yea I dunno about MLB this year. Betting MLB ML's has been my biggest moneymaker for the last 15 years, but I think I'm sitting out. I spent the last couple of weeks getting all my projections updated, etc., not really feeling it though.

I wouldn't be surprised if most of the players just half ass the season to get paid.

Some of the newer local books have been using this model. It could be fun if you can beat the books to a key pitching change. I remember “eyeing up” the Phillies when Scherzer broke his nose, but ended up being wasted time and energy. I guess bookmaker might frown upon this though?

They've had to deal with it in every other sport forever, but I won't be surprised if books start voiding legit bets based on news in this environment using Covid as an excuse.

I wonder if BM will still offer pitcher Ks and total bases props


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DNRS any chance we get a follow up on the logistic regression notes? Found it super useful. Led me to find a nice improvement for the RSIF table. I pass the output of the table + whether or not the game used designated hitters to a logistic regression. Improves out-of-sample likelihood versus just using the vanilla table(tm) (likelihood-ratio test gives p-value with a lot of zeros).

Anyway I thought your approach to the notes was novel and interesting. Otherwise at my current pace I should be done with the ESL book by 2025.

Numbers are the Universal language offered by the deity to humans as confirmation of the truth

OG St. Augustine.

RSIF thoughts:

These pitchers aren't getting a full spring training stretch and they're "starting" a season in late July heat. Think I'd be over anything historical models spit out.

lets get some more stats, we can actually work thru the new gelman book with sports data that would be cool

i'm setting this up for MLB for the SYNDICATE then have free time.

from the squad that changed table tennis and bull riding tracking forever

the game changers who exposed russian video game corruption

real time prop calculation. line-up changes? my projections change? props will update



total base matrix? every player vs. every player?



hrr head to head matrix? not pictured coming soon
and same for all the pitcher props

on a convenient website
with lines
and automatically calculating edge
and historical tracking
and hre
and rsif

no my ML and total predictions tho. i need to keep some money for myself

Curious are you doing full game ML’s or derivatives first 5, etc.?

I preordered that book, count me in if you ever decide to do it. Gelman must be an OG.

Not sure if I'm more excited for the TomG 2.0 matrix automated or motorsportsodds.com. Can TheMatrix(patent pending) possibly outperform the Nascar chart?

Hi Guys,

Really like what you re doing here. I am a 40yo old guy who used to play tons of poker , got sick of it and now want to dedicate most of my fee time to sports betting. I am not a newby, been betting on soccer and basketball for 20 years with a lot of success, but poker was more important unf. I dont have perm job , used to work for huge energy trader, now have my own physical energy trading business that takes about 2 hours a day of my time. Meaning i can dedicate myself to other things, basically gambling as this is my main interest. I was always obsesses with odds and beating the bookies, large accumulators, risky bets that break the books. 7 days ago i won a soccer bet with odds 72/1 where i bet 100 euros on 72/1 4 game accumulator and it won for almost 9000 euros with bookies bonuses. These are the type of bets i like , big bets on big odds, or bigger bets like 2k euros on 4-6/1 odds.
I see this is mostly MLB, i cant relate to it much , i only bet on NBA, european basketball and european soccer. Would love to be a part of your syndicate in any way i can and contribute to destroying the bookies.

cheers,
Stev

Edit: a little bit about my betting style. I choose the combination of statistics and feel to choose my bets. Most people rely too heavy on stats, bet on favrites and small odds way too much and they lose too often on one game surprises which happen all the time, i choose to look for good odds , seek value in them and have balls to choose some unconventional bets like draw, combinations of homewins + golas scored, basically looking for average odds of around 3.3/1 . The latest huge win of 9000 euros i found odds of 6/1 in one of the games which completely made sense and should have been around 3/1 , a combo of away win with away team scoring 2 goals+ (result was 1-4). another was on heavy favorite not conceeding a goal. The odds on outright win at home was 1.7 and on a win without conceeding a goal was 3/1 (result was 2-0)! its these kind of things iam looking for, i never bet on small odds and in my system with odds around 60/1 to 100/1 i can afforde to lose many times before i hit and make all of it back and more, and you cant believe how close half of these bets get, like missing by one goal is almost every 3nd-4th bet. Obviusly i look at the market, when there is no cca 70/1 bt that i like, i will choose 15-20/1 bets too.

by "feel" i dont mean looking at the stars obviousy.

i like following games today, all English 2nd league but Norwich game: Total accumulator 200/1 ...obviously difficult to win all, but some very poor teams there and others no motivation to score. Fulham game i see some value in those odds on home win.

fulham - sheff. w. Home win @ 1,95

Hull - Luton Total goals not more then 1 @ 3,6

Middles.-Cardiff Total goals not more then 1 @ 2,95

QPR - Millwall Total goals not more then 1 @ 3.45

Norwich - Burnley Total goals not more then 1 @ 2.85

always done my own ML. baseball ML and basic strategy teasers when they couldn't lose and books offered +100/-100 on them without shading is how i made all my money and built a bankroll which gave me the freedom to not work and build models for all the other sports. baseball is the gift that keeps giving every year

Totenhem Leicester Away win and 4+ goals @ 9/1

Man United Chelsea Away win and 4+ goals @ 8/1

accumuatror 70/1

BC i like what you're sharing and bet soccer myself so I'm personally interested in any insights you're sharing

however, while it's cool to share and contribute and all but unless you have a specific process based off something scientific it's best to put this specifically in the soccer betting thread https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/4.../index136.html

or start your own thread like I did https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/4...-lols-1771541/

contributions are very welcome here, but this is very much so a model centric thread - hence why i moved my esports stuff elsewhere because it's based on reads

but... if you do continue to post picks here, you absolutely need to include results in both win-loss and units won-loss, you can find some earlier posts for a good template

in fact, you just inspired me to post some soccer stuff and help revive that thread as covid kind of killed it

ha i see, ok, i will move to soccer thread then and post win/lose results

I am interested in some kind of investment pool for betting all kinds of sports , and sharing tips (actually i am not sure what exactly i want) , i tought this is somewhat relevant but i see i slightly missed the topic.

Most of the autists in this thread use some type of mathematical model. But that's not strictly necessary here. All that is needed to join and participate in this first ever fully crowdsourced sports betting syndicate is a desire for self-improvement. I always tell people, in this racket there are lots of ways to win. And even more ways to lose.

Also a deep commitment to anti-racism

what exactly does a crowdsourced sports betting syndicate mean?

And all this time I thought I killed the soccer thread.
Thanks for clearing my conscious.
Once again, you've proven a true virtual friend.

I remember Thremp [and myself] telling an OG syndicate member to stop drunkenly yelling racist remarks in the middle of the urban area we were walking through...we were not happy with the non-zero chance of getting murdered that evening.

Good times.

These MLB Exhibition lines are moving like its Sunday NFL. Pent up demand. lol