tilt betting

BOS A.Benintendi hits+runs+RBI +125 5dimes

risking 1u

over piscotty

after today's disaster with betonline it's obvious how bad this syndicate need someone who knows their betting shops. 10+ years in this industry betting with locals makes you probably the single most qualified person for the role so i'm pleased to name you our head shopkeeper.

when you do your nhl props, please copy and paste all your mlb player props into this thread and the analysts will get to work on them.

welcome board.

Altuve was locked into a 1-1 tie with Andrus late in the game. We were about to robbed out of our PUSH by the unfair rules at BetOnline when Altuve singed in his last at-bat to put us ahead. It was a lucky win for sure but I can't say it was undeserved given who was on the other side of the bet. Gambling on baseball has a way of dispensing justice.


Daily: 3-0-2, +3.25u
YTD: 5-0-2, +5.25u, 8.77u risked, +59.9% ROI

hey buddy welcome aboard and thanks for offering. i'll have our head shopkeeper take a look at your post. he's the person who can best evaluate your outs. my impression is that a widely available, sharp shop that doesn't have mlb player props isn't a priority at the moment although in this business things are always changing.

Nice day yesterday to begin to turn things around. We really dug ourselves a big hole to climb out of. It's all about the long run though and eventually we will get out.

Last night I was sitting in the sportsbook capping some late night races, getting in on some early MLB overnight lines, and checking up on my bets when my stomach started hurting. I thought it was the chicken salad from the Vig Deli at the M Resort (wouldn't be the first time), but I glanced up at the TV's and saw Bryant was AB in the top of the 9th. I checked the box score and saw he had 0 TB's and so did Freeman, so we were essentially free rolling. Then I remembered, TomG was on the other side. If I win that means he loses, so indirectly I also lose. I prayed that Bryant wouldn't get a hit (it helped that I had ATL ML) and thankfully the prayer was answered and we got a push. I know in the future we will be on opposite sides again as TomG is using THE BAT for his projections and I'm using in-house developed proprietary TomG Total Bases v3.2 (BETA) for mine. It's inevitable they will have disagreements in the future as they are using different cutting edge technologies to produce their lines. I'm hoping this will get easier in the future.

Who saw Kluber's meltdown for our only total bases loss coming??

Total Bases:

Pham +100 over Arenado WIN +1
Ramirez -125 over Abreu LOSS -1.25
Belt -105 over Bellinger WIN +1
Bryant -115 over Freeman PUSH
Betts -125 over K. Davis WIN +1

Yesterday: 3-1-1 +1.75u
Total: 3-4-3 -1.6u

Strikeouts:

Marquez K u7.5 -105 WIN +1
Peralta K o5.5 -140 WIN +1
Lucchesi (SDN) K o5.5 -125 WIN +1
Boyd (DET) K u4.5 +120 LOSS -1 (13 K's, really?)
DeGrom K (NYN) o8.5 -125 WIN +1
Mike Minor K o4 +100 WIN +1
Miles Mikolas K o4 -115 LOSS -1.15
Gerritt Cole K u8 -115 LOSS -1.15

Yesterday: 5-3 +1.7
Total: 7-10 -4.4


Today (K's later):
Baez -120 over Acuna Jr (TheGreek)
J. Soto -115 over M. Conforto (5d/TheGreek)
J. Ramirez -135 over Drury (5d/TG)
M. Trout -135 over N. Mazara (5d/TG)

These are also available at various vegas places!

See if this were an actual privately run syndicate, our conflicting Bryant/Freeman total bases wager from yesterday would be a problem. I'd get defensive over my projections and question Rsig's for going Bryant+Braves (game within the game, does this really make sense?). We'd have to consult other members and have a vote, factions would be created, and hard feelings all around. But because this is Crowdsource Syndicate we both just make our wagers and go on with our days. You tell me what system works better?

Today we agree.

J. Ramirez -135 over Drury Greek

Risking 1.35u

In this case I'd have to say game within game we can disregard because I was only able to get 2 $230 bets on Bryant down in Vegas and had about 50x that on the Braves ML. Though they were favorites and Cubs being udogs with Bryant could make a compelling case to activate the game within the game.

As the season goes on and we get more data relying less on our preseason projections, I wonder if THE BAT and TomG Total Bases v3.2 (BETA) will think more alike.

Let us get these early morning K props boys. I found these on the BetOnline/5D Bet Builder and surprisingly also available at Boyd Gaming (theirs were -115 before the Syndicate got to them, but the prices below are still available at those online sites the Syndicate is banned from)!

Stephen Strasburg (WAS) u7 -114
Jake Junis (KCA) o5.5 -114
James Paxton (NYA) u7.5 -114

I'll be setting up shop at the Westgate today if anyone wants to split a Philadelphia Cheesesteak. I get it without peppers but you can ask for a side of them if you would like them on your half. I only eat once a day because of OMAD, so the meal will be around 4pm. I have my own desk there in the racebook and we can grind it out together until then.

Early-afternoon K (if any!) when lineups are posted.

I have multiple locals that I could bet these props with. However, they only post player props close to game time (eg 1 hr before game)

Is there still potential value?

got a local who takes these with 20c lines

J. VOTTO (CIN) TB -115
S. MARTE (PIT) TB -105


K. BRYANT (CUB) TB -110
F. FREEMAN (ATL) TB -110


J. BAEZ (CUB) TB -120
R. ACUNA (ATL) TB EV


W. MERRIFIEL (KC) TB -120
N. CASTELLA (DET) TB EV


A. JUDGE (NYY) TB -125
T. MANCINI (BAL) TB +105


M. BETTS (BOS) TB -142
K. DAVIS (OAK) TB +116


B. DRURY (TOR) TB +105
J. RAMIREZ (CLE) TB -125


N. MAZARA (TEX) TB +105
M. TROUT (LAA) TB -125

If the lines are good 1 hour before there's always value. Need to get yourself a real book though that isn't afraid to take chances.

All those lines posted are significantly better than widely available ones. You can probably make money just blindly betting them.

Got an early split on K's with Strasburg K'ing everyone except Cano.

B. Anderson (OAK) K o3 -130
Trevor Bauer (CLE) u7.5 +127
A a ron Sanchez (TOR) o4.5 +110
Tyler Mahle (CIN) o4.5 +110
Yu Darvish (CHN) o6 +110
Max Fried (ATL) o5.5 -103
E. Rodriguez (BOS) K u5.5 +110

These are all available on the BetOnline/5D/Ladbrokes/etc. Bet Builder

those are great lines, kc417. keep posting them and one of our in-house analysts will review them. we like j.ramirez at that price

Last value I see tonight

Edinson Volquez (TEX) o3.5 +100

Also TomG inspired me to look for these type of bets and I found a couple on 5D

K. Bauers (CLE) hits+runs+RBI -155 over J. Smoak
R. Grichuk (TOR) hits+runs+RBI +105 over T. Naquin

Maybe we can organize a symposium on the proper conversion of THE BAT numbers to props like this and o/u h+r+RBI, etc.

Late bets

Mazara +125 over Trout 5d/Greek
Nomar Mazara HRR o1.5 -120 Poogs ABC Island clone
Ender Inciarte HRR o1.5 -120 Poogs ABC Island clone

Risking 3.4u

Mazara is not in the lineup. Hopefully ABC Island clone has a good policy about players who don't start.

omg you bet on a guy who isnt in the lineup!?! I remember getting absolutely killed on here for that last time we did this, G. You and your chat room friends all ganged up on me.

But thats all in the past. This is a fun idea and its interesting you guys/us feeding the bottom feeders. Now I can leave some crumbs for them instead of being one and trying to ingest every single crumb!

I may have some late hockey plays for you guys. My nhl player points model is still doing excellent. Once the playoffs start ill hopefully be posting a ton. If any of you guys follow me and we run hot I will expect some venmo tips. JK!

BTW, rsigly, that story you posted early in the thread was pure gold. I would love to read more stuff like that. Would LOVE to. I can post some fun things like that too. Maybe we can start another thread where we post fun gambling stories. I have more than a few as you can probably imagine, dealing with Boston locals who pretend to be "mobbed up" and who STILL take correlated parlays. Or "illegal bets" as they say.

Anyway, its fun to "be back." Sorry I yelled at you wiper. But I didnt like what you said about me.

And hi to all the lurkers! We were at the top, got knocked down a little bit and now we rise back up, stronger than ever.

In the world that I want to live in, you wrote that entire post just to get in the one little shot on hbob. <3

you know it became a thing to gang up on you and i went along with it even though i should know better. that was wrong of me and unfair toward you. i'm trying to be a better person and it actually feels great. i now look forward to coming to work at this syndicate every day whereas other betting syndicates are full of jealousy and backbiting.

we need you here more often though. you have responsibilities here as our head shopkeeper.

ok i will try to post them every day if i can

well thank you I guess

Bets for wpg/col which starts in 2 seconds:

Mark scheifele -190 points vs Soderberg

Mark scheifele -180 goals vs Soderberg

tyson barrie -150 points vs Trouba

wheeler -120 points vs Mark Scheifle

laine +105 goals vs Mackinnon

Mackinnon -180 goals vs Soderberg

Jets more PIM -115



Ill post earlier next time

Bets for ARZ vs Vegas

Marchessault -190 goals vs Clayton Keller

Karlsson -210 points vs brad richardson

Galchenyuk +110 goals vs Keller

Mark Stone -230 points vs Rich Panik



LOTTA CHALK

We make progress in one end but struggle on the other. I read an article that said K's are up this year, maybe they are un-juicing the balls?? Regardless, it will all fix itself as I have faith in TGTB v3.2 (BETA). I did notice the projections for K's today a little higher than usual, so maybe it is learning. Guess we will find out when we see the lines. I've been up since 5am (aka 45 minutes ago) pouring over the data and early Total Bases lines to offer you the best.

Strikeouts:
Stephen Strasburg (WAS) u7 -114 LOSS -1.14
Jake Junis (KCA) o5.5 -114 WIN +1
James Paxton (NYA) u7.5 -114 LOSS -1.14
B. Anderson (OAK) K o3 -130 PUSH
E. Rodriguez (BOS) K u5.5 +110 WIN +1.1
Trevor Bauer (CLE) u7.5 +127 LOSS -1 (Almost had this one, didn't count on a guy coming into the 7th inning after throwing 100 pitches and then striking out the side. Enjoy the inevitable Tommy John surgery as a result of this.)
A a ron Sanchez (TOR) o4.5 +110 WIN +1.1
Tyler Mahle (CIN) o4.5 +110 WIN +1.1
Yu Darvish (CHN) o6 +110 LOSS -1
Max Fried (ATL) o5.5 -103 LOSS -1.03
Edinson Volquez (TEX) o3.5 +100 LOSS -1
Yesterday: 4-6-1 -2.01
Total: 11-16-1 -6.41

Total Bases:
Baez -120 over Acuna Jr (TheGreek) WIN +1
J. Soto -115 over M. Conforto (5d/TheGreek) WIN +1
J. Ramirez -135 over Drury (5d/TG) PUSH
M. Trout -135 over N. Mazara (5d/TG) CANCELLED (Mazara DNS)

Yesterday: 2-0-1 +2u
Total: 5-5-4 +0.4u

Hits+Runs+RBI:
K. Bauers (CLE) hits+runs+RBI -155 over J. Smoak CANCELLED (Smoak DNS)
R. Grichuk (TOR) hits+runs+RBI +105 over T. Naquin LOSS -1
Yesterday: 0-1 -1u

Total bases:
Marte +105 over Votto
Bryant -115 over Shaw (he must be due to get a hit, it's been all season)
Springer -115 over K. Davis
Goldschmidt -135 over Machado
Austin Meadows -115 over Belt

NO ACTION'd bets are excluded from the record.



Daily: 1-0-1, +1.0u
YTD: 6-0-3, +6.25u, 11.32u risked, +55.2% ROI

How was the Philly Cheesesteak?