DeGrom u8 -114
Teheran o5 -114

Trevor Story HRR +105 over Belt

damn you're on that old school ****. i guess if it ain't broke, though...

Isn't there an inordinate amount of race fixing in harness racing?

I haven't changed my algorithm in 6 years, SVM with the kernel trick for nonlinear input spaces and supervising it is really effective though for this type of data. There might be better ones, but I think it would be a negligible difference. The key part is what are your valuing and feeding it IMO.

Harness isn't fixed AFAIK, but the conditions of the tracks are really bad. There's only one track (Meadowlands) that doesn't have bias. Harrah's track has been pretty broken since Sept of last year where you could blindly bet the 5 and you would have won ~$700 on a $2 bet.

I don't think the market caught up yet, since I just hit a 20/1 there. At that track like 83% of my bets are on the 5 since it opened a couple weeks ago.


Also hit a nice 8/1 on R1 for $715 and the $1380 in the 5th. It's because they don't re-invest the harness money back into the track so they fall apart.

The other issue is a lot of the horses are just horrible. There's so many racinos that need horses and they all get run into the ground. Some of them race multiple times a week. The quality would be better if the cards were smaller and less tracks, but until the rules change about racino's that will never happen.

A third issue is pool size. At Saratoga TBred you can bet 1k and barely move the pool because the WPS pools are ~500k. Most Harness are in 5-10k and 10k for exacta except for Woodbine (30k ish) and Meadowlands (50k-100k)

Some tracks like Yonkers I feel are unbeatable in WPS, but there's value in the exotic pools.

Yeah as long as you can model nonlinear relationships I guess it's all close enough for jazz. I feel like getting a bunch of data for something silly like total K's and trying to get a neural net to overfit on it. Back in January the plan was to reimplement the markov chain simulator for baseball but instead of using a lookup table, create a custom kernel that models batter/pitcher interactions but getting past the first few innings was too hard for my pea brain to conceptualize, especially in the NL. Also it required a lot of programming which I'm not good at.

Ramos HRR -105 over Inciarte
Inciarte HRR u2.0 -135

Cano HRR -105 over Acuna Jr
Ramos HRR -115 over Inciarte

This is amazing. We might be positive in all three props today.

If you guess total bases would be the one prop we kill today, congrats!

TB:
Arenado -125 over Belt WIN +1
Nelson Cruz -115 over Cabrera (2010 throwback) WIN +1
Bryce Harper -135 over S. Castro WIN +1
K. Marte o Tatis -120 (Had a nice 5-0 lead and ended up tying 5-5)
Goldschmidt -110 over Votto WIN +1
Bellinger -115 over Yelich WIN +1
Yesterday: 5-0-1 +5u
Total: 28-25-11 +0.5u

K:
Rodon u5.5 -114 WIN +1
Tanaka o6.5 -114 LOSS -1.14 (5K in 2 then implosion, ok)
Morton u7 -114 WIN +1
Stroman o5 -114 PUSH
Velasquez o5 -114 LOSS -1.14
Urena o3.5 -114 WIN +1
Jordan Zimmerman o4 -114 LOSS -1
David PRice o6 -114 WIN +1
Kluber o6.5 -115 (Greek and others), o7 is good too (apparently not) LOSS -1.15
Max Scherzer u8.5 +100 WIN +1
Jake Junis u6 -114 WIN +1
G. Cole u8 -114 LOSS -1.14
Marco Gonzales u4 -120 WIN +1
Eric Lauer o4 -114 WIN +1
Chacin o4 -103 LOSS -1.03
Mikolas u4 -103 WIN +1
Greinke u6 +120 PUSH
Striping K o5 -114 (classic 8 inning 3 K start) LOSS -1.14
DeGrom u8 -114 LOSS -1.14
Teheran o5 -114 WIN +1
Yesterday: 10-7-2 +2.12u
Total: 80-78-17 -2.57u

HRR:
Abreu +120 over Voit WIN +1.2
S. Marte HRR +145 over A. Eaton LOSS -1
J. Candelario HRR +125 over B. Buxton PUSH
E. Encarnacion HRR +105 over M. Brantley LOSS -1
Trevor Story HRR +105 over Belt WIN +1.05
Cano HRR -105 over Acuna Jr LOSS -1.05
Ramos HRR -115 over Inciarte WIN +1
Yesterday: 3-3-1 +0.20u
Total: 66-54-19 +7.94u

Daily: 6-4-1, +0.98u
YTD: 58-41-12, +20.01u, 129.99u risked, +15.4% ROI

Well done one and all. Got a little hosed by guys who DNS and their oppo going yard, but so it goes. I'm getting so small on these I'm more encouraged by the group win than my own results, and since we all seemed to align today even if I didn't play the lines that DNRS had adjusted probably before I even woke up, I'm happy about the results.

TB:
Cain -115 over ozuna
harper -115 over conforto
j. ramirez -115 over haniger (i know)
turner +100 over puig
baez -130 over s. castro

they really opened betts -115 over villar. got in a bet before it got destroyed to -150

Where are you getting these at Rsig?

they were all available at The Greek when I posted. I got better on some since I posted the line at the current time after I bet.

I think some are at 5D now, just checking they still have baez/ramirez

T. Bauer u7.5 -114
Aaron Nole u6.5 +100
Yu Darvish u6 -108
Matt Shoemaker o5 -114
Trevor Cahill o4.5 -114
Ervin Santana u4.5 -114
Joey Lucchesi u6 -114
L. Castillo o5.5 -114

I feel good about today guys even though Villar is beating Betts

Great work by morning crew crushing the early TB market. Everything looks good to me, just one play available that I still like.

Pujols TB +100 over Gallo

Gonna have to head out soon can you guys get the HRR market sharpened up for me

https://pastebin.com/754CeHUQ

Just post plays to this thread, use ~20c for a min edge tomg fudge factor margin of safety

I'll be late today, dealing with a potentially massive data loss

not much out there so far

DeJong HRR +110 over O. Arcia

Is today a glimpse into the future? Bet Builder only posting half the pitchers, so many HRR's of people who are not playing

All the games posted and only one more looks good to me

J. Peraza HRR +110 over E. Hernandez

and one K

Y. Kikuchi K o4.5 +105

What a disappointing day.

Found couple more

Total Bases:

Rhys Hoskins +100 over Pete Alonso (Bookmaker)
Max Muncy -105 over Kemp (Bookmaker)

Tim Anderson HRR u2.0 -114 BB

TB: Arenado -115 over Machado (Bookmaker)
F. Peralta K o6.5 -115 (Bookmaker)

I wonder if Pete Alonso will be able to maintain his 0.470 BABIP