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Old 07-04-2020, 12:18 PM   #5026
DefNotRsigley
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

looks like she on pace for 50. maybe she will slow down since the person closest to her is 70 years old
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Old 07-04-2020, 12:19 PM   #5027
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Miki GOAT, her over is a lock imo but now regretting betting Joey under
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Old 07-04-2020, 12:23 PM   #5028
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

blew the lock of the year by trying to get cute and middle. we aren't recession proof
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Old 07-04-2020, 12:56 PM   #5029
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

72 with 30 seconds left. never in doubt
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Old 07-04-2020, 01:04 PM   #5030
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Easier to eat indoors where it's not 95 degrees. fwiw.
easy winner on overs
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Old 07-04-2020, 03:49 PM   #5031
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

that 75th was such a sham, shoulda been 74.5 or 74 imo
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Old 07-08-2020, 02:21 PM   #5032
DefNotRsigley
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

rip Caesars sportsbooks. With the eldorado take over now going thru all the books will be switching over to William Hill.

Caesars wasn't the best, but they did open Tampa XFL wins at 7.5 so we need to respect them for that. And of course more variety is better.

7* was nice and easy to get off horse racing too. With their promotions it was 6% rakeback
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Old 07-08-2020, 05:10 PM   #5033
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Old 07-09-2020, 01:43 PM   #5034
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Sigs thanks a lot for the building your first scraper run down. As someone who has been meaning to learn python/php/databases/etc for years it is very useful!

This might be a dumb question but as someone who has never bet on bookmaker (just view lines and now scrape them to db), do they offer other props that aren't viewable on the normal website or lines.bookmaker.eu? I always hear people talk about bookmaker props but the only time I can remember seeing any listed were for the Super Bowl.
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Old 07-10-2020, 09:25 AM   #5035
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

BM has props but they don't show up in their feed for some reason. I'm guessing they have a different platform or add them manually. For MLB/NFL they offered them every game. NBA/NHL is some games and all the playoffs. Don't follow soccer but I ntoiced they have the generic ones like total cards, corners, etc.

Their live lines don't show up either which stinks
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Old 07-10-2020, 11:39 AM   #5036
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Gotcha thx
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Old 07-10-2020, 08:01 PM   #5037
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Is there a general statistical test you could use to convince yourself model A is better than B (in the absence of years and years of historical odds)?

Let's say you're doing RSIF. Model A just sets every game 50/50. Model B is the table™. I have tried comparing mean logloss for out-of-sample data. No matter how you split the train/test data B's logloss outperforms A, but only slightly. Model A gets mean logloss 0.693 and B gets 0.692. Looking at it this way doesn’t seem very convincing, but yet we know table™ kills. So just naively comparing mean log loss is wrong.

One idea I’ve tried is to make model A the book and B the bettor. When model A sets the lines, B always ends up winning (i.e. no matter how you randomly split train/test) with a simple "flat bet if +EV" strategy.

Any ideas on better ways of comparing models?

Last edited by DicedPineapples; 07-10-2020 at 08:22 PM.
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Old 07-11-2020, 01:05 PM   #5038
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

I think you're on the right track, but need the years of data & odds. For this example I'd compare each model's predicted % for RSIF to actual % to test if model is better than the vig. The table(tm) should be based on historical, so a 6.5 run total should hit no 58% of the time where the 50/50 model would set it at 50%. You'd even beat dk gpp rake at this winrate! If they set it at something like Yes +130 / No -150 we'd have no opportunity.

You can then do the same with the book odds. Based on the vig-free price, how often does the book expect RSIF to happen vs. how often it actually does for a second table.

Found this article re: bayesian odds, props for TDs if it helps.

https://towardsdatascience.com/creat...n-b3896f19a588
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Old 07-11-2020, 03:11 PM   #5039
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Iím talking more generally about a statistical test like:

H0: Models A and B are equally calibrated
H1: One model outperforms the other

P-value = ...

So far Iíve found F-tests, still trying to understand why they work. The gist of them is that you can test if the difference between two RSS is statistically significant.
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Old 07-11-2020, 10:37 PM   #5040
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Alright I think I found what I'm looking for. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilks%27_theorem

Wrote a program with two models. One model knows the true probability of an event occuring (assume 0.4 <= p <= 0.6 for each event). Another model just sets p = 0.5 for each event.

The dumb model gets mean log loss of 0.693 while the "oracle" model gets 0.687. Not exciting. So even knowing the exact probability only changes mean log loss very very slightly.

However, in that link above likelihood-ratio test works great. It tells me the oracle model is better than the 50/50 model with p-value=0.0000... Here's the code https://pastebin.com/raw/6mHVtwqy

Under some assumptions, the likelihood-ratio is distributed by chi-squared. I assume 1 degree of freedom per game total used in the table(tm). Does that seem reasonable, or is there an even more baller hypothesis test I can do?
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Old 07-12-2020, 09:17 AM   #5041
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

I'm hoping to build something specifically for 5Dimes that pings me every time new lines are posted for LoL. Technically its super straightforward but I dont know if theres an API or something that I can use to look for live lines - anyone have any experience with this?
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Old 07-12-2020, 09:54 AM   #5042
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
rip Caesars sportsbooks. With the eldorado take over now going thru all the books will be switching over to William Hill.

Caesars wasn't the best, but they did open Tampa XFL wins at 7.5 so we need to respect them for that. And of course more variety is better.

7* was nice and easy to get off horse racing too. With their promotions it was 6% rakeback

Oh wow this is terrible. You would think with the merger it wouldíve been the other way around and they would switch everything to Caesarís.

Not big Caesarís fan but having another option is always good. Also WH is the worst.
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Old 07-12-2020, 04:09 PM   #5043
DicedPineapples
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

One simple way to do it on 5d without access to their feed is to use their "dynamic lines" tab. This page updates with you having to refresh. I used to just paste some javascript (on chrome: right click->inspect element->console) that would filter the table for just the bets that I was interested in. Would then just leave 5d on another screen and wait for table to get rows. Here's the code

setInterval(()=>{$('td:first-child').parent('tr:not(:contains(" 5 points"), :contains(" scores first"), :contains(" scores last"))').hide()}, 1000);

You could probably modify it to text message you once a new row element comes up using one of those text message api's. You'll have to get a chrome extension that modifies the cross-origin header since by default browsers blocks web requests to external sites.
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Old 07-12-2020, 09:11 PM   #5044
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
rip Caesars sportsbooks. With the eldorado take over now going thru all the books will be switching over to William Hill.

Caesars wasn't the best, but they did open Tampa XFL wins at 7.5 so we need to respect them for that. And of course more variety is better.

7* was nice and easy to get off horse racing too. With their promotions it was 6% rakeback
Sucks.

More variety is always better and (AFAIK) they're one of the only places to give tier/reward credits for betting sports. Was an easy way to make Diamond and get free rooms.
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Old 07-12-2020, 09:17 PM   #5045
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

I use this to calculate the difference between two distributions i generate for a player

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kolmog...93Smirnov_test

How do I test which is better? That's a little harder. I tend to look at the residuals between predicted + actual. Sample size is always an issue. For golf I look at it on the rounds level but they only play 4 rounds/week. So it might take months to really get anything.

Baseball they play everyday, but the sport in general is so high variance.

And then you run into issues where model A may be good for player X but bad for player Y whereas model B may be good for vice versa and then which is "correct".
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Old 07-13-2020, 12:09 AM   #5046
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Stations gives tier and rewards for sports.
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Old 07-13-2020, 12:52 AM   #5047
DicedPineapples
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

KS test seems like black magic. Pretty neat you only need to look at the maximum difference between two cdfs to tell that two samples are drawn from the same dist. I'm sure it works, but I def need to run some simulations before my conscience can accept this.

Is the idea to test whether your forecasts vs observed values are coming from the same distribution.
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Old 07-13-2020, 01:34 PM   #5048
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
Since I started tracking table tennis on 5/29 there's been 6707 matches for ~516 matches a day. How do we get in on this. Anyone have any ideas where to get stats?

Bookmaker has also started offering bull riding taking the place of The Greek offering obscure sports. I hope they bring back PBA Saturdays betting.
https://betsapi.com/le/8869/Liga-Pro ? maybe

They seem to have kept some history.

Last edited by TiltedDonkey; 07-13-2020 at 01:34 PM. Reason: That link is for the moscow liga specifically but they have other leagues as well
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Old 07-14-2020, 02:38 AM   #5049
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

anyone know if pinnacle dropped table tennis?
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Old 07-16-2020, 10:43 AM   #5050
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

So it looks like BM, WG and SP are all doing away with listed pitchers this year. All bets have action at the price you bet at no matter the pitcher change. Others haven't confirmed yet.

Also BM is not doing the full game bets being official at 4.5 to 5 innings like always, they have changed it to 8.5 to 9 innings for official game. I haven't seen if any LV books are doing this also.
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