knew it was too good to be true with everyone winning yesterday. rsigley and i getting beat up and fubster lost his data. hopefully poogs is doing well on nhl playoff props.

Daily: 0-2-0, -2.14u
YTD: 58-43-12, +17.87u, 132.13u risked, +13.5% ROI

Jose Ramirez homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.

It's so beautiful guys.

My sports data is fine but my personal music library and family photos are hanging by a thread.

I blame you guys, I posted the other day about wanting to heat up my office by overfitting a neural net on some sort of data, so instead of DNRS messaging me politely saying "here's forty years of HRE data along with contemporaneous player projections and line movements from the earliest east coast bookmakers," I entered some random kaggle image classification contest. Turns out the dataset was 500gb. I downloaded it onto a personal storage drive with the intention of moving it around piecemeal but turns out trying to check the directory size on the command line is enough to crash the whole ass thing. Since it was during i/o, it's all dicked up now.

Looks like it's all recoverable as of now so no big deal, will take quite a bit of time though.

Faded your steam DNRS and played Conforto TB +110 over Harper. I continue to undervalue dingers as a % of TBs. Or you overvalue them. Perhaps we will end up meeting in the middle at some point, but with the balls being the way they are these days I'm drifting more and more towards your side of the fence.

We got lucky with them scoring that Conforto hit as an error. Could have gone either way. Wasn't an easy groundball

but then get unlucky with Ozuna hitting a meaningless homerun in the top of the 9th

scammed

a corollary of the theory of total bases is that guys who hit for average are more valuable than sluggers even if the slugger has a higher average expected total bases since so many games are decided 0 zero bases to 1. that's why we always fade harper at + odds

I suspect that's why I end up against some of the syndicate more often than the rest. Who you got, 2015 Ichiro vs 2006 Carlos Pena? Probably same avg TBs right?

Small winning day goes to small losing with Kemps single in the top of the 9th. Pete Alonso's BABIP is now 0.438 after 67 PA. Good job!

TB:
Cain -115 over ozuna LOSS -1.15
harper -115 over conforto PUSH
j. ramirez -115 over haniger (i know) WIN +1
turner +100 over puig LOSS -1
baez -130 over s. castro WIN +1
Rhys Hoskins +100 over Pete Alonso (Bookmaker) LOSS -1
Max Muncy -105 over Kemp (Bookmaker) LOSS -1.05
Arenado -115 over Machado (Bookmaker) WIN +1
Yesterday: 2-4-2 -1.25u
Total: 30-29-13 -0.7u

K:
Aaron Nola u6.5 +100 WIN +1
Yu Darvish u6 -108 LOSS -1.08
Matt Shoemaker o5 -114 LOSS -1.14
Trevor Cahill o4.5 -114 LOSS -1.14
Ervin Santana u4.5 -114 WIN +1
L. Castillo o5.5 -114 WIN +1
F. Peralta K o6.5 -115 (Bookmaker) LOSS -1.15
Y. Kikuchi K o4.5 +105 WIN +1.05
Joey Lucchesi u6 -114 WIN +1
T. Bauer u7.5 -114 LOSS -1.14 (We may need to adjust for the fact that he throws 130 pitches every game for some reason. If he came out at 100 like normal pitchers we'd be 3-0 instead of 1-2 on him. )
Yesterday: 5-5 -0.65u
Total: 85-83-17 -3.22u

HRR:
DeJong HRR +110 over O. Arcia WIN +1.1
J. Peraza HRR +110 over E. Hernandez PUSH
Yesterday: 1-0-1 +1.1u
Total: 67-54-20 +9.04u

sigs, speaking of bauer, how do you normally project a pitchers IP? I always found this to be difficult and slight changes make a big difference. Ive tried projecting pitches thrown as opposed to innings pitched but it didnt help much. I basically just used their season average and adjusted for opponent by their OPS (teams with higher batter OPS will get to starting pitchers quicker, so a pitcher facing a high OPS team will pitch fewer innings) and then did my own fudge factor looking at their recent 3 or so starts. It isnt pretty but it worked. I always did well on these props but feel like I could have done a lot better with better IP forecasts. Maybe incorporate the line/team totals? or the bullpen? Just wondering if you would share how you project a starters IP?

I assume they all start at a certain IP and then adjust based on factors like opponents walk and K rate, their IP, home/away, NL or AL, etc. It works okay except when there's spot starters (which don't really exist anymore since teams don't have a long man) or when the Rays do their start a reliever thing which other teams started doing

I tend to just ignore those games because it's a headache and not worth it.

available at TheGreek some at 5D (which are also at TG)
TB:
Acuna Jr -135 over D. Peralta
P. Alonso +100 over R. Hoskins
JD Martinez -115 over Aaron Judge
Arenado -120 over Machado
Springer -115 over K. Davis
Gallo -115 over Pujols
Conforto -115 over Harper

Looking at my K predictions last night vs. this morning there is a big difference, so something must have changed in the latest update over night. Maybe it will fix everything! I know it's a small market but we are crushing most lines. I'd say 80%, 10% the same, and 10% move the other way.

sorry guys i am letting you down i won't be available to hit the openers at betbuilder so get them for me today. please post to this thread our plays.

https://pastebin.com/CbEC3KS2

Mookie Betts -140 TB over Brett Gardner

Sale u8 -114
Musgrove u5.5 -114
Strasburg u7 -114
Dereck Rodriguez o4 -114
Glasnow u7 -114
Quintana o5 -114
Bundy u6 -114
Flaherty u6.5 -114
Gibson u5.5 -114
Woodruff u6 -114
Barria u4.5 -114
R. Lopez u5 -114
J. Lopez u4.5 -114
McHugh u6 -114
Leake u4.5 -114
Quintana o5 -114

Kinda went crazy on HRR o/u, if any of these are still available. Lost out on a couple as the lines move drastically when betting

All -114 unless noted
JD Martinez o2
Mookie Betts o2
M. Cabrera o1.5
Conforto o2
Rendon u2.5
McCutchen o2
Mancini o1.5
Villar o1.5
Dwight Smith Jr o1.5
Peralta u2
Adam Jones o1.5
Nelson Cruz o2
Mike Trout o2
Alex Gordon u2
Tim Anderson u2
Jorge SOler u2
Wil Myers o1.5
Arenado o2
Piscotty u2
Chapman u2
Altuve o2
Bregman o2
Santana u2
Kipnis u2
Puig o1.5
Votto o1.5

Yeah I got those plus more it seems. My hands hurt

Thanks sigs. I of course normalize for opponent k% but thats for getting the SP k%. I guess I could use it for his IP too. I never used walk rate but its an interesting thought. I never really factor in home/away though, nor AL/NL unless its an interleague game. Thank you for the nuggets though

You missed your favorite player sig. Pete Alonso u2.5 -114 (well its -143 now).. BABIP regression today?

i left a couple off because the prices weren't there when i posted like

Belt o1.5

but I have Alonso over Hoskins today in TB so I can't jinx it with taking the under 2.5 (plus I think that line is fair)

tomg would disagree and say -138 is fair

lets lose all 27 units we got on HRR so far today

No day games, guess I should hit the racing streets like sigley

Monticello has some good early morning races today. Only an 8 horse card.

Benefits of adding horse racing is you can have action 14-15 hours/day instead of waiting all day for games to start. Hoping for the 3 in the 2nd

We got some indiana and Will Rogers coming up in the morning too.

Do you live bet MLB sigs?

one of our interns sent this to me saying these would have been plays when betbuilder opened so i'll use these as plays although some of them may no longer exist as of now

R. DEVERS U2.0 -114
X. BOGAERTS U2.0 -114
L. VOIT U2.0 -114
B. HARPER U2.0 -114
J. REALMUTO U2.0 -114
M. CONFORTO U2.0 -114
R. CANO U2.0 -114
A. RENDON U2.5 -114
D. SMITH U1.5 -114
T. PHAM U2.5 -114
J. CHOI U2.0 -114
D. PERALTA U2.0 -114
K. MARTE U2.0 -114
P. DEJONG U2.0 -114
L. CAIN U2.0 -114
J. SCHOOP U2.0 -114
M. TROUT O2.0 -114
J. GALLO U2.5 -130
Y. MONCADA U2.0 -114
A. GORDON U2.0 -114
C. BLACKMON U2.0 -114
T. STORY U2.0 -114
M. MACHADO U2.0 -114
G. SPRINGER U2.5 -114
K. DAVIS U2.0 -114
M. CHAPMAN U2.0 -114
S. PISCOTTY U2.0 -114
C. SANTANA U2.0 -114
D. SANTANA U2.0 -114
E. ENCARNACION U2.0 -114
M. HANIGER U2.0 -114
A.J. POLLOCK U2.0 -114
C. BELLINGER U2.5 -114
M. MUNCY U2.0 -114
J. WINKER U2.0 -114

risking 39.9u

risking 40.06u*

you really added that all up?

# of bets*1.14 + 0.16 for the one that's -130

math

i wanted that devers one but as soon as i clicked bet it was -167

my fault for sorting by abc and there being so many players from A-M

Cain +115 TB over Ozuna (Bookmaker)
Haniger +115 TB over J. Ramirez (Bookmaker)

I'm hearing a lot of rumors from industry insiders that BetBuilder is on the ropes. All hands on deck meeting today wondering how they can deal with syndicate action

we got about 21k across 92 bets live