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Old 06-13-2020, 12:26 PM   #4951
rickroll
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

anyone have an affiliate link with an international (& US friendly) book? send me a pm
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Old 06-13-2020, 01:59 PM   #4952
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Didn't see any COD odds posted today RIP. At least we can't go 1-4 betting on -200 favorites on s&d.

Also, heard from inside sources that during the SEA/ATL pause some ATL players took PEDs and that was the reason for their turnaround. As far as I can tell PEDs are allowed in COD so we have no recourse it seems. Maybe we build adderall and energy drink consumption into the model and put the books out of business for good
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Old 06-13-2020, 02:05 PM   #4953
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

South Point has started offering bull riding odds now too and they posted them before bookmaker.

They made Jose Vitor Leme a 5/2 favorite for tonight.

This is the future.
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Old 06-13-2020, 05:03 PM   #4954
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Donkbetting Barca -303/3way to beat the 3rd worst team in La Liga seemed too easy at first. Up 2-0 at half, 71% possession.
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Old 06-13-2020, 05:09 PM   #4955
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Next goal Barca -250 let's goooooooal
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Old 06-13-2020, 07:18 PM   #4956
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Missed a wide-open sitter off the post but scored next anyway, ez game. and then Messi finished them off 4-0.
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Old 06-14-2020, 10:21 PM   #4957
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting



... BATMAN
!

Finally got some harness data, as you can see, model is coming along great. Thinking of ways to compare times across different tracks. One idea is to make every time relative to the all-time record on that track at that distance. Another is to take the z-score (but this assumes all tracks on average have horses of equal strength). Maybe the best way is to incorporate horses that split their time between several tracks.
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Old 06-15-2020, 01:59 PM   #4958
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

speaking of harness, early season track bias is real

get it before the tracks get used too much



We scooped the entire pool I think. Shows only $204 was bet on him lol
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Old 06-15-2020, 03:03 PM   #4959
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

That's wild. Since pool sizes can be so small for harness, do you still combine the public estimate with your fundamental model like Benter paper does? I guess a remedy might be to weigh the public estimate higher as the pool size goes up.
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Old 06-15-2020, 03:23 PM   #4960
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

i don't pay attention to public at all. pool size is tough. i try to guess it based on prize money + track but it's not an exact science unfortunately.

the feed from equibase includes current pool and you can use that to help

this track is so broken. it hasn't been used in about 7 months probably why

8/1
7/2
3/2
30/1
3/1
30/1
9/1
70/1
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Old 06-15-2020, 07:29 PM   #4961
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

if anyone got woodbine harness, race 2 #6 is insanely underpriced

currently 8/1, should be more like 3/1.

lets get it boys. goes off in 2 mins
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Old 06-15-2020, 07:44 PM   #4962
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

easy winner at 10/1 to pay $23.70

is Canada still under quarantine? The handle at this track is so much lower after a week
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Old 06-15-2020, 08:16 PM   #4963
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
speaking of harness, early season track bias is real

get it before the tracks get used too much



We scooped the entire pool I think. Shows only $204 was bet on him lol
What is the bias though?

In the 10 races today the winners were: 4/1/3/2/5/7/6/9/5/9

That seems like a damn good distribution. The ~32-1 winner you hit was the only horse who won from the 2 spot.

Or is the"bias" simply that the track hasn't been worn in yet and thus the outcomes are much more random and less predictable than usual and the solution is just mashing big underdogs?

Or am I completely misunderstanding?
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Old 06-15-2020, 08:27 PM   #4964
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

historically 2 always does good there early on. wins 17% of time over last 10 years vs. 9% after first month. got 2nd/3rd a bunch at 30/1 + odds

only bad one was the horse who was 1/5 but he never got out of the gate.

6,9 are both really undervalued in northfield r7. lets double get it boys

Last edited by fkjlhfdkjhkj.; 06-15-2020 at 08:41 PM.
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Old 06-15-2020, 09:10 PM   #4965
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
historically 2 always does good there early on. wins 17% of time over last 10 years vs. 9% after first month. got 2nd/3rd a bunch at 30/1 + odds
Interesting. So it's about the track being not beaten down as opposed to the temperature like some other tracks?

Do you bet W/P/S on those then or just win?

I wish horse racing data was more available. I've never understood why tracks don't make more historical data available given the parimutuel nature of the sport.
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Old 06-15-2020, 09:16 PM   #4966
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Equibase got a monopoly. They've shut down people before who did their own stats by timing the races themselves. There used to be a site deadheat.ca where you could get all the stats for free but they sued him.

Some are temp related, some are tracks just need to be broken in. Almost all harness tracks need major repairs and are borderline unsafe. They really only exist because of the law requiring them to have it to operate a casino. If that rule goes away there probably will be a lot of closures.

I think something is wrong with Woodbine tote today. 6 sitting at 5/1 when they're loading in the gate. Have a bet. Coming down the stretch magically changes to 6/5. Still won. Unless someone dumped 10k on a horse in the last second. Seems unlikely.

Northfield 6 won too for $22.40
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Old 06-15-2020, 09:31 PM   #4967
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Have you ever noticed anything "off" about harness racing sigs? Results that can't be explained via stats or track biases, etc.?

I've never given much thought to horse racing but I always heard that harness racing was the most crooked/fixed sport out there.
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Old 06-15-2020, 09:43 PM   #4968
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

not with jockeys swapping wins. it might happen at the smaller courses (the ones with $1000 in the win pool) but i don't bet those.

place/show are kinda worthless in harness due to the pool being so small. only select times to bet it.

some trends you do notice tho are when trainers are doping their horses. it's more obvious than in thoroughbred because the harness horses race so often and the trainers take care of way more horses. Usually when a trainer comes out of nowhere and has a crazy win % they're doping and not some prodigy.
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Old 06-16-2020, 02:08 PM   #4969
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Sciotio Downs back to being a scrub track after their million dollar handles. They're advertising a 30k early pick-4. Was supposed to go off ~10 minutes ago but the horses are doing that walk in circles until they hit the guarantee. Once they hit it, horses to the gates.
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Old 06-17-2020, 10:43 PM   #4970
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting



2 tech bros looking to disrupt in game live betting
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Old 06-18-2020, 12:27 AM   #4971
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

why do so many people make half efforts to get a polo/suit instead of tshirt/hoodie but then don't buy one that fits or even bother to iron them

i'll never trust someone who does halfassed dressing, these two look like they dusted off some clothes from their dad's storage locker
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Old 06-18-2020, 01:44 PM   #4972
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...town-supporter

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/53006236

Northampton general at 8/5. 2.3u
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Old 06-19-2020, 02:42 PM   #4973
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

why didn't the russian arm of the syndicate tell us about this

https://twitter.com/SlavaMalamud/sta...42710081654784
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Old 06-19-2020, 06:04 PM   #4974
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

if anyone wants to get into harness tonight is a good night

stakes racing at meadowlands

18 races

you can see how one of the best tracks went to a shithole because of the guy who bought it.

expect $2.20 payouts all night
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Old 06-19-2020, 07:28 PM   #4975
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

outside of the first race

$4
$2.60
$2.60
$5

every favorite won. Quality.
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