UFC events on May 9, 13, and 16. Guess we handicapping men wrestling now. Return of what fighter is wearing their hat backwards in their google image search strategy?

i've been too ashamed of myself to post. it's usually one of my favorite times of the year as spring rolls around, baseball fires up, and my creative juices start flowing. now i'm stuck in a malaise. i know i should be using this time productively in the lab focusing on research and development. rsgiely is alive and posts a white paper on developing a quantitative modeling framework. i saved it and there it sits unread. i have zero motivation.

TomG quarantine related depression is real. Some people might interpret us finding scams in Russian eSimulations basketball as a side effect of that. It's not normal behavior.

Baseball has been what I look forward to for the past 16 years and it's weird to not exist. We just need to take it one day at a time. All those things that you wanted to do "if you only had time", write them down and make an actionable plan to achieve them.

I've been slacking on the Nascar thing (so much that the domain elapsed, whoops, I'll fix that), but I will get back at it. I got distracted with eSim sports money and then draft money and it's hard to get motivated if you don't even know when the sport is coming back. Now that there's nothing until May 9th we can better ourselves. The 3rd time for Nascar is gonna be the best time.

Don't forget about your kids too. They're probably too young to really comprehend what is going on now. Why they can't see their friends, or why they can't go to the park. I'm worried about the long term health for generation Z

Found someone off here for this, and he has been great. Now I'm looking for 1 or 2 more guys for two large Excel data entry undertakings. The work is tedious and boring but pays above market. PM if interested.

a few days ago i wrote a post about poogs getting banned in his own well. then i realized i didn't have the energy for fake outrage so instead of clicking submit reply i just closed the tab. not even motivated to troll OOT coronavirus thread ("darth vader was on a ventilator for much of his life and he seemed fine"). happy belated one year anniversary crowdsource syndicate.

Draft props only have $50 limit today vs $500-1k (or more) and only one of my PPH copied them, so these all are a 0.1u or so. Just play if degen'ing - didn't put much thought into it. Some of these are also on BetMGM with $50 to win limits. So yea, great market out there.

Epenesa next DE drafted +150 (see him going to Pats)
McKinney NOT first safety drafted +160 (I think Delpit goes first so if you have a book that offers that take it)
Mims next WR drafted (first off the board)
Higgins o41.5 +110
Mims u39.5 -140
Swift o38.5 -175
Kmet o43.5 -160 (don't even see him going him in R2)

NE first pick is D +100 (Epenesa)
LAR DEF -140
IND DEF +155
HOU DEF -190
CHI DEF -150
BUF OFF -125

For the RB I see three teams who need a RB; Bucs, Steelers, Rams. Steelers might not depending on how injured James Conner is.

Bucs don't draft to 45, so unless they trade up taking any RB o44.5 or below is good. I really think the Bucs go for D'Andre Swift or Taylor and Steelers take the other. Toss up IMO.

another that got posted

Eason o52.5 -180

I think 0 QB's go in R2

I don't know why they aren't respecting us after yesterday

Dobbins o50.5 currently +160
CHI DEF +110
IND DEF +165
VUF OFF +115

Looks good to me. Any leans on SEC o/u 18.5 R2+3, and Pac-12 o/u 6.5 R2+3?

I don't know what schools are in the SEC or Pac-12, don't really follow college sports. Iowa! might know, he killed that yesterday

I'm not sure how worth while it is since it didnt account for team skill, but if you could figure out a way to incorporate that it would probably be better than however the books feel.

I think because theres no physical limitations to playing (age/injury) often times the highest skilled and most knowledgeable LoL players are the players themselves. Theres no salary or glory for being a good coach, so no coach has better knowledge than the players themselves. When drafting a player is going to pick for themselves (what makes it easiest for me to win lane, what have I been practicing the most lately) and the coach probably doesnt argue because they dont know more than the player.

Twitch chat is filled with morons but one specific caster in Korea was a former lower division coach and his whole bit now is talking about how bad people are at drafting and what champions hed draft. For the most part I think hes correct so now twitch chat has someones good opinion to parrot so they might be more informed now than usual.

Telling friends/family youre gambling on Chinese League of Legends is never easy, and is one of the toughest things to deal with in quarantine. Stay strong.

whats all this steam on Cmet u43.5

got over at -160, then it's +100, then got +220

did a scout leak something

make us that over money Jeremy Fowler

and the backtrack

we getting crushed so far, shout out to books for being scared and only taking small bets here

Kmet! lol!

RIP day 2

how do we run so good that we kill it on th eday where you can get real money down and get destroyed on day 2

Bills draft O and this won't be a total punt.

Ok scratch that... lul

I'm lucky I got a lot of Dobbins at big + odds, almost enough to cancel out the Kmet loss. Rest was a disaster. Never betting R2 in the future, nothing makes sense. How is Mims still available? Where were all these safeties when we had o6.5 DB yesterday?

Looks like I'm giving back $2,595 at $50 at a time which is pretty impressive. Praise whoever let this happen today and not yesterday. I also got super lucky. I though yesterday I was betting Hurts not drafted in the 1st round, but I was actually betting Hurts taken in the 2nd round (which might explain why the + odds were so big, didn't realize until it didn't get graded yesterday and I actually read the bet) and Eagles came through.

Epenesa next DE drafted +150 (should have seen the Pats pick it was so obvious) LOSS -1
McKinney NOT first safety drafted +160 (I think Delpit goes first so if you have a book that offers that take it) LOL -1
Mims next WR drafted (first off the board) LOL -1
Higgins o41.5 +110 WIN +1.1
Mims u39.5 -140 LOSS -1.4 lol
Swift o38.5 -175 LOSS -1.75 LOL
Kmet o43.5 -160 (don't even see him going him in R2) LOSS -1.6 LOL
NE first pick is D +100 (Not Epenesa) WIN +1
LAR DEF -140 LOSS -1.4
IND DEF +155 LOSS -1
HOU DEF -190 WIN +1
CHI DEF -150 LOSS -1.5 (double burn with Kmet)
Eason o52.5 -180 WIN +1
Dobbins o50.5 +160 WIN +1.6
BUF OFF -125 LOSS -1.25
5-10
-7.2u * (.1u size -0.72!)

got crushed sorry. i should have put more effort into this but once i saw the limits I fell into TomG esque depression. Where can we bet Round 3 we need to chase these losses

whoops actually -$2922.50

shouldn't complain after yesterday but this sucks

I am just happy that you are once again healthy and the syndicate is reunited.
We took a few lumps today but we will keep pressing forward.

Like the idea around LOL betting based on draft results but think we need to rely on data & game knowledge rather than chat's emotions. Game logs for pro leagues were easy to find fortunately (https://oracleselixir.com/match-data/) though I don't have historical odds.

Maybe we start by predicting kill total based on team comp? Starting simple and looking at distribution of kill total, I notice that the median is ~1 kill lower than the avg but book lines seem to be set based on the average. For some reason the skew is larger in the LPL and LEC (25 v. 26.7 and 24 v. 26) than LCK/LCS where it's only 0.5 kill difference.

For FPX/EDG tonight the team average kills are a bit below the kill total (25 avg vs. 25.5 o/u) and the median being even lower would make me think u25.5 is a good play, but I'm a novice to the eSport. Maybe outcomes where FPX (favorite) wins have a higher kill total which the market is factoring in?

Could the logistic regression method sigs posted earlier work here for LOL team comp? The kill distribution is tri-modal with a long tail which makes sense given match length isn't fixed by time or kill total. Two variables make up kill total, game length and kills/min (engagement rate). Games that either end quick or have low engagement will go under, while 30+min games with lead changes will go over. It makes sense that team comp could predict how likely each branch is but the champion pool is deep enough that I'm not sure I could catch up on direct game knowledge. I think we need to come up with some additional attributes we can add to the game log so we can see what types of team comps lead to faster vs. slower kill pace. Thinking stuff like AP vs. AD champion, ability scaling, maybe an early/mid/late game rating.

A dog taking an early-game comp vs. a favorite with a late-game comp should surely move the odds but instead the books are relying on their live feed from riot being 5mins faster than the live stream the bettors are watching.

glad we lost so the bears can have the 10th tight end on their roster

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...-10-tight-ends

TE by committee is the new optimal approach according to XFL analytic experts