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Old 05-09-2020, 03:20 PM   #4726
DefNotRsigley
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

first accident involved

Kligermann
Hamlin
Cassill

can we bet who will wreck first? I feel we would crush that prop every week
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Old 05-09-2020, 04:27 PM   #4727
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

heyo hamlin won.

smithley > nemechek and preece +2
smithley < hill -1
kligerman < hill -1
cassill > bell +1
hamlin > preece +1
hamlin +5.01, rest -3

Managed to get some hamlin +750 too so decent day!
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Old 05-09-2020, 05:14 PM   #4728
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Had mostly Hamlin/Hill/Bell lineups on DK but all of them are killed by either McDowell/Busch (disconnected) or Chad Finchum who never connected at all. Are there props available for who will lag out or disconnect from the server early?
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Old 05-09-2020, 05:20 PM   #4729
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

haha Finchum I saw he wasn't in the server with a couple minutes left and took him out of everything.

Almost won all the single entry tournaments I entered with a pretty trash lineup

Hill/Bell/Cassill/Labonte/Bowyer/Poole

Lot of dupe lineups of Hill/Hamlin/Bell/Bowyer/Gase/Finchum in those tournaments, so it worked out. That lineup actually cashed without Finchum and was my initial single entry lineup haha.

Cassill spinning Chastain at the end and sending him to 10th kinda ruined it. I was so big on Hamlin but when I took Finchum out had to put my highest projected without Finchum as cash and it didn't have Hamlin. Womp womp. Getting a couple K on Hamlin to win balanced it out.
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Old 05-09-2020, 05:36 PM   #4730
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Yea my top lineup was the Hill/Hamlin/Bell/Bowyer/Gase/Finchum train. Still managed to cash and win a 10-man WTA with it bc lol iRacing. All tourney lineups that did better had McDowell. Not sure where I would've gone had I known Fincher was out but doubt I would've fit Hamlin in since I had Hill/Bell top 2

DK should offer an o/u on how many times the top lineup gets duped in the upcoming UFC contest. I'm sure they'd make a killing.
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Old 05-09-2020, 05:45 PM   #4731
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

If anyone wants to hear some SHARP sports betting analysis, Action Network is doing a UFC livestream where one analysis just said all heavy weight fights should just be -110 on each side because it's random.
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Old 05-09-2020, 05:49 PM   #4732
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Tout industry really struggling

Quote:
Roughly 55% of fights end before the scorecards in the UFC — but at the heavyweight level, that number jumps up to over 70%.

And when you two gigantic thumpers like Hardy and Yorgan ready to swing, the number has to be closer to 80%.

In a heavyweight battle like that, it’s hard to make either fighter a substantial favorite.

I think that Yorgan’s true odds are around +120 (implied 45.5%), and I bet him at +187 (implied 35%) — which I tracked in the Action app.

If you multiply 45.5%, against a 75% knockout rate, you get odds of +194 (implied 34%) — so anything over +200 on Yorgan by knockout is fair value too.

It’s Yorgan or nothing.
this is amazing.
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Old 05-09-2020, 05:49 PM   #4733
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Didn't hear it, but that is basically what John Murray at Westgate said the other day on a show. 1 punch could end it either way. lol
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Old 05-09-2020, 05:53 PM   #4734
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

other great analysis

most men who play DFS are men so you might want to include women in your lineup since men are less likely to select them
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Old 05-09-2020, 06:15 PM   #4735
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
Tout industry really struggling



this is amazing.
That's a pretty solid quote. The touts have never seen tougher times IMO.

Saw one on twitter hawking an uber eats code. Another "hockey analytics" guy (he apparently is director of analytics for a minor league team),has converted to KBO and is posting game predictions that are a good 20-30% off the market. Today he has the Samsung Lions as a -187 favorite vs. +140 dogs and NC Dinos as a -260 favorite when they're +105. Wonder if he's just using YTD RS/RA and not even adjusting for starting pitcher.
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Old 05-09-2020, 06:55 PM   #4736
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

should have listened to their advice. my lineup in the $555 is chalk city

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Old 05-09-2020, 07:10 PM   #4737
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

I'm shocked by the Cruz vs. Cejudo ownership. Would've faded de castro too had I known ownership. Have 15% Alvey vs. 6% field in first fight. Spann will prob win but I think it's my best shot for a low # chop
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Old 05-09-2020, 07:15 PM   #4738
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

I got 50% Alvey in the million but I only put in 20 lineups. I figure anything w/o Alvey is gonna get chopped 100 ways so why not just gamble it up and he gave the best chance to random a high score among the low ownership predictions.
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Old 05-09-2020, 07:23 PM   #4739
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Does Alvey get points for those karate kid air kicks at the end of the round 2? Pretty sure he should. Really looked like he was gonna get choked out standing up 30s into the fight, can see why he's been defensive but gotta go for the KO here in round 3 he's not gonna win it by decision.
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Old 05-09-2020, 07:35 PM   #4740
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Sick 16 points from Alvey, at least going full fade on Spann worked out. Basically ~34% of lineups dead now
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Old 05-09-2020, 07:51 PM   #4741
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Swapped off 50% Mitchell to get more Rosa...not a good idea apparently
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Old 05-09-2020, 08:03 PM   #4742
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Sick 107 from Mitchell. If he choked him out in the first ten seconds like he had I thought he would have gotten less lol. Now got a sweat in the $555 with low-ish owned Mitchell
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Old 05-09-2020, 08:44 PM   #4743
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Yikes

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Old 05-09-2020, 09:05 PM   #4744
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Two different judges thought Esparza and Waterson each won 30-27...could this be the next russian eSports sim play?
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Old 05-09-2020, 09:07 PM   #4745
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

I didn't know which fighter was which and I'm guessing that is what happened.

That lineup in the $555 is unique even with all the high owned %, so got a sweat going. Just need the two massive dogs in the main event to win
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Old 05-09-2020, 11:41 PM   #4746
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Hah--figured it was the best spot for a dinner break and came back to see the end. Then heard 30-27, 29-28, 30-27 split decision and was quite confused
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Old 05-10-2020, 12:10 AM   #4747
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

welp this went downhill fast lol
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Old 05-10-2020, 01:13 AM   #4748
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

somehow that trash was good enough for 26th and decent cash
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Old 05-10-2020, 01:21 AM   #4749
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Needed a Ferguson comeback to get close to even, like -40% or so on DK tonight. At least we only have to wait to Wednesday to lose on men's wrestling again
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Old 05-11-2020, 10:59 AM   #4750
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Club Series games no longer being offered

Ultraplay down to $25 limits

PPH's cut limits on all eSims to $50.

It took a month but it looks like Video Game betting is dead for me. What a great run though, we did it guys.
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