Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting - Page 167 - Sports Betting

5 got steamed down to 6/5, but won pretty easy. Sat in the back for the first half and then just dusted everyone. 6 got nosed out for 2nd. Result: 5/1/6

Win: +130
Exacta: -60
Total: +110

Race 6:
$100 Win on 7
$30 Exacta 7 with 5 (no box)
$10 Trifecta 7 with 5,3 with 5,3

These fields are so small which is why I try to avoid harness until mid-April. Six horses every race and only one or two are quality horses.

Quote

03-15-2020 , 09:27 PM

#4152

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

7 wins, 1 got in there to ruin the trifeca. All our horses are going off as favorites, so pay out is kinda small. Need some unsharp money in there. When we bet they're 5/1 or so but then goes off as 7/5

Result: 7/1/3/5

Win: +140
Exacta: -30
Trifecta -40

Total: +180

Race 7:
$100 win on 5 (current'y 7/1, lets see what happens)
$30 Exacta 5 with 3 (no box)
$10 Trifecta 5 with 3,2 with 3,2

Quote

03-15-2020 , 09:43 PM

#4153

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

This track is the worst. 5 leaves the gate as a 6/1 and then on the final stretch it's magically 7/2. I know it's shitty tote board software and not a scam, but how about re-investing some money into the track.

Result: 5/4/7/1

Win: +390
Exacta: -30
Trifecta: -40
Total: +500

I missed race 1, but we've picked 5/6 winners so far and only 1 exacta (race 2 before I started posting). EZ Game. Two races left.

Race 8:
$100 win on 3 (currently 4/1)
$30 Exacta Box 3,1

Quote

03-15-2020 , 10:11 PM

#4154

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

4 (2/1) got the 3 (3/1) by a head, Result: 4/3/7/1. Surprising since the 4 barely made it to the gate in time.

-160
Total: +340

Last race.

Race 9:
$100 Win 6
$30 EB 6,2

Quote

03-15-2020 , 10:26 PM

#4155

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

6 was in the mass of horses vying for second at the end. Result: 9/2/3/5/6

+180 on the card and gonna get ~$100 or so back in rake back. I think we got the handball money back finally between this and rugby. We did it guys.

Quote

03-16-2020 , 05:29 AM

#4156

Reveen

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 119

Lawn bowls is appearing on the front page of Betfair at the moment due to a lack of events. LAWN BOWLS! I've seen everything now.

In-Play

Craig Newton v Penny Strong

Coming up

Penny Strong v Billy Jackson
Craig Newton v Billy Jackson
Penny Strong v Craig Newton

It appears to be a unisex round robin?

Quote

03-16-2020 , 11:05 AM

#4157

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

Arrived back in Vegas, it's a ghost town. Looks like tough times ahead. Hope you saved that Super Bowl prop money.

I have some to-do's like re-do my front end, create some new views (Total BAses v9.7), but what is the point if sports never comes back. What are productive things we can do

Quote

03-16-2020 , 11:36 AM

#4158

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,294

write our wills

Quote

03-16-2020 , 11:44 AM

#4159

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

TomG how much bankroll boost are you getting without all the birthday parties? Or are those still going on

Quote

03-16-2020 , 11:50 AM

#4160

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,294

i stockpile and regift toys so actually no birthday parties is a net loss for me

Quote

03-16-2020 , 01:36 PM

#4161

parisron

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 19,783

Quote

03-16-2020 , 01:45 PM

#4162

LasFuentes

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 1,889

Quote

03-16-2020 , 02:54 PM

#4163

tothemoon80

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 21

is it time to become e-sport experts ?

Quote

03-16-2020 , 05:40 PM

#4164

critiakx2

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 349

I think some of the hockey "simulations" on twitter are simply average goals +/- rand. Model below somehow spits out partial goals for each game (DET beats FLA 2.02 - 2.01 in G5 of round 1 lol) then determines series winner.

https://twitter.com/ChartingHockey/s...93250614370306

Quote

03-16-2020 , 06:09 PM

#4165

NajdorfDefense

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 17,563

I withdrew all my onshore gambling accounts to do some real gambling this week: 3x levered ETFs on stocks, gold, oil, lean hogs, Zinc, coffee futures. Gonna reinvest profits in a stable of whores, seeing a lot of cheap asset plays thanks to Some of the Parts analyses.

Quote

03-16-2020 , 06:33 PM

#4166

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

Lets build a new NASCAR model together

I put some of the data here

http://crowdsourcesyndicate.info/

And we can work through these step by step. It should take a couple hours to write up each one and I'll try to do one or two a week. I'll include all the code and theory behind the math when it comes to modeling.

Download the data (Nascar H2H lines from 2012-present) and the first thing we can talk about is how to clean it, because it's a disaster

Quote

03-16-2020 , 07:18 PM

#4167

lvr

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 2,743

at least it's my last year

Quote

03-16-2020 , 07:48 PM

#4168

JSkelts

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 623

Quote:

Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley

Sounds interesting, I'd be down to help.

Quote

03-16-2020 , 08:17 PM

#4169

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

hopefully the knowledge will help people in general with these type of bets

e.g., horse racing, MMA, Formula 1, ski'ing

I was going to live cap us some Pompano Park tonight but every race has 6 horses and all the horses are 10 years old.

The last race the combined age of the 1-3 horses was 40 years old.

Most horses retire after 4 years.

Quote

03-16-2020 , 08:30 PM

#4170

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

but if you want a lock for Race 4 fade #5

going up tons in class and getting steamed becaus epeople are just looking at recent wins

I'd go 8 and 2

Quote

03-16-2020 , 08:36 PM

#4171

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

#5 was in last, tries to accelerate, goes wide and breaks 1/4th of a mile into the race and gets disqualified lol
8 wins easy.

see horse racing isn't dead.

Quote

03-17-2020 , 12:17 AM

#4172

DicedPineapples

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2020 Posts: 152

Quote:

Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley

Dude! That's super exciting, I'm all in on this.

Quote

03-17-2020 , 01:11 AM

#4173

rickroll

oddly catty

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 22,760

how did i miss that post? we have our own website now lol

will check out when i get a chance and see how much unsolicited bad advice i can give

Quote

03-17-2020 , 03:07 PM

#4174

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

First update:

http://crowdsourcesyndicate.info/#Cl...urnaments-file

I went through and cleaned up the tournaments file. Usually I'll just use R because it's easier, but I tried it with Python. It wasn't too bad. The code isn't optimal, but it works. All the thought process and code is included and at the end we have a "clean" file!

Next, we will clean up the "Players" file.