FWIW I can't bet on 5d, so I didn't bet it to -5.5. I'm betting on some PPH's which basically copy all of the 5D lines. I used to do BetOnline too but those limits got slashed immediately.

I probably shouldn't have bet MIL -5. I usually only bet 1+ point moves, but was running so hot today. Think we are something crazy like 15-0. I know we haven't lost yet. I think the smaller moves are actually real people betting. The big moves at the indication of the scam.

Saw that MIL at -2.5 on LL and knew it was gonna lose haha. The total on LL opening was 218.5, so hoping the over 215.5 is good.

This stuff is definitely not on the up and up.

And not to throw that sportsbook NFL games under the same bus, but following the same trend SB NFL game bets are currently 15-1 with 2 pending, so yea. Maybe we are just the best coin flip guessers in the world.

If you tried the same trend on bookmaker you'd be at 8-7-1. So if you want a "fair" bet I'd follow BM, but why would anyone want a fair bet on video games.

Whoops and forgot this key info. I started tracking this last Saturday and I noticed fading the steam went 21-0. If you include that and Sunday in, the results get more ridiculous. Close to 90% win rate for NBA.

Possible hypothesis:

a) 5D knows the winner and hopes people will chase steam. My opinion: unlikely, fonbet and SB control the games
b) Fonbet and SB have something in their feed (e.g., they put the live line which is more accurate in there at a certain time) and 5D picks up on it and just processes it automatically not realizing what is happening. My opinion: Maybe
c) Someone knows the games are rigged, has the results and has books that copies 5D's lines so they move the market on 5D to get down more money at other books. My opinion: Unlikely, but not improbable.
d) We are being fooled by randomness and just ran hotter than the sun this week. My opinion: If true I wish I didn't waste it on $500 eSims. You only get so many of these runs in your life (I know probability and this is just a joke)

Anyone have any other theories?

Gotcha, thanks for the info. In the screenshot on my previous post, it showed live total opening 215.5. Curious where you saw the 218.5, was it on a PPH live option?

For c, if someone has the results, they wouldn't need to move the lines in the vast majority of cases, unless you're saying other books will let them re-bet when lines move?

I also wonder why 5d main lines are the only ones that move (BOL and 5d prime are powered by GGbet and barely budge), and why, if they were part of the rigging, they would limit people who are beating the closing line (i.e. losing since this all started last weekend).

I think BOL/5D sports betting prime use a company called Ultraplay

https://ultraplay.co/

GGBet might just be a company that licenses their software or could be the same thing. Lot of PPH's I have use Ultraplay too. They got popular because they started offering tons of eSports odds when it was new. Then they copy the rest of their lines from other books, mostly Pinnacle. They also do dumb things like take 5K bets on off market NBA quarters lines with -102 juice on each side. Or offer soccer totals and spreads with 1 million dollar limits and + odds on both sides for the entire UEFA cup. Or leave up stale super bowl props with $500 limits. Always pay though.

NFL another 2-0 with Giants spread and under. Turns out actually 18-1 on SB eSims not 17-1 now. But totally legit.

Anyone know who runs "livefootballsims". Is that the fake company bodog made whent hey were going to get in trouble with the US govt so they sold it to their shell company? I think they'd be legit so maybe lets not mess with them.

5D does shady stuff (e.g., trying to freeroll the players tournament) but I don't think they're the ones cheating. I wonder if that's why PPH's aren't cutting me off tho. Fading the steam.

5d prime is 5dimes.gg and since BOL e-sports had identical events and odds, I always figured they were the same. You're right though, BOL has the ultraplay subdomain.

Those offerings you mentioned are crazy, but I believe it. During NFL and NBA season, full game team totals were limited to the standard 2k but for whatever reason you were allowed to get up to 11k on 1H team totals haha.

Also, are you on Twitter, or do you have an abnormal imposter?

Perhaps:

e) They set computer difficulty/skill lower for whichever team people bet more $ on

oh yep abnormallydistributed

one thing to look for, sportsbook is now doing nfl knockout tournaments every week. i wonder if those will be more legit.

the one loss we have was during a game where they were pausing during half time to get 2H bets. all the other ones no pausing during half time.

e) also possible as today I've seen a 19.5 (kings), 15.5 point (pelicans) dog win outright which is pretty crazy. Pelicans just won by 16.

FWIW I ran the chance that we can observe the NBA record of 76-31 by pure chance using a binomial calculator (close enough approx, some games where we bet total and spread wouldn't be independent, but not gonna affect this huge)

If we assume 50/50 chance of picking correct, P(X>=76 over 107 games) is 0.0000080143
or about 8 in a million

lets assume I'm some video game genius and could pick at 60%, then its a 1 in 100 chance.

If you include the 18-1 in football (excluding non rigged BM) the probability is so small they can't express it and just use p < 0.00000000001. Even including BM gives the same thing.

so yea, we are the best. nothing is off at all.

buy my tout package, etc.

Welp two sportsbooks I used that weren't sportsbook.ag stopped offering sportsbook sims today.

Purely a coincidence I'm sure.

Looks like it's over guys. No line movements on eNBA in since the 4:35 am game.

Its been a great run. I'll leave it up for historically purposes but it looks like the riggage is now going on behind closed doors.

Is your cat doing better?

Also, nice job figuring this out.

If anyone wants a free arb, 5Dimes have inexplicably opened DragonX as a +215 dog whereas every other book has them as -325 favorites (and their opponents as +250 dogs).

I got banned for betting on those line errors.

Hats off to you Sigs. I feel strongly that they tampered with one of the games last night based on the new exploit. It may be worth not posting those too far in advance or even mentioning the source.

Yeah I'm almost positive they manipulated the GS/PHX game that u had going under. With about 3 minutes left in the 2nd qt the combined score was in the 80's and the under 219.5 looked like a sure thing. Suddenly the stream goes offline for about 20 seconds and when it comes back there was a scoring onslaught for the rest of the game. Both teams combined for nearly 80 points in the 3rd qt and the total finished at 237.

The MIL @ PHI game yesterday did the same thing. First half was on pace to go under (101 total on 230.5 total), game went offline at the half for about a minute right before the half, came back and in the 3rd quarter and scoring out of control. (68 and 65 in 3rd and 4th quarter). I'm assuming they switched the difficulty to pro from all-star, but I don't know enough about how NBA2k works to know if that's possible.

Kinda our fault for betting into an obvious scam.

What is shady is all the movement has suddenly stopped which makes me think the bookmakers know something is going on, but instead of not offering the bets they go and start offering even more (Cyber Series) from the same company. A book unknowingly offering rigged games is forgivable, but if they realized it and then go and add more - that's a controversy.

I agree very fishy.

They also did the same in the HOU/UTA game midway through the 1st qt but that game still went over like you picked. The pausing makes me think that the games aren't prerecorded and they dont know the exact outcome but they can try to get close to an intended outcome by altering settings before/during games. Easier difficulty for more scoring and harder for less, turning fatigue on/off, and adjusting coaching strategies for each specific team which would alter that teams pace, defensive assignments (playing tight or loose defense) and rotations among other things. So based on those adjustments they have a pretty close guess on how the game will go which is why the in-play lines change right before tip to show more of an accurate line. But if it the game isn't going the way they intended they have the ability to go offline and make further adjustments if they want.

The books are definitely in on the scam now. For the first few weeks 5d (my book) would have plenty of legitimate line changes. I would see line changes all the time immediately after betting on a spread or ml. But for the past week that has stopped completely. Almost literally zero line changes from the time they post the line up until tip. 5d also used to offer in-play lines on their main site for every single game. But since late last week that changed and they only offer in-play on the main page for 1-2 games a day probably to limit the ability for someone to exploit an in-game bait and switch. Seems like the first few weeks not all the books were truly plugged in on the scam and were being semi-genuine with how they handled lines. But something definitely changed in the last 7 days and now they are all in on it. The results of games have also gotten a lot more weird the past week where we now see huge favorites outright losing a lot more. Whereas during the first 3-4 weeks that was extremely rare.

I guess your best strategy could be to post on your site like 5 minutes before the game or maybe even create a discord page where u could post the bets for other bettors to see and then only use the site to show the results. Since discords can be invite only that would limit the ability of someone from one of these books from seeing the plays on the site and countering with a bait and switch result.

I found a new site that has a bunch of line moves similar to how old 5D used to have. Gonna test it out and see what happens.

Do you think we should write an article for the NYTimes exposing this or will they bury it to protect Russia

I think if these were legal sites based in America it would be worthwhile to expose them on a grand scale since it could actually be damaging and lead to possible legal ramifications. But the sites we are talking about are offshore sites that are somewhat viewed as blackmarket betting for Americans. So because of that idk if exposing them would result in anything since there is no one really legally governing them and they play by their own rules. If anything I think it would result in them just continuing to scam but covering their tracks better and closing all loopholes. Informing sites like SBR and other betting review sites also wont help much because they are all in the pockets of these offshore sites so it would just be swept under the rug. Which is why I think the way to hurt them the most is to scam the scammers and make their scheme backfire. And once all loopholes are closed then just stop betting on the scam entirely and wait until there are scam-proof options to bet on or real sports come back

I think it's over

Last 2 days for NFL 3-3-1 and hardly any moves
NBA only up ~$470 after averaging 5k a day

Maybe we shouldn't have exposed this, but it's too late now. Until the next scam or real sports come back.

Very impressive work sigs

Looks official this time. lol