indeed your projections are just Vegas odds.

Hi guys, hopefully this isn't too eSports for everyone but I'm looking for some guidance on improving my player projections for LoL DFS.
Essentially scoring is like this:

+3 Points per Kill
+2 Points per Assist (given to any player who helps in a kill, and there is no limit on number of teammates who can assist on a kill)
-1 Point per Death

Theres other stuff but this is what makes up 95% of scoring.

I have projections for a teams total kills and their likelihood of winning, as theyll only produce a useful score if they win.

Currently my projections are this, for each player:
1. Take their teams projected kill total (either from my model or Vegas)
2. Multiply that by a stat known as "kill participation", which is the number of kills + assists the player has over the course of the season divided by their teams season total for kills. I.e. if a player has a 75% kill participation they have a kill or an assist on 75% of their teams kills.
3. Multiply that number by 2 + the ratio of Kills / (Kills + Assists). Since Kills are 1 more point than Assists, this is just a way to approximate how much more often they get the kill than the assist given their stats on the season.
4. Subtract the expected number of deaths for the team multiplied by the players % of the teams deaths they account for the course of the season.
5(?). Multiply by likelihood of winning - Does this even make sense? In my head this is just an EV calculation of Score when they win * % chance they win, but maybe its baked into their projected kills already.

This is what I have right now, but I'm wondering if it might not be robust enough or might not not account for the outlier performances we're looking for to win GPPs.

Thanks for any input

@tomg just watched FLA & NYI both start their 4th lines in a playoff game... thought of nothing but your faceoff model - hope you stick with it

@jskelts - if i'm understanding it right, you're only doing projections if they win, this actually sounds really sharp because if they lose then whatever output they have is besides the point so good to isolate for only situations where they are useful and use the probability of winning as a modifier

i think you're in the same boat as me where you have a process that produces something that both seems to fit and has good results to beat the crowd and are suffering from imposter syndrome because it seems too simple

i'm sure there are ways to optimize and improve upon your process, but I'd solidly argue you're 90% of the way there and optimizing the rest is going to have increasingly diminishing returns

i wish i could help more on giving more concrete stuff but i think possibly trying to model your own kill line rather than using vegas is the next step in the process