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Old 05-23-2020, 10:04 AM   #4826
TheNonPareil
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
I got Brady/Mickelson at +161 on pure assumption that tiger was moving the market & even with Mickelson playing horribly pre Covid tiger was not even playing so both rusty & Brady/Peyton are real wild cards

Seen line move a bit but I'm taking whatever side has + odds in that sans analysis


Crowdsource Syndicate Sports BettingThatís kind of my line of thinking as well.


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Old 05-23-2020, 11:26 AM   #4827
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Golf fish here but took Phil baseball style cap -260 (BOL) and Brady TB12 logo hat -400 (WA) based on those being the headwear seen in the most recent interviews
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Old 05-23-2020, 12:18 PM   #4828
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Lets learn some high level knowledge from this livestream. i just fast forwarded to a random point and started from there



24:28 - best traders he's seen are people who can take bad bets by betting both sides even if there's value only on one side (?)

24:58 - live markets have predictability where you can know "this is 2% but in 3 minutes it will be better" based on past experience.

25:00 - story about how a guy whose model said to bet one side and he lost, unsure of the point

29:30 - we have the best in-play NFL model everywhere. (citation needed)

(skipped over covid stuff)

44:00 - first client, first game they set the wrong line on live bets because their data feed gave them the wrong score.

46:30 - sportsbooks are handcuffed by their software. their companies software solves software mistakes. (except if the score is wrong I guess)

(skipped legalizing sports betting)

1:05:01 - I don't know any new advanced stat techniques

1:05:04 - Our models are better than more advanced models

1:11:00 - if the market becomes efficient, the hold in sportsbooks will be the same as casino games

accidentally closed the browser and don't feel like re-opening. if there's any info i missed please share so we can learn.
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Old 05-23-2020, 12:25 PM   #4829
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

1:18:00 - bet into the markets with more variance (?). focus on college football QB's that get injured in last quarter and the markets dont realize it when opening the next weeks lines. it happens 3-4 times a week.

1:19:30 - books are using models 5 years ago that aren't sharp
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Old 05-23-2020, 02:44 PM   #4830
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Those two are weird. Making significant money betting has gotten very hard so I get why everyone is trying to sell something nowadays, but why do regulated sports books, who can and do ban everyone with a pulse anyway, need super duper accurate in play odds? I just don't see it, and if you do somehow make a sale, what is to keep everyone else from just copying those odds like they do with CRIS/Pinny now? Maybe it only takes one, but somewhat contrary to what I said earlier if you do actually have the best stuff in a market, you are better off crushing for as much as you can until the market is dead imo.

Cliffs: People who are selling have nothing of value, people with things of value aren't selling

Last edited by Iowa!; 05-23-2020 at 02:50 PM.
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Old 05-23-2020, 03:15 PM   #4831
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

gonna need to tout soon if Kovalchuk blows this match against Goncharuk

up 2 sets to 0 and now it's 9-9 in the 5th
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Old 05-23-2020, 03:16 PM   #4832
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

phew kovalchuk pulled it out

now i'm glad i don't have to go on podcasts like Rufus Peabody and talk about how I don't understand machine learning and data science so I can sell the sports betting dream to people.
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Old 05-23-2020, 07:40 PM   #4833
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

back with another podcast review. this one a highly anticipated podcast with Rufus Peabody that came out today

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...=1000475508922

6:45 great explanation of what a cubic model is
started cooking pasta, salmon, and asparagus during the rest of the covid talk so i dunno what was going on because the vent fan, hvac, and pan were all making too much noise
19:15 people with the "Trading sophistication of a spanky" that have a bot that will chase tout picks
19:40 - right angle sports is the only honest tout
19:45 - i turned the podcast off
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Old 05-23-2020, 08:51 PM   #4834
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

lol
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Old 05-23-2020, 08:58 PM   #4835
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

For the young grinders, this summarizes the RAS debacle

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/5...rtiser-795755/
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Old 05-23-2020, 09:17 PM   #4836
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Nice I will check that out.

TB Manning match is interesting. Lots of good spots out there, Brady and Manning are about equal but many spots where they give Brady juice. Lots of interesting props.

Woods Birdie on first hole +300
Mickelson birdie first hole +325

Short par 4, easiest hole on course. Nice chance for a scoop.
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Old 05-24-2020, 02:38 AM   #4837
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Ever wanted to build your own scraper but you didn't know where to start? Or were too intimidated?

Don't worry I got you

http://crowdsourcesyndicate.info/Mom...stScraper.html

Watch as we build a scraper for Nascar H2H matchups and make it generic enough that we can use it for MMA, Boxing, Table Tennis, Tennis, eSports, ...
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Old 05-24-2020, 04:01 AM   #4838
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

sigs, genuinely curious are there any sports betting figures in the twitter world who you recommend to follow?

also been wondering forever is tomcowley on 2p2 tom crowley?
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Old 05-24-2020, 08:51 AM   #4839
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
back with another podcast review. this one a highly anticipated podcast with Rufus Peabody that came out today

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...=1000475508922

6:45 great explanation of what a cubic model is
started cooking pasta, salmon, and asparagus during the rest of the covid talk so i dunno what was going on because the vent fan, hvac, and pan were all making too much noise
19:15 people with the "Trading sophistication of a spanky" that have a bot that will chase tout picks
19:40 - right angle sports is the only honest tout
19:45 - i turned the podcast off
i lold
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Old 05-24-2020, 08:53 AM   #4840
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
Ever wanted to build your own scraper but you didn't know where to start? Or were too intimidated?

Don't worry I got you

http://crowdsourcesyndicate.info/Mom...stScraper.html

Watch as we build a scraper for Nascar H2H matchups and make it generic enough that we can use it for MMA, Boxing, Table Tennis, Tennis, eSports, ...
great stuff, appreciate your posts
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Old 05-24-2020, 01:51 PM   #4841
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Dude, the delta for the other side was worse, if these were independent outcomes then I can get the hate but at the time I posted the options markets resoundingly preferred the -103 vs the -126 side

Normally they are -115 or worse and are fairly even. I know a bunch of people here are betting those so figured I'd pass along today's anomaly
Reread your convo with ND.

I'm not trying to be rude so please don't take it that way.
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Old 05-24-2020, 01:59 PM   #4842
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Golf fish here but took Phil baseball style cap -260 (BOL) and Brady TB12 logo hat -400 (WA) based on those being the headwear seen in the most recent interviews
https://twitter.com/PhilMickelson/st...89565710524417

Hopefully Phil keeps that cap on. Brady TBD but closed -535.
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Old 05-24-2020, 02:08 PM   #4843
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

I took P.Mickelson & T.Brady win match +170

because I want to be Tom Brady when I grow up

No idea about twitter. I just follow random people.

If you made your scraper overnight you might have realized MMA is causing issues. We will fix it and make some modifications based on our needs
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Old 05-24-2020, 02:13 PM   #4844
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Allright I'm in on the +odds let's get this cheddar/lettuce.
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Old 05-24-2020, 02:18 PM   #4845
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa! View Post
Cliffs: People who are selling have nothing of value, people with things of value aren't selling
I tend to always agree with this w/r/t sports betting but can't they just be selling to make more capital to attack [in their minds] other books' inefficient live odds?

Also, there's real optionality if they can become 'industry standard' as low as those odds might be? We all know the best product doesn't always win, so for whatever reason if they can convince people via marketing/etc to hire them win-win for their pocketbooks.


There are other industries where it's normal to sell your knowledge and work for others with much more capital vs just managing your own. Again, not for SB touts but generally speaking.
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Old 05-24-2020, 02:22 PM   #4846
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

all the steam coming in on Tom Brady

+135 now on BM with 50k limits

+130 minutes later

the fix is in
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Old 05-24-2020, 02:49 PM   #4847
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Originally Posted by cockandbull View Post
Reread your convo with ND.

I'm not trying to be rude so please don't take it that way.
Sorry for the unnecessary dickery, I often unintentionally come off as a dick online

Gotta try to keep my image contained to dumbass because if I added douche to that it's a pretty irredeemable combo
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Old 05-24-2020, 02:51 PM   #4848
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Listening to Rufus get interviewed by establish the run

Tomorrow I think I'll have the knowledge to go up against y'all headsup4rollz
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Old 05-24-2020, 03:10 PM   #4849
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

anyone have any stats on putting in five inch puddles?
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Old 05-24-2020, 03:53 PM   #4850
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Great start for Brady and Mickelson
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