LOL they do look like 2 overgrown kids playing dress up with daddies clothes in daddies office. Even their faces say “look confident! See nothings weird here. Just two men doing business things in our business clothes!”

hey guys, wondering you calculate variance, i'm beginning to get into things in earnest and trying to figure out at which point to submit and fade a sport/category and vice versa when to increase the bet size until the respect my units

in some areas i'm doing pretty well, others not so much, overall down 6 units on 469.17 wagered and that feels like a non issue for someone just playing around and learning at lol unit sizes but given the expertise here in the thread i figure it's always good to do a line check

if anyone has any formulas, calculators, websites or even discouraging statements pointing out my naive insolence it's all greatly appreciated

I don’t think you can calculate in the traditional sense because an event only happens once and when they play again, it’s not under identical conditions. That’s why a lot of times trend stats are useless. Some of them are fine but the underpinning for them is usually a bad match-up and not some mystical unexplainable trend.

There’s two easy methods to compare

1) closing line value. Compare the line you bet vs. closing line, calculate edge vs it, plot your profit vs. EV and do a statistical test to compare the distributions (e.g., Kolmogorov–Smirnov). Cons: Assumes the market is efficient at closing, can also cause issues when books take “stands” and don’t really move even if they’re getting one sided action. Books really don’t exist to get equal action on both sides and collect vig. Most of them are sports bettors themselves. The Bookmaker lines maker did a bunch of podcasts recently and explains how they approach the market.

2) Edge and EV vs. your model. I prefer this approach. If you’re using a mathematical model, you should be able to calculate your edge and EV vs. bet. For example, a bet I made today was Tyrell Hatton +112 over Ancer and Hatton +109 over Ancer both for 5k. I have Hatton a small favorite in this (51.9%) so at +112 that’s a 10.664% edge and should expect to return $535.71 based on how much I bet.
The +109 has a 9.098% edge and should expect to return $455.64.

Obviously those aren’t options. Either I’m winning $5450 at +109 and $5600 at +112 or losing 10k (or pushing). but I can plot all my golf bets EV vs. actual and after a time they should be close. You can do the same tests to calculate difference between distributions (Expected vs. actual) to see if what you’re seeing is accurate.

Not to **** on datagolf because I think they’re smart modelers, just not good bettors, but look at their betting log.

https://datagolf.com/betting-results

All bets: Expected value: 112.5, Profit: 7.6 over 1086 bets.

Either they’re the unluckiest people ever or their way over estimating their edge. This isn’t a one-time thing. They’ve posted their bets for several years and while they’re small winners every year , they’re also running way below EV. This is worse because they’re using Kelly staking and overestimating your edge there can lead to ruin. You're going to see swings of course. There's a graph I posted somewhere in this massive thread which I can't find around July where after almost a thousand Pitcher K prop bets I actually was exactly at my EV. There was something crazy like a 12 cent difference between them. Also at the end of every season my EV on runs scored in first, HRE, full game money lines, etc. are all really close to the actual value.

Sample size is always an issue, but comparing your model EV vs. your profit is probably the best metric. If you're just betting based on some qualitative metric or a hybrid then it's impossible IMO.

thank you for your thoughtful response, it's given me a lot to think about, especially that I'm way too vague on my system especially since a lot of it has been live betting based on draft performance and my russian short league which is way too simple (project an o/u of 12 here and the line is 10.5 so I bet the o)

had a pretty good day, officially up 13.54 units on 555.36 wagered now w00t

genuinely appreciate this kind of feedback, tells me I'm only going into this skin deep and need to get into it a lot more to really quantify what that o/u 12 projection means for unit size etc

if you can't calculate your edge then everything else is pointless

Cmon man, there’s plenty of profitable sportsbettors that can’t quantify their edge.

Datagolf....

define successful and plenty

I have seen some that have had success but it always ends up in a guessing game where they don't know if they are losing/runningbad

However you wanna define it. Enough to live off of ramen noodles over 1000 bets? 5000 bets?

I’ve bet plenty of small markets using rudimentary math.

Just avoid Kelly staking (which isn’t an issue in small markets where it’s just max, max, max) so you don’t overbet your perceived edge.

But, Joey tells TMZ Sports come July 4 -- thanks to the competition being moved indoors without fans 'cause of COVID-19 -- he's primed for a record-shattering performance.
"There's a little bit of a bonus 'cause we're gonna be eating in air conditioning and they're less eaters, so they're making less hot dogs so they might taste better," Chestnut says.
"There's a good chance that we might have better conditions for a world record and I'ma be pushing for it."


We have to hammer o71.5 in this spot? Qualitative analysts what do you think?

Thought Joey Chestnut had some jaw injuries.

Feel like the hot completion especially a year like this provides great opportunities for middles.

been looking at this myself
my book has 72.5

he's gotten
71
74
72
70
60
61
69
68
62

maybe i have a bad line but i wan leaning to the under, especially with that at +115 vs -142

How often does a game total of 12 go over 10.5 in this league? Compare that to the odds and you'll get an estimated ROI. Then if actual results are in line with expected results you can size your bets accordingly. Or maybe they're directionally correct but you're over-estimating edge and flat bets work better for the market.

Continuing a bit from the Nascar thread here, you can estimate edge in DFS cash games with a similar process. For win-rate in H2H I assume a normal distribution, take the difference in player projections and divide by the standard deviation to get a z-score. This can be converted into an approximate win-rate. With all unique players and a projection of 100 vs. 95 and st. dev of 20 for example, you'd expect to win ~60% of games. STdev of lineup changes though depending on shared players so this is a pretty simplified example. Key questions is: are your H2H opponents at higher stakes playing lower projected lineups than low stakes opponents?

I updated the BM parser to explain how to add spreads

http://crowdsourcesyndicate.info/Mom...stScraper.html

Now you can add any sport you want. NFL, NBA, Rugby League, Bull Riding, Soccer

Also added all the eSports currently on BM, Aussie League Football, non USA baseball, and sport simulations to the file.

Just name your BM_() same as the variable after $connection in the parseH2HMatchups function. (e.g., for esports BM_eSports and then change all the ID's except one for ESPORTS - we should probably fix this all to be consistent before we get in too big)

See once you have a structure down, adding new sports is trivial.

Wasn't sure if I should share this as it can crush a huge edge, but we are all friends. Use wisely.

Amazing--I think Fitzmagic is my favorite part

that's gold jerry, gold!

diced pineapples how many IPs can you get

after 10 years my betonline scraper got IP banned and they banned the entire public xml file

http://livelines.betonline.ag/sys/Li...asp?sport=Golf

would be an example (now it's forbidden)

so i wrote a traditional scraper on a box with a new IP

within 2 days

IP banned



i always think it's stupid for books to do this. betonline for some reason has moved into taking decent sizes bets and moved away from the euro model. wouldn't you want people to have easy access to your lines?

So if you need a big pool of IPs the simplest thing is to use mobile IP addresses. As soon as your phone loses signal, you get a new IP address once you get reconnected. So you can basically get unlimited IPs that way. Just try checking your mobile IP, cycle airplane mode, and check your IP again.

For my work, I build bots that use these Netgear LTE modems exactly for that purpose.

https://www.amazon.com/NETGEAR-LTE-M...3240295&sr=8-2

I have so many of these little boxes. Netgear loves me, I'm their favorite customer.

You just stick a sim card in (they claim it only works with AT&T, but I've had no problems using Verizon) and you get an ethernet cord that you can plug into any computer. Probably simplest in your case would be a raspberry pi. I just have a script that periodically reboots these modems every so often by making some HTTP requests into the admin interface of this thing, and this gets me a fresh IP.

From there you probably just want a simple bash script to wget every so often and use the linux scp thing to send that file over to some remote server.

There's also various proxy services that offer rotating proxies. So they give you a fixed proxy address to use, but the actual IP that gets used to hit betonline is constantly changing. That's probably the easiest solution.

Some of these services are kind of shady. They basically pay a bunch of random app developers to put their code into their apps to make a botnet.

Someone actually wrote a research paper about how shady these services are.

https://www-users.cs.umn.edu/~fengqi...rpaas_sp19.pdf

Realize the IP bans are the main problem but this should get you the xml feed access back.

damn thanks. lets get it

if anyone wants to add it to our scraper

here's the code

https://pastebin.com/JiqJxh8W

the output is json so slightly different.

easy way is just create 4 new tables in our BM_Golf database called BOGOLF_FT_MATCHUPS, BOGOLF_FT_SPREAD, BOMatchup, BOTournaments

then just change the insert functions to be:

$connection->query("INSERT INTO BM_" . $sport . ".BOMatchup (id" . $sport . ", Player1, Player2, startDate, startTime, rotationid) VALUES ('$TournamentID', '$P1ID', '$P2ID', '$eventDate', '$eventTime', '$rotationid')");

Other way to go around it is add a column to all the tables for book and just pass in a BO variable and a 'BM' variable. That's probably the better approach.