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Old 04-12-2020, 07:28 PM   #4376
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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this seems rigged.

jerami grant picked up his dribble, moved his pivot foot multiple times, faked a shot 5x, and then just started dribbling again. Refs didn't call a double dribble. Also no one bothered to guard him when he was doing all of this. Just letting him shoot the three.
Where are you watching the fonbet games?
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Old 04-12-2020, 07:30 PM   #4377
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

https://www.twitch.tv/fonbet_nba

raptors down by 4 at the half (48-44) but they were down by 9 with a minute left. fred van fleet went to pass the pass up court after a defensive rebound and somehow chucked it into the stands behind his own basket. very normal for him.
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Old 04-12-2020, 07:42 PM   #4378
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

kawhi putting this team on his f'ing back.

okc quickly went up by 9 and now it's all tied up

Last edited by DefNotRsigley; 04-12-2020 at 07:50 PM.
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Old 04-12-2020, 08:09 PM   #4379
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

WOW KAHWI TYING IT WITH 1.5 left

under's done, but tor still live. 88 points at the half and now 210 going into OT
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Old 04-12-2020, 08:25 PM   #4380
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

kawhi just sent us to a 2OT then a 3OT

this game is never gonna end

lets fade the NHL steam and take

Flyers team total o2.5 -140

Even tho the under lost here and Tor might lose I still believe in the system. Mostly because I'm bored.
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Old 04-12-2020, 08:36 PM   #4381
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

You guys are missing out on the NFL fun. Had Cleveland vs Pitt, down 21-0 and they come back and win 25-24 in the last 16 seconds!

Next game KC favored by 7.5 over Oak.
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Old 04-12-2020, 08:56 PM   #4382
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

TOR wins 140-137 with Kawhi hitting 2 FT's with 1.9 seconds left to ice it

Flyers score their third goal early in the third (and just added a 4th)

Unstoppable system except for that one time it was stopped
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Old 04-12-2020, 09:02 PM   #4383
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Sigley what did you do with your cats when you were in the hospital?

And how much did it all cost? Curious how the average American can afford to spend a week in a hospital. As I understand, it can run thousands per day.
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Old 04-12-2020, 09:06 PM   #4384
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Colorado Avalanche Over 2˝ -105 vs Florida Panthers

next fade the steam special

I wonder if I gave it to my cat though. She hasn't looked good recently.

No idea on total cost. I randomly get bills that say this was $2000 but most of it was paid just give us $30. When I was on my death bed they kept text messaging me bills too for random amounts like $72. They also charged me $120 for an IV bag but I never got an IV so not sure where that came from.

I have top tier health insurance for ~750/month so not much.

Looking at the bills so far they billed me ~7k for just going to the hospital twice and trying to get a test. As of now I only paid $600 or so and my deductible is only 1k/year max out of pocket. Also my health insurance people called me and they're like are you on medicare or any other type of funds to pay some of this.

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Old 04-12-2020, 09:36 PM   #4385
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

can't be stopped

3rd goal to tie with 57 seconds left after putting the second goal in with 3 minutes left in the 3rd
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Old 04-12-2020, 09:43 PM   #4386
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

lets get these Pacers +14.5 anti steam fade
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Old 04-12-2020, 09:49 PM   #4387
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Carolina TT o2.5 over Ducks -105
Carolina/Ducks o5.5 +110
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Old 04-12-2020, 10:10 PM   #4388
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

wow HOU gets to the line 7 times in the 1Q, Ind 0 times.

Can't even get homefield advantage here
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Old 04-12-2020, 10:34 PM   #4389
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

pacers making a huge comeback

down 21 at the half and now within 8

Brooklyn Nets/Utah Jazz Under 180˝ fade that steam. went crazy from 177.5 to 180.5 in a minute
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Old 04-12-2020, 10:34 PM   #4390
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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I wonder if I gave it to my cat though. She hasn't looked good recently.
This has been fairly widely reported.
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Old 04-12-2020, 11:02 PM   #4391
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

i think the system is dead after losing last 3

random russian playstation 4 basketball site is on to us

RIP Kyle Larsons Nascar career after dropping the forbidden word with a hard R on iRacing
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Old 04-13-2020, 12:28 AM   #4392
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Got the last under to get back above 1k, praise be instacart delivery people so we can still tip them.

Now that I'm not dead lets finish this NASCAR thing. Before we understand how to construct neural networks, we need to understand logistic regression first. I combined some of my notes together so we can review them. Ask any questions. We will use this idea to build what a NN is next. Also I'm not consistent on labeling my vectors, I apologize. If I know it's a vector I don't bother labeling it but I tried to label some of them for you to make it clear.

Key things to attend to:
- What do we use logistic regression for
- The cost function, cross-entropy
- Why gradient descent works
- L2 vs L1 regularization and which could be useful for our problem.

http://crowdsourcesyndicate.info/LogisticRegression.pdf
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Old 04-13-2020, 01:07 AM   #4393
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/....1991.10475798

anyone read this? reading The Drunkards Walk and it cited that as an example of inefficiencies in NFL point spreads

is obviously super old but may be a good starting point to read and then via google scholar find the current papers out that cite it and go from there

figuring someone here already read though
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Old 04-13-2020, 01:19 AM   #4394
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

The paper is used as in an example in Gelman's famous Bayesian Data Analysis book. The process from the paper is a common one (use empirical data, make an assumption, use it to approximate the other data - kind of like prior x likelihood with the prior being the empirical and likelihood being normal distribution in this case), but I feel the main issue is that football scores aren't continuous and the points aren't worth the same. So while it can approximate a probability of an event, there's obvious issues.

It would be interesting to see if the same results are true today. IIRC (haven't read it since grad school) the paper used point spreads from the early 80's which were probably super inefficient relative to now.
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Old 04-13-2020, 10:30 AM   #4395
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Originally Posted by HolidayInTheSun View Post
And how much did it all cost? Curious how the average American can afford to spend a week in a hospital. As I understand, it can run thousands per day.
'For the 2020 plan year: The out-of-pocket limit for a Marketplace plan can't be more than $8,150 for an individual.' ~healthcare.gov


All the sob stories about americans with gov't approved insurance owing $700k for whatever procedures are complete BS.

I mean, I know from experience they send you the bills showing what was supposedly done but you don't actually owe that amount, only whatever your plan's annual maximum is.
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Old 04-13-2020, 11:03 AM   #4396
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense View Post
'For the 2020 plan year: The out-of-pocket limit for a Marketplace plan can't be more than $8,150 for an individual.' ~healthcare.gov


All the sob stories about americans with gov't approved insurance owing $700k for whatever procedures are complete BS.

I mean, I know from experience they send you the bills showing what was supposedly done but you don't actually owe that amount, only whatever your plan's annual maximum is.
until the insurance claims you are out of network and sticks you with a 200k+ bill.

https://time.com/5555988/medical-bills-out-of-network/

just because your experience was not that bad does not mean everyone else's are bullshit.
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Old 04-13-2020, 12:44 PM   #4397
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

The out of network thing is the loophole I think. I had kidney stones a long time ago and it was jammed in the urethra so they had to go in with lasers to break it up which required anesthesia and some guy sticking a laser up the hole. I think now they can use sonic waves to avoid this, but it was ~2004.

Here is the weird thing. My doctor was in network. The place we did the procedure was in network. Anesthesiologist? Out of network. Staff inside the place who just asked me I'm okay? Out of network. I never bothered to ask ahead of time since I was told the place was in network and I was a health care newbie.

I complained and they're like give us $150 instead of $3000 and we good. I didn't even say I didn't want to pay or anything, I just asked what is going on and they immediately cut the price so that was nice.

To continue the unkillable theme I remember waking up from the anesthesia to a lot of concerned faces. Apparently they tried to wake me up multiple times and I wasn't waking up and they thought I had a reaction to it and was dying. But luckily I'll never die.
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Old 04-13-2020, 12:50 PM   #4398
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Cleaning up the players file. This is a disaster if you downloaded it. Essentially what I did was manually open it up in Excel, put a movie on, and just a lot of sorting, filtering, and fill down. There were ~9000 entries but it only took about an hour thanks to me using excel once in college.

Here is what I produced, what do you think?

http://crowdsourcesyndicate.info/Nas...rs-Cleaner.csv

There's room for improvement, but essentially what I did was create two columns. One is for the player so we can associate all bet types (to win, top 5, top 10, etc.) to a single individual. And then a Bet Type which determines if it's a Head to Head, Win the Race, Top X, etc.

I imagine a sort of nesting with bet type at the top, then underneath each bet type we can have a player.

There might be some errors as I did it manually, but they will come out later.

The next thing to do is to merge the tournaments and players with the lines. This will be a simple couple lines script. Then we can work on a website while we brush up on the statistics we will use.
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Old 04-13-2020, 01:00 PM   #4399
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

And if anyone wants the section from the Gelman book I mentioned that talks about the article rickroll mentioned

http://crowdsourcesyndicate.info/Gelman-Football.pdf

Lets use this horrible time in the world to make ourselves better. I can answer (most) any questions about it.

I personally think the process/methods behind the football paper are important. Their results not so much.
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Old 04-13-2020, 02:07 PM   #4400
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

and you guys thought he was never coming back!
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