Okie dokie let's see what scraps are left this afternoon
P. Alonso +100 over R. Hoskins hoskins not in lineup
Gallo -115 over Pujols fading your steam here taking Pujols +110
Acuna Jr -135 over D. Peralta i wouldn't lay -135 but i see it
Springer -115 over K. Davis agree
JD Martinez -115 over Aaron Judge agree
Betts -140 over Carpenter agree
Arenado -120 over Machado i don't see value
Conforto -115 over Harper agree
Since the lines are blown out like a cheap sneaker I'm only officially taking
Pujols +110 over Gallo
Merrifield -115 over Abreu
but unofficially would be
Conforto -115 over Harper
Betts -140 over Carpenter
JD Martinez -115 over Aaron Judge
Springer -115 over K. Davis
Merrifield -115 over Abreu
Not including Pujols over Gallo in the unofficial list since I wouldn't play it at -115. Merrifield over Abreu would be a miserable sweat which is how I know it's a good bet.
Yep I could bet that for max $20 and it would move minimum 20c on 5dimes. Never understood how anyone in here has worthwhile limits to be looking at those.
I have $50 (yay :-|) limits on the “marquee” total base offerings that come out early but $20 max for every other prop.
should have ogtten it at 8:49 am from TheGreek at -140
also 5D had it at -140 almost all day
TheGreek takes $200 for me on TB and Bookmaker $250 (and $500 for K's but there's not much after BetBuilder sets the market). Plus I need to call on the phone to use Bookmaker as I've been phone only forever now. And talking to people on the phone is hard
I was banned from 5D like 10 years ago
Last edited by fkjlhfdkjhkj.; 04-16-2019 at 07:03 PM.
Thank you Ari Lewski, CEO of Digital Sports Tech, who created BetBuilder for bringing such an innovative product to the market!
TB:
Cain +115 TB over Ozuna (Bookmaker) WIN +1.15
Acuna Jr -135 over D. Peralta WIN +1
P. Alonso +100 over R. Hoskins CANCELLED (Hoskins DNS)
JD Martinez -115 over Aaron Judge LOSS -1.15
Mookie Betts -140 TB over Brett Gardner LOSS -1.4
Arenado -120 over Machado WIN +1
Springer -115 over K. Davis WIN +1
Gallo -115 over Pujols WIN +1
Conforto -115 over Harper WIN +1
Haniger +115 TB over J. Ramirez (Bookmaker) LOSS -1
Votto +105 TB over Corey Seager LOSS -1
Yesterday: 6-4 +1.6u
Total: 36-33-13 +0.9u
K:
Sale u8 -114 WIN +1
Musgrove u5.5 -114 LOSS -1.14
Strasburg u7 -114 LOSS -1.14
Dereck Rodriguez o4 -114 WIN +1
Glasnow u7 -114 WIN +1
Quintana o5 -114 WIN +1
Bundy u6 -114 WIN +1
Flaherty u6.5 -114 WIN +1
Gibson u5.5 -114 WIN +1
Barria u4.5 -114 WIN +1
J. Lopez u4.5 -114 LOSS -1.14 (I didn't consider the significance of the first Lopez vs Lopez pitching matchup in MLB history)
R. Lopez u5 -114 PUSH (see above)
Woodruff u6 -114 PUSH
Leake u4.5 -114 WIN +1
McHugh u6 -114 WIN +1
Yesterday: 10-3-2 +6.58u
Total: 95-86-19 +3.36u
HRR:
Votto +110 over J. Turner CANCELLED (Turner DNS)
Nelson Cruz o2 CANCELLED (DNS)
N. Ahmed -110 over D. Swanson WIN +1
Villar +120 over Kiermaier LOSS -1
JD Martinez o2 LOSS -1.14
Mookie Betts o2 LOSS -1.14
M. Cabrera o1.5 WIN +1
Conforto o2 WIN +1
Rendon u2.5 WIN +1
McCutchen o2 WIN +1
Mancini o1.5 WIN +1
Villar o1.5 LOSS -1.14
Dwight Smith Jr o1.5 WIN +1
Arenado o2 WIN +1
Grandal -115 over Molina WIN +1
Peralta u2 WIN +1
Adam Jones o1.5 WIN +1
Alex Gordon u2 WIN +1
Wil Myers o1.5 WIN +1
Tim Anderson u2 WIN +1
Jorge SOler u2 WIN +1
Mike Trout o2 LOSS -1.14
Votto o1.5 WIN +1
Bregman o2 WIN +1
Santana u2 LOSS -1.14
Piscotty u2 WIN +1
Chapman u2 WIN +1
Altuve o2 LOSS -1.14
Kipnis u2 LOSS -1.14
Puig o1.5 LOSS -1.14
M. Brantley -125 over S. Piscotty PUSH
Yesterday: 19-9-1 +8.89u
Total: 86-63-21 +17.93u
Great comeback in the late games for a small win on the huge slate of HRR. We lost both TB. 3 bets NO ACTION and expunged from the record.
Spoiler:
Wager Terms Risking Result Net
R. DEVERS U2.0 -114 1.14 WIN 1
X. BOGAERTS U2.0 -114 1.14 WIN 1
L. VOIT U2.0 -114 1.14 PUSH 0
B. HARPER U2.0 -114 1.14 LOSS -1.14
J. REALMUTO U2.0 -114 1.14 LOSS -1.14
M. CONFORTO U2.0 -114 1.14 LOSS -1.14
R. CANO U2.0 -114 1.14 PUSH 0
A. RENDON U2.5 -114 1.14 WIN 1
D. SMITH U1.5 -114 1.14 LOSS -1.14
T. PHAM U2.5 -114 1.14 WIN 1
J. CHOI U2.0 -114 1.14 PUSH 0
D. PERALTA U2.0 -114 1.14 WIN 1
K. MARTE U2.0 -114 1.14 WIN 1
P. DEJONG U2.0 -114 1.14 PUSH 0
L. CAIN U2.0 -114 1.14 LOSS -1.14
J. SCHOOP U2.0 -114 0 NO ACTION 0
M. TROUT O2.0 -114 1.14 LOSS -1.14
J. GALLO U2.5 -130 1.3 LOSS -1.3
Y. MONCADA U2.0 -114 1.14 LOSS -1.14
A. GORDON U2.0 -114 1.14 WIN 1
C. BLACKMON U2.0 -114 1.14 PUSH 0
T. STORY U2.0 -114 1.14 LOSS -1.14
M. MACHADO U2.0 -114 1.14 WIN 1
G. SPRINGER U2.5 -114 1.14 LOSS -1.14
K. DAVIS U2.0 -114 1.14 WIN 1
M. CHAPMAN U2.0 -114 1.14 WIN 1
S. PISCOTTY U2.0 -114 1.14 WIN 1
C. SANTANA U2.0 -114 1.14 LOSS -1.14
D. SANTANA U2.0 -114 1.14 WIN 1
E. ENCARNACION U2.0 -114 1.14 WIN 1
M. HANIGER U2.0 -114 1.14 WIN 1
A.J. POLLOCK U2.0 -114 0 NO ACTION
C. BELLINGER U2.5 -114 0 NO ACTION
M. MUNCY U2.0 -114 1.14 LOSS -1.14
J. WINKER U2.0 -114 1.14 WIN 1
Pujols over Gallo 110 1 LOSS -1
Betts over Gardner -145 1.45 LOSS -1.45
Daily: 15-14-5, -1.29u
YTD: 73-57-17, +16.58u, 171.22u risked, +9.7% ROI
BTW I hope everyone had a chance to build their databases. I checked in on the prop we talked about before, Run Scores In The First, and here's what you'd be looking at for 2019
Speaking of not a bad start, since we've made adjustments to the HRR model we've been killing it, +20 or so units. My ROI for that prop is also sitting at a nice 13.06% currently (including the basically running even for the first 120 or so bets). Doesn't seem sustainable, but who knows. Total bases is at 2.03% and K's 3.98%. I feel those are more realistic ROI's going forward. We are sitting at a cool $133,990 wagered in 16 days. It's all about volume IMO. Push those small edges.
Now that we're positive on posted plays lets keep it that way!
Last edited by fkjlhfdkjhkj.; 04-17-2019 at 09:01 AM.
love that positive, can-do attitude. it is the magic of thinking big. lets get started on parsing out the last season in retrosheet so we can see if the data is skewed like in HRR
we'll have to get some betting lines too. what do you think rsigley should we look at 5i lines to better focus on the starting pitchers or the likely more efficient full game line?
