Only Belicheat can get a 4th round pick for a pro wrestler.

Thumbs do look forward to those clowns going 7-9.

The clowns with Jarrett Stidham at QB or the clowns or traded for Gronk?

Both, I hope.

43 days without real sports, eSims dead, lets get this gov't unemployment boys.

I don't know how Brady is going to accomplish this now that's he's in the check down to James White mode of his career, but I hope for this

Been sweating a lot of lol LPL on twitch lately (shout-out to jskelts closing a great spring season in lol DFS) and the parts I pay most attention to is the draft and anecdotally have noticed the live chat sometimes reacts very strongly towards one team or another in the draft and that team usually wins

Well today I decided to bet that and it worked marvelously got the huge dogs on the overall (chat loved them so much in game one day that I figured +280 odds in a best of 5 was good ev) and then followed chat to correctly bet the underdog winner j in the three matches they won and didn't bet the one the favorite won because the chat was undecided - did take that as a good sign to bet the over (longer game) and that didn't work out (but was on pace until a fluke led to an early finish and just missed hitting the over)

Of course this was lol stakes due to only having money on acr from my no deposit challenge ready to go but nevertheless I think there's an angle here to pound in bets mid draft simply based on chat sentiment

new best of 5 lpl playoff match of rng -110 vs edg -120

starts in 5 minutes and basically the same odds for each match and total match too so will put a small bet overall winner and game 1 based off chat reaction and test this theory

chat mildly preferred edg draft so put $6 on winning the series and another $6 on winning game one

gotta say was thinking of passing this one since everyone just fanboying it up over a "missing" player who hadn't played all year so obviously a lot of people just tuning in for playoffs

chat was favoring edg again so put on another 6 and they won again, missed the game though and game 3 where rng won due to fight with gf (covid life -ev) so missed that but unknown who chat favored

sweating game 4 draft now

no bet on game 4, people seemed to be mixed on who won draft and both a - odds would rather just fade

maybe missed a chance betting the under because one of the teams has an early game advantage and will be trying to end it soon

edg won game 4 and the series so 2/2 betting winner of series based on who wins draft in game one and 4/4 now on individual games

0/1 when i guessed at o/u and would have been 0/2 had i gotten in my under bet just now

going to keep riding this and will stay away from the o/u bets, i sure as hell don't understand the rocks/paper/scissors dynamics at play but the chat so far is pretty good at recognizing when one team draft choices matches up against the other pretty well and there's nothing they love more than declaring it

They let you bet after drafting starts?

yes and the draft is crucial, and there's usually a short gap of a bunch of seconds before game starts after it's over where they still take bets as well

been sweating a lot due to dfs and noticed a bunch of times during draft there would be a big dog and yet all the chat "woah bad draft for x" "y winning this draft" but in the millenial speak of "omegaul wtf team a" so it takes a bit of time to recognize what they are saying and parse but sure enough the plebs are right more often than not - what drew my attention to it wasn't so much the consistency but the big upsets were usually called during the draft

honestly though, the optimal way would be to create a program that weighs hero strengths and weaknesses against each other to get a draft report and quickly take a position but my "know nothing and bet on the pleb chat" has been quite effective in both observations and practice thus far

That old dota paper that was posted a while back did exactly what youre describing. I remember trying to recreate it and thinking their methodology sucked but I probably did it wrong.

If I remember right it basically scraped data from high level ladder games and generated winrates of all champions with eachother and against eachother, then used them to try and quantify how much synergy both teams had and which team counterpicked more effectively.

You should have a real close look at yourself during this and ask yourelf

Do you gamble because you believe you found an edge that you can exploit

Or if you are a degenerate gambler that constantly needs action

This was an insane draft. Hit C. Edwards Helaire first RB at +4000 for a $500 bet, hit Thomas first OL 6x for 1k each at ~+1100 avg, Ruggs 1st WR a bunch, Hurts no 1R, swift not first rB at +375 so many times, Queen o24.5

Here were first picks, rest were in threads. Results are just from those. When do we get invited on ESPN to share our mock drafts

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/4.../#post55982722

31-11 +38.15u

Doesn't capture how ridiculous it is since that doesn't include the 20k from Edwards-Helaire, only reflects one bet on Thomas, doesn't reflect the million bets Iowa! and I put in on Queen.

Its looking overall like 170k. Thank you Corona virus for putting me in my death bed and leading to me doing a mock draft since there was nothing else to do.

Crowdsource syndicate is so strong right now. Exposing Russian video game basketball to make money, this, bankrupting BetBuilder, destroying Pinnacles prop market limits in the worlds biggest sport that they start offering -125 lines on each side with $100 limits, all the things we crushed last year. It's pretty insane what we've accomplished in such a short amount of time.

yeah man, i'm a degenerate and need to go to GA before I default on my mortage thank you for yet another one of your insightful posts

you think this has legs in lol? haven't read that paper because it got bad reviews

but one thing i've noticed is that the champion win rate does seem to be noise - there's not enough sample size for it to be meaningful and the chance that champion personally led to victory is questionable - i don't think it's necessarily about h2h matchups but rather team dynamics on a holistic level

but what i have noticed is those children in chat with the horrendous "omegaul" and the "pog" commentary are pretty adept at recognizing when one team's special abilities work or don't work well together as well as how they counter each other

still though, it's pretty mind boggling that people who play 12 hours a day and have coaches standing right behind them as they draft would so regularly make what the chat feels is suboptimal - for the longest time i just thought the chat was a bunch of tards who didn't understand the game well enough to know why champion x was banned and why champion y was picked but nearly every time there's a huge upset the chat is pretty much unanimously calling it by the mid point of the draft because they can recognize the synergies

my current theory is that players get tunnel vision about playing who they are comfortable with and start heading down narratives of convincing themselves they can use a champion because "if we just deny them this or do this then it should work" or just a matter of personal comfort thinking "I'd rather play my A game with my best champion than a B game with one who matches up better"

https://www.twitch.tv/lpl will be sweating this chat as well as
- twitch chat much more informative but will be scanning both

next series starts soon, it's a 4 seed vs an 8 seed so we have some major plus odd of -410 vs +298 for the series and -200 +158 for the first game

so will likely just make bets on the dog if they plebs like the draft

now comes the real challenge - avoiding explaining to girlfriend that i'm watching teens play video games to wager on the outcome based on the opinions of a bunch of 12 year olds - when looking at sports data or sweating sports it appears far more respectable

chat was favoring TES heavily (as vegas does too) before draft but during draft pretty indifferent with a lean to WE having a better draft - would normally just fade but at such plus odds that was enough info to take a shot

$5 WE win series at +351
$5 WE +1.5 for series +158 (unsure of math - possibly a noob bet in a best of 5 but only had seconds to get it in and a nice hedge if i'm right but not right enough)
$5 We win game 1 +194

incredibly balanced match all the way through but WE pulled out a win in game 1

not quite sigs baller but getting there

chat seems to like WE again, not by a massive amount but at +207 I put another $5 on WE to win map 2 and another $5 on o28.5 kills for -114, seems a bit high but no real early game or heavily defensive guys (by my own noob preconceptions so decided to try the o/u one more time)

Only on pinnacle or sites that have live bet

Game two was a blowout so both bets no bueno

Went for a walk with gf rather than shamefully explain why I was otherwise occupied and missed game 3

Game 4 just saw draft, chat was mixed so would have bet on we due to huge odds but couldn't live bet on phone

Doing betting through acr

tes won game 4 so were finding some chinks in the armor thus far for a losing slate

Open Price
$20.49



more like IP uh oh

yeah been tracking that, was hoping it pumped to make for a better short target but alas the public seems to understand perfectly

can't believe they spun this out now...

imagine trying to promote a webcast to make fun of an action network article when the response you can give for why it's wrong is, it's the action network what do you expect