lol wiz outscore mavs by 14 in the 4th to cover

Some basic stats, excluding todays games I have 351 games for Season 5

Vs. Closing Line 157 over and 194 under (55.27%)
Vs. Opening Line 156 over and 195 Under

The interesting thing is there were exactly 52 games with different closing lines then opening with the average move 1.6 points, yet only 1 mattered in determining over and under. No real difference if the line moved to the under or over.

You see something similar with spreads.

Vs. Closing: Home ATS: 175-174
Vs. Opening: Home ATS: 174-175

Basically 50/50 and only one different opening vs. closing even though 84 games had line moves.

110 of the 351 games had a ML move but no spread move (or the spread closed the same as opening). Will dig deeper but the no difference between getting opening or closing lines seems interesting. You can essentially just bet the worse number at any book and get the same results.

If that doesn't scream rigged I don't know.

sigs, have you come across GoldenSim for NBA and NFL at all at any of ur PPHs?

Never seen it anywhere. Couple of PPH's just stopped offering all sim's recently.

I know this goes against our always bet NFL 5D eSIm over but hopping on GNB @ CHI u43 for the early game.

crazy

opening 41
bet u43

total 42

luckily we did it but if you jumped early on the bet the over because their settings are weird you win too

no matter what we do we can't lose

fading the bears steam cashed too. so amazing

Does this make it likely that they know the final score and are just trying to move the lines around to get more action on losing side?

For some reason they seem to want to keep the spread such that the same side wins for all spreads. Seems very strange, are they just doing it because it makes it easier to keep track?

That last game goes against this though...

costa rica could have different scamming methods than russia, they're new to the game

i'm going to go with the original plan and hit that o45 in pit/new england

looks like we taking the L here

if we waited then we could have faded the over steam

or did we cause the over steam

or was it taiwan

may never know

Never mind we are geniuses

easy over.

Costa Rica got us early yesterday with the seahawks but then has lost the last 6

OKC -6.5 fit into the money line theory. Down by 7 early but lets get this suck out.

I know trends are stupid, but GSW's are 12-31 against the spread in "Season 5"

When they're favored by 20 or more they're 12-26 with being 4-14 on the road.

This is something that you see in fonbet's UFC too. Khabib and McGregor lost so many fights, but when you go to sportsbook UFC they're favorites and win a lot. GSW is a very public team and they could intentionally be skewing the lines against them.

Next game? 29.5 favorites on the road against Dallas. Lets get that Dallas money

Mil is another one

8-18 ATS

another public team with big spreads

I was originally planning on taking OKC because of the ml theory (okc went from -270 to -260) but then the spread ended up moving from 6.5 to 7 and the ml moved (okc went -260 to -280) as well. So I ended up fading both and took Wiz +7

yea bad timings, whoops. The first small move was super small too, I got too excited and didn't pay attention.

HOU +6 NFL cashes
the HOU/saints over cashes
Dal +29.5 cashes
Lakers -1.5 cashes

Same thing happened in the LAC game. UTH moved to -360 then back to -390 so maybe skip. but looking like BOS +9.5 vs. OKC works. The first move was right after the line was posted which I usually ignore so lets get it.

and DEN -1 NFL vs. OAK

It appears our friends from Belarus are alive and well too (Lakers / Rockets under)

oh wait OKC/BOS is Club Series not Season 5. I wouldn't do that then, good thing I double checked.

i'm gonna take o40.5 in the Denver game too based on settings theory

lot of anti ATL ML steam for their first game, then steam on them for G2

so ATL -1.5 vs DEN
and BOS -1.5 vs ATL?

also makes sense ATL would be tired after playing 2 games in a row

These matchups jogged my memory — it appears the schedule has started to recycle.

https://twitter.com/DocBettor/status...54523700908040

For what it's worth, last time the results were:
ATL 113 @ DEN 101
BOS 95 @ ATL 94

too bad the results are different

march 29 lakers 120, houston 110. today it was 113-104 lakers

and golden state won by 51 over Dallas then, but only 27 today

that would be amazing if it was exactly the same

yeah ATL -1.5 and bos -1.5 seem to be the two plays. Barring any last second line changes

LAC and BOS (in club series) both should hit which is good for the ml theory

I have all the line history for Club Series. Need to add the results, might be something there.

5D is so confusing on how they put the games in because they mix up the home and visitor team sometimes making it such a pain.

tons of ML movement on OKC/BOS towards OKC in Game 2, but spread hasn't moved at all. Guess I'll jump on BOS +10.5 because why not.

I have home and away manually logged, so I can tell when 5D flipped the listings to the standard home at the bottom if you share a sample set. It was sometime in the past couple of weeks.

There was a last second move on the ATL ml (went from -120 to -125) so who knows what that means. Already took ATL so hopefully it was just a bluff

it was April 23rd, ran into the issue last night when I scraped the results and it swapped things. Had to randomly sample a couple from each day until I found it.

The problem is I have the database set up with things like FG_closeSpreadHome which corresponds to what they labeled as home, so the home/away splits were all mixed it up.

Can anyone contact Ben Mezrich on twitter to write a book about us. MIT blackjack team, that wall street group, the russian video game sims

Sounds like a great trilogy.

What's funny is before this there was 1 maybe 2 ML moves if the game moved. Now some of them are moving like 7 times. Same thing happened right after we exposed the spread thing

denver -1 cash it
denver/oak o40.5 cash it
11-1 vs. costa rica in 2 days since they opened their twitch channel
atlanta cash it after being down 4 with a minute left, an official review that sent the game to OT
boston game 1 if you accidentally bet it because you didn't realize it was a club series game cash it
boston game 2 if you decided to bet club series games after what happened in boston game 1 cash it


okc game 3 vs. boston -9.5, cash it????

That Atlanta ending was pretty crazy. Somehow they tie the game in the last minute, then Jokic misses a shot, gets his rebound, and shoots but the officials deem it was after the clock expired, OT, cash it.