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Old 07-22-2020, 06:15 PM   #5101
Sabaneta
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
pinnaclesports.com

it's a soft euro book

no real value on betbuilders opening K lines. unless you want to take scherzer over at big juice
must be betting before they show up in my db



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Old 07-22-2020, 06:49 PM   #5102
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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i put some on the nuggets/wizards under once i saw their lineup. was looking good until the last couple of minutes
Man they really tampered with Troy Daniels' sliders but we escaped with the win.
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Old 07-23-2020, 12:34 PM   #5103
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

We getting this big money today sigley?

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Old 07-23-2020, 12:38 PM   #5104
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

already missed that $250 K opener money. disney vacation cancelled
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Old 07-23-2020, 12:42 PM   #5105
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

sab, forgive me if this is a dumb question but what is that software you're using

i'm tracking everything on excel and it's fairly apparent it'll no bueno for long term scaling
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Old 07-23-2020, 12:43 PM   #5106
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

SFN/LAN u26 HRE (-105) is good I think (BM).
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Old 07-23-2020, 12:50 PM   #5107
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

yep the BO u25 +115 lil better IMO

gerrit cole u7.5 on betbuilder +100 and kershaw +115 u5.5 look good too. have fair as 53.2% (-114) for cole and +107 for kershaw. disney vacation back on.
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Old 07-23-2020, 12:54 PM   #5108
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Bookmaker only $125 limit on K props though.. might need to downsize.

Last year they were really weirdly inconsistent with the limits so hopefully they raise them. A lot of times early in the day they would start low and increase throughout the day.
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Old 07-23-2020, 12:59 PM   #5109
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

i skipped the opening because i was told to wait until the limits are 3k like real bettors and now everything is gone

why would a small prop market do that to us

gonna hold out that the cueto u3 +118 is still available when the 3k limits appear. got fair as +117. really going to push that 0.5634% edge for an approximately $18 expected profit.
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Old 07-23-2020, 01:05 PM   #5110
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

btw if anyone is betting the "total bases (from hits)" prop that is popping up at some books i wouldn't use the expected number of tb.

lot of variance. for the 0.5 obviously use the yes/no hit %. will add calculations for o/u 1.5
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Old 07-23-2020, 01:16 PM   #5111
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

yeah just checked, it must be global limits cause i'm limited to 250ish on most mlb props and i've done nothing to warrant it, you figure they'd be offering me credit based on my betting history
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Old 07-23-2020, 01:23 PM   #5112
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Semi-related Bookmaker news is that it looks like normal withdrawal limits are back today.
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Old 07-23-2020, 02:08 PM   #5113
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

i added a couple things

o/u hits allowed for pitchers

yes/no HR

added back yes/no SB since i see a lot of props for that

see a lot of value in the scherzer o4.5 hits +125

and trea turner SB +380
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Old 07-23-2020, 02:21 PM   #5114
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
btw if anyone is betting the "total bases (from hits)" prop that is popping up at some books i wouldn't use the expected number of tb.

lot of variance. for the 0.5 obviously use the yes/no hit %. will add calculations for o/u 1.5
The total bases stat only includes bases from hits regardless
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Old 07-23-2020, 02:30 PM   #5115
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

yea but i'm guessing books got tired of people complaining about walks so they added (From hits) to everything

" Juan Soto tests positive for coronavirus; out for Thursday opener."

bet WAS 5 minutes or so before the news. It's my fault for not listening to past me who said only bet ML's after official lineups released.

Last edited by DefNotRsigley; 07-23-2020 at 02:39 PM.
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Old 07-23-2020, 02:41 PM   #5116
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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yea but i'm guessing books got tired of people complaining about walks so they added (From hits) to everything

" Juan Soto tests positive for coronavirus; out for Thursday opener."

bet WAS 5 minutes or so before the news. It's my fault for not listening to past me who said only bet ML's after official lineups released.
Juice has moved a little bit since announced, but I hit the season under's for him (12.5 HR, 40.5 RBI) upon news.

Players need to get two negative tests to return. So minimum, the guy is missing the first 3 games of a 60-game schedule, possibly more? Soto is talented but needing to average an RBI/game is asking a lot.
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Old 07-23-2020, 04:12 PM   #5117
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Did the projection cutoff the last batter from the Yankees. I only see 8
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Old 07-23-2020, 04:14 PM   #5118
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Oh it came back never mind
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Old 07-23-2020, 04:17 PM   #5119
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Cole U7.5 strikeouts at +110 has... 30% EV?
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Old 07-23-2020, 04:19 PM   #5120
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

was probably in the middle of an update. there's some lag between when i update my projections and it appears there

gonna add something to indicate line ups are official (P) next to batter is projected. (O) is official
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Old 07-23-2020, 04:20 PM   #5121
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

This thing is awesome btw thanks for putting it up
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Old 07-23-2020, 04:21 PM   #5122
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Cole U7.5 strikeouts at +110 has... 30% EV?
i'm assuming the big change is due to soto having a 20% strike out rate

stevenson i'm projecting for ~1.1 k's but he's 9th so he will get less AB

it was aligned with the market until i updated it for soto

trying to bet 3k on it but BM only accepting $250. almost the same as opening.
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Old 07-23-2020, 04:48 PM   #5123
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

still working on public TB matrix but for BM matchups

Torres +103/Turner -103
Stanton -104/Kendrick +104
Urshela-139/Robles +139
Sanchez-138/Suzuki +138
Judge -180/Thames +180

I took Turner +110, Sanchez -115, Urshela -115, Judge -125 and -135

Judges has high variance due to the homerun thing
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Old 07-23-2020, 04:56 PM   #5124
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
i'm assuming the big change is due to soto having a 20% strike out rate

stevenson i'm projecting for ~1.1 k's but he's 9th so he will get less AB

it was aligned with the market until i updated it for soto

trying to bet 3k on it but BM only accepting $250. almost the same as opening.
You can get $250 on it? Didn't know they dealt duel lines, I can only bet $125 on K's still.

Only $125 on the total bases matchups too. How about you?
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Old 07-23-2020, 04:59 PM   #5125
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

$125 on TB. I can only bet Ks once. An error pops up if I try to bet it a 2nd time. I can bet TB unlimited it seems.
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