I've seen this bet pop up a lot since Corona.

Mega Millions - Golden Mega Ball last digit is 0 +1350

This has an 8% (+1150) chance of happening (2/25 numbers)

Small edge, small limits ($100) but what else is there to do.

anyone here know anything about russian short hockey leagues?

can't find anything but total scores not even video highlights as all video searches show nothing but one tout giving picks

i don't know how many guys on the ice, if they even have goalies, if they can pull goalies, etc etc just that a lot of goals are scored and there's no home ice advantage at all

been doing alright live betting using the pre game o/u as a basis for expected goals so if original line was 12 and halfway through there's been 4 goals and the o/u is 7.5 then that a good time to bet on the o

season is concluding soon but am scraping data to try building a model for next year and if anyone has any input - even on resources where i can learn more about it without speaking russian would be awesome

also, if someone with experience modeling wants to look at my abortion when it's excised out and give input onto how badly i messed up i'd be most obliged

The score is more important than the u/o at this point.

Example...

Favourite
4-0
3-1

Dog
4-0
3-1

Draw
2-2

Which of these results will produce more or less goals?

This doesn't answer your question but hopefully it will show you why you are wrong.

Yeah I tend to lean more to overs on close games and under on blowouts

Found one site that does scoring by period but it's in an awful format so I'll need to clean it first and then can test the impact and incorporate

Could be variance but I'm up quite a few units eyeballing it and I think it's niche enough and data deprived enough to be a good first foray

Really appreciate this input though, this definitely helps reinforce that I need to add that on, would love to pm you the model when it's done for you to tear apart for me because I'd be shocked if it were anything you guys would be proud to have produced

That example is pretty bad, although I figure you get the point.

Watch a football game and have the odds up for next team to score.

Keep an eye on what happens with favourite/ dog taking the lead.

There are some very good book suggestions in this thread that should make this stuff obv.

You should listers to Ivr's advice as well.

Having read back through what you wrote...

I'm up a few units and I don't know where to get any data. It 'could' be variance???

I think it's niche enough and data deprived so I'll have a go???

The season is ending???

Nice. I usually overlook these markets due to small limits and to a lesser extent the incredulity that someone could be so incompetent as to screw up setting the odds on these. Couldn't find the one you posted but did find -650 on not 4.

It's odd why any of these would be off since it's just basic counting, but what can you do. The other yes/no winner at least involves some projections of number of ticket sales.

I saw yesterday "last megaball digit is odd" at +100. 52% chance of that happening. Today it's back up at -105 on both sides, so slight value on odd (-108 is fair)

There might be some $$ in no Powerball winner bet. Due to lower ticket sales they've reset the jackpot to only 20 mil instead of 40 mil. Not sure if it matters much, but glancing at historical ticket sales data they usually lag until the jackpot gets to around 100 mil.

I don't understand this either, it's at a PPH I use and 5Dimes if anyone has an account there.

Powerball last digit is 6

There's 26 powerballs

1,2,3,4,5,6*,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16*,17,18,19, 20,21,22,23,24,25,26*

3/26 = 11.538% Probability

or +766 as a fair line

Current line for yes is +790. Lets get that 2.6882% edge

For Mega Millions Gold Megaball

1*,2,3*,4,5*,6,7*,8,9*,10,11*,12,13*,14,15*,16,17* ,18,19*,20,21*,22,23*,24,25*

13 odd out of 25

13/25 = 52% chance of odd mega ball or -108.33 fair line. 1.5238% edge against -105 lines which are widely available.

Why is math so hard.

Powerball is 50/50 odd/even so no edge at -105.

I fed this into our proprietary crowdsource syndicate machine learning algorithm and here's what it spit out. Keep it on the down low. I'm preparing a paper on this for Nature. Fields medal incoming.



We did it. at 11:41am odd moved to -110 and 6 to +665

Shoutout to TomG is defintely the special sauce that makes that model tick.

Looking for advice/resources/papers on projecting players and teams competing in international tournaments. That is to say, if two teams from separate leagues are competing against eachother - how would you go about adjusting for league strength?

Is it just looking at historical performance and going off of that? I need the syndicates help to become a grocery money savant.

That's tough, no idea.

So many high steaks h2h have people shoving in Glover and Smith. Wonder what optimizer spit that one out.

lets get that 555 entry tournament

Had mostly Villanueva > Sherman in the large field stuff to try and chop with fewer. Pretty sure I'm drawing dead in the $10 unless Moras somehow cracks the top 6. All small entries have Sherman though so maybe I'll salvage something. With only 10 fights and such a large field it seems tough to get a decent ROI. I thought Lins would be ~35% owned vs. 50% which makes a pretty big difference in approach.

I got ~80% Sherman and Kelleher, so super live.

Morales screwed up the big tournament tho unless Lins busts. Paid up for him at $8800, whoops. Not sure how they didn't cancel that earlier considering that guns shin had a huge hole in it.

Got a unique lineup in the $555 so hopefully the big % guys like Lins, Smith, Tiex all bust.

nice suck out on the Lins fade.

Anyone got a Powerball live stream? Lets go Powerball last digit 6

Powerball:



Got it in good just didn't happen

eSim bettors I have a hypothesis and if it's true I don't know how I will live with myself.

If you've been following along you've noticed that mid-week last week the ML's starting going crazy until Friday and then it went to small tiny moves. What's odd tho is in that time, fading the steam has gone 3-28 - pretty crazy! It's almost like how bad you would have run if you chased the steam before last week.

Here's what I think happened:

I mentioned before that the source I use for the lines is consistently mixing up the home and away team. If you look at some of the opening lines they might be -8.5/8.5 and then get corrected to +8.5/-8.5. So I went back and manually looked at what is the original home team vs. the one they listed and it turns out almost (87%) all of the bets where fade the steam worked they mixed up the home and away team. This also explains why some days fading the steam consistently lost is because it turns out those days they actually loaded the home and away team correctly.

I'm assuming that might have influenced their o/u too. If it was set up wrong then when the total dropped it was supposed to rise and that was why fading it was profitable. It doesn't change the idea that it's rigged because chasing the steam is still hitting in the mid 80's% over almost a thousand games in the last month. The ML's going crazy I believe is due to people realizing they could just arb the sites ML's with other sites for free money.

So in actuality we were chasing steam except since the mixed up home and visitor they were applying the steam to the wrong side. There's a lot of evidence to support this and it makes me sick. That means we are not any better than bottom feeders like spanky. It's truly disgusting and I don't know how I'm going to get over this. There's definitely years of therapy ahead and it couldn't come at a worse time with everything shut down. I did an Rocky 4 Apollo Creed is dead montage drive last night when I discovered it, but it didn't really help.



It could be do to having an automatic car and a Tesla which doesn't make those revving noises and not being able to shift in anger. Plus I lacked scenes to think about with regards to eSims betting like Rocky had.

To recap what COVID has taken away from us in the last two months

(1) Sports
(2) A way to feed our loved ones
(3) TomG
(4) Our dignity
(5) Self-respect

Well played.

I guess the only thing left to do is post a video about how ridiculous it is that William Hill won't take a $970,000 bet on a pick up basketball game between two community colleges in South Dakota and how they're dressmakers not bookmakers.

CSSB post-COVID:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHC_R7ATGuI

America can do it. It just takes old school methods like cutting down trees and lifting horse carriages full of my friends and family. That is the cure, not medicine and technology like Drago used.

I was thinking more like

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4BiC3OUNFqE

"I hope so, too."