Quote:
Originally Posted by DicedPineapples
Out of curiosity, do you remember what was the fair probability on #6 in your opinion. Also this an example of the guy on #6 "bridge jumping"?
I had 68.4% to win. The show pool wasn't that big so probably not bridge jumping.
You'll see that more during stakes qualifying races because they usually stack the race with nobodies to promote a certain horse. Craft the narrative that he/she is unstoppable since they beat a bunch of nobodies by 10 lengths.
Funniest example was at The Red Mile a couple years ago. The win pool had ~2k in it but there was 38k bet on one horse to place and about 100k to show. The horse that was chosen to win was a beast, but he had issues with disciplin and kept breaking. I just dropped $100 on place and show for every other horse.
The chosen horse came in last
https://www.trackinfo.com/results.js...HLEX08/16/2018
Place paid more than win and show for 9 and 6 paid more than 3 to win.
The superfecta price is wrong. There was only ~1k bet into it, but they scaled it to be if you bet $2 it would pay out this much even tho the pool wasn't close to that.
The chosen horse, Don't let 'em, is still around and is doing pretty good. 2+2 doesn't like the link for some reason but just search its name. Its setting a lot of records.
Still breaks a lot.
Bridge jumping is bad if you're using ADW with rakeback or vegas casinos. Whoever took the bet is on the hook for the lost money and will (a) ban you and/or (b) take the money out of your rakeback. If you're going to do it, do it at the actual track.