Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting - Page 205 - Sports Betting

Two Plus Two Forums Sports and Games Sports Betting

Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Post Reply Subscribe

...

Page 205 of 297

First

5 105 155 185 195 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 215 225 255

Last

Page 205 of 297

First

5 105 155 185 195 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 215 225 255

Last

07-22-2020 , 06:15 PM

#5101

Sabaneta

adept

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 1,175

Quote:

Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley

pinnaclesports.com

it's a soft euro book

no real value on betbuilders opening K lines. unless you want to take scherzer over at big juice

must be betting before they show up in my db

Quote

07-22-2020 , 06:49 PM

#5102

dingeratic21

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 38

Quote:

Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley

i put some on the nuggets/wizards under once i saw their lineup. was looking good until the last couple of minutes

Man they really tampered with Troy Daniels' sliders but we escaped with the win.

Quote

07-23-2020 , 12:34 PM

#5103

Sabaneta

adept

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 1,175

We getting this big money today sigley?

Quote

07-23-2020 , 12:38 PM

#5104

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

already missed that $250 K opener money. disney vacation cancelled

Quote

07-23-2020 , 12:42 PM

#5105

rickroll

oddly catty

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 22,490

sab, forgive me if this is a dumb question but what is that software you're using

i'm tracking everything on excel and it's fairly apparent it'll no bueno for long term scaling

Quote

07-23-2020 , 12:43 PM

#5106

remlap

newbie

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 25

SFN/LAN u26 HRE (-105) is good I think (BM).

Quote

07-23-2020 , 12:50 PM

#5107

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

yep the BO u25 +115 lil better IMO

gerrit cole u7.5 on betbuilder +100 and kershaw +115 u5.5 look good too. have fair as 53.2% (-114) for cole and +107 for kershaw. disney vacation back on.

Quote

07-23-2020 , 12:54 PM

#5108

TheNonPareil

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 2,035

Bookmaker only $125 limit on K props though.. might need to downsize.

Last year they were really weirdly inconsistent with the limits so hopefully they raise them. A lot of times early in the day they would start low and increase throughout the day.

Quote

07-23-2020 , 12:59 PM

#5109

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

i skipped the opening because i was told to wait until the limits are 3k like real bettors and now everything is gone

why would a small prop market do that to us

gonna hold out that the cueto u3 +118 is still available when the 3k limits appear. got fair as +117. really going to push that 0.5634% edge for an approximately $18 expected profit.

Quote

07-23-2020 , 01:05 PM

#5110

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

btw if anyone is betting the "total bases (from hits)" prop that is popping up at some books i wouldn't use the expected number of tb.

lot of variance. for the 0.5 obviously use the yes/no hit %. will add calculations for o/u 1.5

Quote

07-23-2020 , 01:16 PM

#5111

rickroll

oddly catty

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 22,490

yeah just checked, it must be global limits cause i'm limited to 250ish on most mlb props and i've done nothing to warrant it, you figure they'd be offering me credit based on my betting history

Quote

07-23-2020 , 01:23 PM

#5112

hedgie43

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 1,308

Semi-related Bookmaker news is that it looks like normal withdrawal limits are back today.

Quote

07-23-2020 , 02:08 PM

#5113

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

i added a couple things

o/u hits allowed for pitchers

yes/no HR

added back yes/no SB since i see a lot of props for that

see a lot of value in the scherzer o4.5 hits +125

and trea turner SB +380

Quote

07-23-2020 , 02:21 PM

#5114

Fubster

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 8,949

Quote:

Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley

The total bases stat only includes bases from hits regardless

Quote

07-23-2020 , 02:30 PM

#5115

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

yea but i'm guessing books got tired of people complaining about walks so they added (From hits) to everything

" Juan Soto tests positive for coronavirus; out for Thursday opener."

bet WAS 5 minutes or so before the news. It's my fault for not listening to past me who said only bet ML's after official lineups released.

Last edited by fkjlhfdkjhkj.; 07-23-2020 at 02:39 PM.

Quote

07-23-2020 , 02:41 PM

#5116

DuckMe

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2019 Posts: 124

Quote:

Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley

Juice has moved a little bit since announced, but I hit the season under's for him (12.5 HR, 40.5 RBI) upon news.

Players need to get two negative tests to return. So minimum, the guy is missing the first 3 games of a 60-game schedule, possibly more? Soto is talented but needing to average an RBI/game is asking a lot.

Quote

07-23-2020 , 04:12 PM

#5117

TiltedDonkey

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 2,975

Did the projection cutoff the last batter from the Yankees. I only see 8

Quote

07-23-2020 , 04:14 PM

#5118

TiltedDonkey

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 2,975

Oh it came back never mind

Quote

07-23-2020 , 04:17 PM

#5119

TiltedDonkey

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 2,975

Cole U7.5 strikeouts at +110 has... 30% EV?

Quote

07-23-2020 , 04:19 PM

#5120

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

was probably in the middle of an update. there's some lag between when i update my projections and it appears there

gonna add something to indicate line ups are official (P) next to batter is projected. (O) is official

Quote

07-23-2020 , 04:20 PM

#5121

TiltedDonkey

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 2,975

This thing is awesome btw thanks for putting it up

Quote

07-23-2020 , 04:21 PM

#5122

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

Quote:

Originally Posted by TiltedDonkey

Cole U7.5 strikeouts at +110 has... 30% EV?

i'm assuming the big change is due to soto having a 20% strike out rate

stevenson i'm projecting for ~1.1 k's but he's 9th so he will get less AB

it was aligned with the market until i updated it for soto

trying to bet 3k on it but BM only accepting $250. almost the same as opening.

Quote

07-23-2020 , 04:48 PM

#5123

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

still working on public TB matrix but for BM matchups

Torres +103/Turner -103
Stanton -104/Kendrick +104
Urshela-139/Robles +139
Sanchez-138/Suzuki +138
Judge -180/Thames +180

I took Turner +110, Sanchez -115, Urshela -115, Judge -125 and -135

Judges has high variance due to the homerun thing

Quote

07-23-2020 , 04:56 PM

#5124

TheNonPareil

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 2,035

Quote:

Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley

You can get $250 on it? Didn't know they dealt duel lines, I can only bet $125 on K's still.

Only $125 on the total bases matchups too. How about you?