Is there a good place to buy KBO data? I have some things I want to run now.

I scraped oddsportal, they have the odds & score all together all for free. Bless you oddsportal.

Cool. Thanks.

If anyone is into sdql, I just saw that Sportsdatabase has added KBO.

https://s3.sportsdatabase.com/Yotta.KBO/query.html

Scioto just hit 14 nights in a row with a million dollar handle. If you want to get into harness nows the time.

Lotto news: Mega ball odd has been fixed for a week, RIP on that, but they started offering a new bet.

Megaball last number 1-5, or 6-0 (same with powerball)

Fair odds

Powerball: 1-5 -136, 6-0 +136
Mega millions: 1-5 -150, 6-0 +150

Not much value, but for some reason they let you parlay lotto.

Parlaying Powerball 1-5 and Last number 1 pays +950. Fair odds at +766.55 (21.17% edge)
Parlaying Powerball 6-0 and Last Number 6 (or 7,8, etc.) pays +1900. Fair odds are +1200. (53.8% edge)

when will they learn.

They also keep messing up the opening on mega ball 6.

There any good APIs for real time pool data?

equibase charges me $800/month for harness only API access

horse racing is super protective of their data.

Also looks like KBO odd/even is back on bm. Their odd/even handicapper is back from vacation.

Whatever company that runs the sports betting plus has the odd / even too. The same book shows up at some PPH's i use.

1278 MLB games have now been cancelled this year. That's like easily 6k bets for millions of dollars between props, ML, and total that have been lost to corona.

In memoriam to those we lost. I may have to switch to store brand mustard. Can't afford the extra 10 cents for gulden's anymore.

Blatant discrimination that they charge me 800 units and not even one unit for you

harness it's hard to get $$ down because of the small pools. Usually max of $200 bet per race on WPS and $100 for exacta. Woodbine Harness an exception. Yonkers is random but the track is so bad quality wise. I really like Hoosier and Hawthorne too.

Meadowlands has the biggest handle but they're trash now.

Luckily post corona the handles have been huge so you can bet decent amounts and they're pretty soft. Not 1990s soft, but definitely better than the last couple of years where they funneled all the dead money into rainbow 6 esque/hi five lottery tickets.

The big benefit to bet it is rakeback. You can get 5-20% depending on the track and type of bet. So a small ~3-4% ROI which I average on harness is now 8-24%. Even if you're a loser it can be profitable. That has caused some interesting situations where people drive the favorites down so low that they're unprofitable but they don't care because of the rakeback. I'd have to test it but I bet blindly betting on the 2nd favorite over the last year at certain tracks (northfield, harrah's philly, pocono downs) is profitable due to this.

The biggest miss this year due to corona is the Harrah's Philadelphia track bias. Before the track starts to heat up in late May/June something about the surface makes the #5 horse have an insane advantage. It starts appearing again when it gets cold in October/November. I don't know enough about how tracks work to understand why, but it's a bias that's existed for years now. So many long shots come in from that spot. Easy money.

Also to hate on equibase some, even tho they charge you the big fee (they also charge $200/month to get past results on top of the $800) their API has bugs.

Big one yesterday at Scioto where they were displaying the odds for the 14th race instead of the 15th. So of course I make a decent sized bet a the #8. Then a couple minutes later after the race goes off all the odds shift like crazy and I realize I made a horrible bet since the horse was 5/2 not 11/1. It never was 11/1.

Should have been watching the TV but what can you do. Would have lost anyway since a huge 20/1 dog won, but for that price you shouldn't have to deal with frequent errors. It's a bigger deal when you're betting 7 tracks at once in July and can't follow everything because races are going off every minute.

That's definitely something you should message/call them about

doubt they have many clients so they'll probably try to find a way to make it right

Cool that sounds like fun. From all these odd/even gains, I'm going to grab a few years of Trackmaster Plus XML files and see what I can do.

How much do your projections differ from like DataGolf Sigley?

My to win odds match up decently with theirs, but I'm not sure how they're calculating top 5, top 20, head to head, etc. because those are usually different. I tried their head to head tool once to compare to mine and we disagreed a lot.

They keep track of their betting results here

https://datagolf.org/betting-results

and their expected value every year is way above their actual profit which makes me think they're way over calculating their edge and have something wrong (Tho they are using bet365 lines). Also my bets and theirs don't match up a lot outside of in-play outright.

Northfield handle tonight is killing Woodbines re-opening night. Is Canada scared to get back to the tracks? I've never seen this before even with no rebate at Woodbine.

northfield r10. one horse has almost 80% of the money to win.

lets fade with the 2 and 8

damn 6 barely held on at the end. 2 was there the entire time

market smarter than us

Out of curiosity, do you remember what was the fair probability on #6 in your opinion. Also this an example of the guy on #6 "bridge jumping"?

Can you just follow the chart blindly? I was thinking about this this evening and it seems like teams that are more evenly matched would have a better % of odd, given the increase in 1 run games.

Still no idea if this was the right approach, but in this tournament there were only two regions and if you looked at the last ~2 years of data one was quite clearly stronger than the other. Despite that the books had them rated at essentially equivalent strength and the whole thing played out predictably where the stronger region just looked dominant. Score one for the syndicate and now I've got some deluxe groceries coming in.

Yeah I'm not smart enough to know how to incorporate that.

I had 68.4% to win. The show pool wasn't that big so probably not bridge jumping.

You'll see that more during stakes qualifying races because they usually stack the race with nobodies to promote a certain horse. Craft the narrative that he/she is unstoppable since they beat a bunch of nobodies by 10 lengths.
Funniest example was at The Red Mile a couple years ago. The win pool had ~2k in it but there was 38k bet on one horse to place and about 100k to show. The horse that was chosen to win was a beast, but he had issues with disciplin and kept breaking. I just dropped $100 on place and show for every other horse.

The chosen horse came in last

https://www.trackinfo.com/results.js...HLEX08/16/2018



Place paid more than win and show for 9 and 6 paid more than 3 to win.

The superfecta price is wrong. There was only ~1k bet into it, but they scaled it to be if you bet $2 it would pay out this much even tho the pool wasn't close to that.

The chosen horse, Don't let 'em, is still around and is doing pretty good. 2+2 doesn't like the link for some reason but just search its name. Its setting a lot of records.
Still breaks a lot.

Bridge jumping is bad if you're using ADW with rakeback or vegas casinos. Whoever took the bet is on the hook for the lost money and will (a) ban you and/or (b) take the money out of your rakeback. If you're going to do it, do it at the actual track.

That's hilarious. So amwager's interface is making api calls into this url called GetRaceAllOddsMatrixes which updates every 30 seconds. Just for fun, going to setup a thing to alert me for bridge jumpers.